Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST SAT MAY 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHFINESS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TO SHIFT ENE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS SURFACE HIGH TO PRODUCE AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TO SWING WNW...BRINGING BACK A
MOIST TROPICAL ESE WIND FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 0715Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW
ROTATING BETWEEN THE EASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. ACCORDING TO GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS CUTOFF LOW IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE ENE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY SUNDAY...THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW (SUBSIDENCE AREA) IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AND
LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS.

SO FAR...SUNDAY LOOKS AS THE DRIER DAY OF THE WEEKEND...WHILE FOR
TODAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND AS AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DOMINATES. LATEST CIMSS-
TPW IMAGERY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...CONFIRMED A DRIER AIR MASS
ENTERING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER USVI LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. THEN...IT WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...PREPARE
YOURSELF FOR A PLEASANT SUNDAY...WARM TEMPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BUT
MODERATE HUMIDITIES VALUES.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE A BIT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKDAYS OF THE MONTH OF JUNE. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
EVENTS/RAINFALL EPISODES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT JMZ THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TSRA. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR JBQ/JSJ AND JPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 310841
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST SUN MAY 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...CUTOFF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE CREATING A CONVERGENCE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY.

MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP DOMINATING
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE A LOW
TO MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE CWA BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAKNESS PASSING BY THE
LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A FLUCTUATION OF ENE TO ESE FLOW
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT THIS HOUR...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A TONGUE
OF DRY AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW ROUGHLY LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF SAINT MAARTEN. THIS DRY UPPER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS TRANSLATES TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...LIMITING CONVECTION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

BOTH RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND IR 3.9 IMAGERY...SHOWING ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS AND LINES OF CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL...DRY AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. SO...ENJOY
THE LAST SUNDAY OF MAY 2009...WITH PLEASANT WEATHER...NICE ENE
BREEZE...MODERATE RH AND DEWPOINT VALUES ON THE UPPER 60S.

ON THE OTHER HAND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
WHILE INTERACTING WITH MID TO UPPER PERTURBATIONS PASSING BY THE
CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS PERCEIVE TO AFFECT
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

QUICK MARINE OVERVIEW...EXCELLENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR ALL NEAR
SHORE COASTAL WATERS.

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON JUN 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL THEREFORE PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BRING FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
(TUTT) WHICH SAGS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN INTO
THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS WERE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MEANWHILE
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING LOW LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT THIS
INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO AID IN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE DAY. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...DO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LESSER SHOWERS ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. DO
STILL HOWEVER EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AN LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AS WELL AS PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ALONG EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

ON ANOTHER NOTE: TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM
ANNUAL AVERAGES OF TROPICAL STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES
IN THIS BASIN ARE 11... 6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY. THE 2009 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON HURRICANE OUTLOOK (AS OF 21 MAY 2009) CALLS FOR
9-14 STORMS...4-7 HURRICANES...AND 1-3 MAJOR HURRICANES. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND PRODUCT UPDATES CAN BE ACCESSED ON THE WEBSITE
http://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.


THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2009 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
--------------------------------------------------------------
ANA AH- NAH LARRY
BILL MINDY
CLAUDETTE CLAW DET- NICHOLAS NIK- O LAS
DANNY ODETTE O DET-
ERIKA ERR- REE KA PETER
FRED ROSE
GRACE SAM
HENRI AHN REE- TERESA TE REE- SA
IDA VICTOR VIC- TER
JOAQUIN WAH KEEN- WANDA
KATE


&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING SHRA ACROSS
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE
SAME PERIOD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 01/1700Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AS OF THE
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...DIURNAL HEATING... LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT OVERALL SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS KNOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020907
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST TUE JUN 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWARDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA... WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY
AND MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH (TUTT) CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...THEN SOUTHWARDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE
WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. FURTHER EAST... SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A FAIRLY
DECENT LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 33 WEST THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN...WEAK
INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICES/PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING EASTWARD
ALONG THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXCEPT FOR THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE SKIES BECAME MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY
CLOUDY. THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED TO BRING FREQUENT
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHOWERS REACHING THE COASTAL AREAS
OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT THIS OVERALL PATTERN TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL AND DIURNAL VARIATIONS...
ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL ENHANCE EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT
THIS TIME...THE INTENSE HEATING IN SOME AREAS WILL MAKE FOR SOME
VERY EXPLOSIVE DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH ISOLATED BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE GENERAL STEERING FLOW OF THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST.

FOR THE LONG TERM...APART FROM THE TRANSPORTATION OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE
AND THE LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY SUGGESTS THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...
AND THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS FEATURE IS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO PRODUCING
PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z IN PASSING
SHRA. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE SAME PERIOD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
02/1700Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ AS OF THE RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF
THIS MOISTURE WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INTERIOR...WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF PR. LATEST TJSJ 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FROM 10-25K FEET AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BUT STILL LIGHT
ABOVE 25K FEET.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 030827
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST WED JUN 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WEST SOUTHWESTWARD JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (TUTT) EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO THE
THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AT AROUND 36W
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS DURING
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THIS MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE
LIKE YESTERDAY...WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS ALONG
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR THE REGION...TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN...INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. THIS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH ISOLATED BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LATEST TJSJ SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN INCREASING TREND IN PWAT VALUES...
FROM 1.36 INCHES ON 00Z JUN 1 TO 1.96 INCHES ON 00Z JUN 3. ALSO THE
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DECENT PWAT VALUES OF
AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
CLOSE TO THE REGION BY THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT FRAGMENTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH THE COASTAL AREAS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CAN THEREFORE BE
EXPECTED ENROUTE TO AND ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST
UNTIL 03/15Z IN PASSING SHRA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST
INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THEREFORE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BTWN 03/17Z-03/22Z. THE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL STEER THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOWARDS AND
VCNTY OF TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ DURING THE AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST THU JUN 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS EXTENDING FROM THE
SUB-TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.S.V.I. AND
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 40/41W...MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH/PERTURBATION OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING...DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/PERTURBATION ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD...APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND IN COMBINATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR...
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH ISOLATED BUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LAST UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS THOSE SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES REMAINS HIGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN WITH US FOR A WHILE...WITH PWAT VALUES OF NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE FA TROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A SHORT LIVED DRY PERIOD IS IN
STORE FOR SUNDAY AND POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NEAR 40/41 WEST THIS MORNING...APPROACH TO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY. STAY TUNED.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051013
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST FRI JUN 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE
SUB-TROPICAL JET IS WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING. BUT THIS RIDGE WILL REFORM BEGINNING TUESDAY TO BECOME
AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER HISPANIOLA AND KEEP FLOW
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...RIDGING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER EXCEPT BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MID LEVELS WILL DRY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MOIST AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP EAST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SUNDAY AFTER
NEXT. LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
WAVE AT 48 WEST IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY MORNING AT ITS CURRENT SPEED. THIS WILL USHER IN THE
BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF MOISTURE THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A AREA OF MOISTURE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THIS DIRECTION AND HAS JUST BEGUN TO BE PICKED
UP BY THE SAN JUAN SOUNDER WHICH REGISTERED A RISE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 1.6 INCHES TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN 04-08Z.
SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE IN THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND AROUND GUAYANILLA. SHOWERS ALSO MOVED
OVER THE USVI LEAVING BETWEEN .03 AN .10 INCHES IN OFFICIAL RAIN
GAGES OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK WAVE. THIS
SHOULD IMPROVE CHANCES FOR GOOD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...ONCE A
WEAK DRY SLOT SEEN IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT PASSES BY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SAN JUAN AIRPORT MAY BE
MISSED...HOWEVER...DUE TO LOCAL OROGRAPHY SO POPS OF 50 PERCENT
WERE LEFT THERE. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEGINNING SATURDAY AND SHOULD
BRING A FAIR WEEKEND TO ALL THE ISLANDS...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE NORTHWEST AND MAY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT IN SAN JUAN AND IT SURROUNDINGS.

ON MONDAY A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE...WHICH HAS BEEN
BREWING A POT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF PANAMA IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE UP CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MODEL DEVELOPS
IT QUITE STRONGLY AND MOVES IT NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY. STRONG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT FORECAST BY ALL THE
MODELS...THE ECMWF BEING ONE OF THE DISSENTERS...HOWEVER...SHOULD IT
DEVELOP...IT WILL PROLONG THE AMOUNT OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OR PERHAPS FRIDAY AND
WILL MAKE FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN IT ALREADY IS. THIS WILL
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA AND PERHAPS SOME FLOODING...BUT MAY
ALSO BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE METRO AREA OF SAN JUAN
AND THE NORTHEAST COASTS THAN ALREADY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MOIST...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
EXPECTED BY THE MODEL NEXT WEEK...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EVEN IF THE LOW DOES FORM...IF
THE ACCOMPANYING CONVERGENCE BAND PEELING OFF ITS NORTHEAST
QUADRANT REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH...IT COULD MEAN JUST AN
ORDINARY WEEK WITH WEATHER NORMAL TO JUNE ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE NO GREAT CHANGES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE GRIDS YET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TISX...TIST...TJSJ...AND TJPS IN PASSING
SHOWERS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST
INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE INCREASING A LITTLE WITH CONTINUED HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OUTER WATERS AGITATED SUCH THAT
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AND THEN FALL SOMEWHAT THROUGH MONDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST SAT JUN 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LOW REMAINS ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH
A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT UNTIL TROUGHING
APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET
IS GENERALLY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND
WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL STATES AND MAY CUT-OFF OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BY
THURSDAY. IT COULD MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS..HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THOROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE AXIS OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE
CROSSES THROUGH 18 NORTH LATITUDE NEAR 51 WEST LONGITUDE. THE
WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY MOISTURE
IS BEST BEHIND THE WAVE. AFTER MONDAY THE AREA REMAINS MOIST AND
IN A GENERAL AREA OF CONVERGENCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS STUBBORNLY REFUSED TO EXIT THE AREA AS
SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER HOVERS NEAR 1.9 INCHES AND NUMEROUS
SMALL SHOWERS DAMPEN MANY PLACES IN NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS DELAY THE PERIOD OF MINIMUM MOISTURE...THE GFS UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY...AND THE NAM UNTIL AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. SO SHOWERS MAY BE A
LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TODAY. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF SUNDAY AS NOW FORECAST. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION OVER
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS. MIMIC
IMAGERY IS SHOWING DRYING AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING STEADILY AT 16 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS AND THIS WAVE SHOULD
ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. NEITHER MODEL MAY
BE SEEING THE FULL EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE IN THE WAVE OR THE
RAPIDITY WITH WHICH IT SETS IN ONCE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS GRADUALLY
ADDS PRECIPITABLE WATER TO THE COLUMN...NOT ARRIVING AT 2 INCHES
UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON TUESDAY. BUT EVEN SO...THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE ISLAND TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE MORE SLOWLY OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT THEY WILL BE ASSURED OF SOME RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

MANY INTERESTING THINGS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS FORECAST WHICH ADD
SOME ELEMENTS OF UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. THE
GFS HAS HAD A PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK...
SPLASHING IT ALTERNATELY AS FAR WEST AS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AS FAR EAST AS JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF 10 DAYS AND EVEN ITS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT A GIVEN.
IN PART THIS DIFFICULTY MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. RECENTLY PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
RECEIVED RECORD AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THERE WAS SNOWFALL...IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA...DUE TO AN UNUSUAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT JUST
MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY
MOVE OVER THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND APPEARS TO FORM A CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
UNUSUALNESS OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE GIVING THE GFS DIFFICULTY. THE
POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE FORMATION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS
DISTANCE FROM THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER...MAY REDUCE SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR US...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING SOUTHEAST FLOW AT
LOWER LEVELS AND COPIOUS MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS IN BOTH ALTERNATE
SOLUTIONS. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL YIELD A
MUCH WETTER SCENARIO THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPERIENCED IN THE
MONTH OF JUNE. AND IN FACT...THOUGH IT IS ONLY THE 6TH DAY OF THE
MONTH...RAINFALL AT SAN JUAN IS APPROACHING THE MONTHLY AVERAGE OF
4.33 INCHES. THE RECORD JUNE RAINFALL IS 10.96 INCHES SET IN 1965.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...THE PRESENCE OF A MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET
ARCHING ANTICYCLONICALLY NORTH OF US IS BRINGING
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT INCREASES SLOWLY
FROM A MINIMUM OF AROUND -2 SUNDAY TO AN AVERAGE OF +3 ON
THURSDAY. BUT MORE SURPRISINGLY THE DIVERGENCE SHOWS PEAKS OF
GREATER THAN +9 OVER SAN JUAN AND HIGHER NEARBY MID WEEK. THESE
POCKETS OF VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAVE BEEN APPEARING DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN OVER 6 CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS AND CAN NO LONGER BE
IGNORED AS NOISE. THEY WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY PLAY A PART IN ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA AND CREATING AREAS OF EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...THAT WOULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF
RAIN.

AT THE MOMENT THE GFS DOES NOT SEE AN END TO THE WET
WEATHER...CARRYING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. RIVERS UP TO NOW HAVE NOT HAD
MUCH TROUBLE HANDLING THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER
ISOLATED AREAS...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE LATER NEXT WEEK SO THAT THIS
SITUATION DEMANDS SPECIAL VIGILANCE.

HAVE RAISED SOME POPS TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE GREATEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS DEPICTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT
MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD INDICATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND WE MAY NEED TO FURTHER ADJUST
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SHOULD MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS BE
INDICATED. THE UNCERTAINTY BEING THAT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO SEND THE TEMPERATURE SOARING ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SAN JUAN
METROPLEX.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TJSJ...AND TJPS IN PASSING
SHOWERS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...WEST...AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. MVFR CONDITIONS AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ...AND TJBQ WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT THE LOCAL BUOYS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 7 FEET BUT
GENERALLY ABOVE 5 FEET IN OUTER WATERS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DRIVE HEALTHY TRADE WIND FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH
GUSTIER WHEN THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THE AREA MONDAY AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VISIBILITY-LIMITING RAIN BECOME MORE FREQUENT.

[cycloneye]

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 071025
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST SUN JUN 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BROADEN DURING THE WEEK AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A MODERATE JET WITH ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE WEEK
CUTTING OFF LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LOW THIS LEAVES ON THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL LIFT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
FRIDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN CAUSING
THE JET CENTERED TO OUR EAST TO BECOME ALMOST NORTHEASTERLY OVER
THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK....BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA OVER
THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH OF PANAMA. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SLIGHTLY IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL HOLD EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A WAVE NEAR 61 WEST IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY AND THE REST OF
PUERTO RICO BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING. A SECOND WAVE NEAR 50
WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
OFF OF THE AFRICAN COAST TODAY WILL NOT REACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE EASTERN FLANKS OF EL YUNQUE THIS MORNING...LEAVING AMOUNTS
THAT RANGED FROM .05 TO .50 INCHES...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER. MIMIC SHOWS THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE WAVE FILLING WITH
MOISTURE VERY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...BUT THE SAN
JUAN SOUNDER SHOWS A SHARP MINIMUM IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT
HAS PASSED THE AREA VERY MUCH LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTED.

DURING THIS EBB OF MOISTURE CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS PREVALENT
AND EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE MORE SEA BREEZE ACTION ON
THE COASTS. THIS MAY CAUSE A LITTLE MORE INLAND ACTIVITY...BUT
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S...MODERATED ONLY BY
THE COOLING SEA BREEZE. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED MAXIMUM IN SAN JUAN
BY 2 DEGREES AND MOST OF THE REST OF THE ISLAND AS WELL TODAY. A
SIMILAR BOOST WAS GIVEN TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO MATCH
MOS GUIDANCE IN SOMEWHAT SOUTHEAST FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE NOW...BUT WILL NOT INCREASE TO
PREVIOUS LEVELS UNTIL THE TROPICAL WAVE...NOW AT ABOUT 61 DEGREES
WEST...MOVES OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS AGREE
THAT DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE AT MID LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE GFS HOLDS IT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS COULD BE AN
INDICATION OF THE SAL LAYER...EVIDENCED FROM THE DUST VISIBLE IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BEHIND THE WAVE. MIMIC IMAGERY HOWEVER
SHOW THE MOISTURE IN THE AXIS OF THE WAVE...WHERE IT IS MAXIMUM...
CURLING BACK INTO THE AIR MASS BEHIND IT...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN WHY
THE MODELS DO NOT DRY THE AIR MASS TOO MUCH ONCE THE WAVE
PASSES...THIS IS ESPECIALLY CLEAR WHEN LOOKING AT THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER FORECAST. MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE WAVE IN A NONE TOO
DISTINCT PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THEN MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
BEST VALUES...WHICH ARE BETTER THAN 2.1 INCHES...ARE SEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PUERTO RICO AND THIS IS JUST AFTER MODELS
REACH THEIR MAXIMUM POP VALUES. ALL OF THIS SAYS THAT SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY BOTH IN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY. THE GFS AND THE NAM
HANDLE THIS MOISTURE DIFFERENTLY PRINCIPALLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WIND FIELDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING A BIAS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS COMPARED TO BOTH THE GFS AND THE QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT
DATA. THEREFORE ONE CANNOT REALLY USE THE STRONGER MOISTURE
SIGNAL OF THE NAM SINCE IT TENDS TO BRING IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. FOR THIS REASON POPS REMAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
IN THE FIRST 5 DAYS.

THE SIGNALS SEEN YESTERDAY IN THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ARE STILL THERE...BUT ARE CONSIDERABLY MUTED...WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT
WEAKER THAN THE RUNS 24 HOURS AGO BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE NOT
DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS VIGOROUSLY.
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE LOW IN THE 06/18Z RUN AND THE 07/00Z
RUN WERE FAIRLY CLOSE...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM WAS GREATLY DIMINISHED IN THE LATTER RUN. SHOULD
BANDS OF MOISTURE DEVELOP EARLY AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA IT COULD
STILL SPELL TROUBLE FOR PUERTO RICO...AND PERHAPS EVEN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT CURRENTLY THESE BANDS DO NOT FORM UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE WEEK IN THE MODELS. STILL...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL APPROACH
FLOOD STAGES MORE FREQUENTLY BY MID- WEEK. NEVERTHELESS IT IS TOO EARLY TO
BE CATEGORICAL ABOUT RAINFALL IN THE AREA WITH CURRENT UNCERTAINTY.
THE GFS ONLY AGREES THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TNCM AND TKPK IN PASSING SHOWERS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ...AND
TJBQ WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFT 15Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND GRADIENTS RELAX...SEAS
DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT FOR NOW SEAS AT BUOY TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...42059...ARE BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.5 FEET. SEAS
IN THE ATLANTIC HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE TIME BEING.
WINDS ALSO ARE REACHING 18 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS SO GRIDS WERE NOT
CHANGED AND EXERCISE CAUTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN DROPPED.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 081020
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST MON JUN 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT...A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALIGNED EAST OF SAINT CROIX...EXTENDING
NORTHWEST THROUGH SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNSET...THIS LINE OF SHOWERS HAS WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...LEAVING
THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...DOPPLER
RADAR DETECTED SOME SHOWERS BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST
COAST...AFFECTING FROM TIME TO TIME THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
FAJARDO...LUQUILLO...AND RIO GRANDE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR 66W
LONGITUDE. THIS WAVE DOESN`T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES. HOWEVER...LATEST CIMSS MIMIC TPW PRODUCT SHOWS
AMPLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.80-2.15 INCHES. MOST OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWS SOME SUBSIDENCE AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THIS WAVE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

IN THE LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND WEAKENING.
IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE POSITION OF THIS THROUGH WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN THE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE DOMINATE BY LOCAL EFFECTS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR...BUT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BEGINNING ABOUT 08/15Z OVER PARTS OF THE
ISLAND AND CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS BY 08/17Z LASTING THROUGH 09/04Z.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 AM AST MON JUN 8 2009

PRZ001-005-006-008>010-082200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0008.090608T1700Z-090608T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...COROZAL...
AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...AGUADILLA...ISABELA...HATILLO...
QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...
HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO
1019 AM AST MON JUN 8 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM AST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...CENTRAL INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...
NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHWEST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY AND WESTERN
INTERIOR.

* FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM AST THIS EVENING

* A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE MONA PASSAGE BY EVENING. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
WAVE...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM AGUADILLA EAST TO SAN JUAN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

* THIS RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

LFR/BCS

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091018
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST TUE JUN 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 71 WEST LONGITUDE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TROUGHINESS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED AS WELL
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND OF SAINT THOMAS. A MID LEVEL VORTEX
WAS DISCERNIBLE IN RADAR IMAGES OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...WHICH WAS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP A MAINLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...LATEST MIMIC
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT STILL SHOWS ENOUGH MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION
WITH THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PEOPLE
AND VISITORS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO NEED TO BE ALERT TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR
RISING RIVERS...CREEK AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
EVEN FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN PLACE...WE
DECIDED TO INCREASE MAX TEMP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.

COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY MID LEVEL STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECT TO
DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHEAST. THE POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT
THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...WILL CREATE BETTER CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO IN BOTH DAYS. ADDING TO THAT...LATEST SJU-GFS
PROGNOSIS SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IF VERIFY...CELLS WILL MOVE SLOW ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE GOOD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 16-17Z...CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST
AND NORTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WILL DETERIORATE AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN VICINITY OF TJPS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 16-23Z. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 10/02Z AND
SPREAD SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AFTER 10/06Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY UP THROUGH 12 THOUSAND FEET...BUT LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REACH 40 TO 50 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
35-45 KFT

[cycloneye]

2 TJSJ 100900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED JUN 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TROUGHINESS WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

.DISCUSSION...SOME HAZY SKIES WERE VISIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS MAY BE DUE TO RESIDUAL SAHARAN DUST BROUGHT BY
THE PASSAGE FEW DAYS AGO OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE. EARLY THIS
MORNING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AND ANOTHER LINE EXTENDING FROM CULEBRA...NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WERE AFFECTING THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SOUTHEAST PUERTO
RICO...BUT MAINLY OVER MAUNABO...GUAYAMA...AND ARROYO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP A MAINLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT STILL SHOWS ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW...WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO...AN INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR AREA...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...INDICATED A VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. IN FACT...LATEST PROG SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS LIGHT
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. PEOPLE AND
VISITORS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO NEED TO BE ALERT TODAY FOR RISING
RIVERS...CREEK AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND EVEN FLASH
FLOODING.

IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 30 WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE...COMBINE WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WILL PRODUCE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING MORNING SHRA ACTIVITY AT MOST SITES.
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE AT
TJSJ...TIST...TISX UNTIL AT LEAST 14Z. BY AFTERNOON...TSRA EXPECTED
AT TJBQ AROUND 18-21Z WITH AT LEAST MVFR THERE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE VERY WEAK AND FROM THE SE.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 110849
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST THU JUN 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING AN INCREASE ON SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLAND AND THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
HISPANIOLA. THIS WEATHER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED TO A UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING MOST OF THE WEATHER ACTIVITY MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE BUT LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 IS
SUGGESTING THIS BOUNDARY MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE EAST...INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWERS COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOUR. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE ALREADY SHOWING A THIS
BOUNDARY WITH A MORE EASTERLY MOVEMENT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
PROMISE A LARGE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WITH ISO TSRA OVERNIGHT TO CONTINUE THROUGH
13Z AFFECTING PRIMARILY TIST AND TISX WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
AFTERWARDS...LIGHT SE FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER TJBQ WHERE TSRA IN MVFR CONDITIONS 18Z-21Z
AND TEMPO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE INCOMING WEEK. SEAS 3 TO 5 WILL BE AT
AROUND 4 FEET AND WINDS WILL AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUST
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 120902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST FRI JUN 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF SANTA ISABEL...JUANA DIAZ AND PONCE. MOST OF
THESE SHOWER WERE BRIEFED AND DID NOT GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTIONS AND THE USVI IN THE MORNING AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THESE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 55.3 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY
SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT THESE WEATHER FEATURE WILL HELP
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z AFFECTING
TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TISX WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
AFTERWARDS...LIGHT SE FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER TJBQ WHERE TSRA IN MVFR CONDITIONS 18Z-21Z
AND TEMPO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...AT THIS MOMENT TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
PREVAILED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
CHOPPY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO THE SE WINDS THAT HAVE
PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THE LAST FEW DAYS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST SAT JUN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF FAJARDO...LUQUILLO AND RIO GRANDE. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THEY WILL
SPREAD NORTHWEST AFFECTING THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER ONE INCH AS WINDS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
WEATHER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OR LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ UNTIL 10Z.
ALL OTHER SITES VFR FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...LIGHT SE
FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER TJBQ
WHERE TSRA IN MVFR CONDITIONS 18Z-21Z AND TEMPO IFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 12 TO 16 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS BELOW THE 5 FEET. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVE INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1137 AM AST SAT JUN 13 2009

PRC029-031-037-087-103-119-127-139-131830-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0159.090613T1537Z-090613T1830Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
1137 AM AST SAT JUN 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...SAN
JUAN...LOIZA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 230 PM AST

* AT 1135 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA AND VICINITY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND FOR THE NEXT ONE OR TWO HOURS. WITHIN THIS
PERIOD...MINOR FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
STREETS...HIGHWAYS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS
AND URBAN LOCALITIES. ALSO...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF MUDSLIDES
ACROSS THOSE AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1831 6603 1849 6612 1852 6603 1852 6596
1848 6584 1827 6573

$$

OB

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TJSJ 140726
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 AM AST SUN JUN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND TPW IMAGERY SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE
NEARING 70W THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL AREA ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS
ALONG TOP OF THE WAVE AND BROAD TROUGHINESS TO THE NORTH. U/L
REMAINS A COMPLEX STORY WITH UPPER TROUGH AROUND 30N 70W...A SECOND
LOW NEAR 20N 55W AND SEVERAL APPARENT VORTS NORTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS. EXPECT UPPER RIDGING WILL FINALLY ALLOW SOME DRYING IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE FOR LESS
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BACK TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...EXPECTING DRIER AIRMASS ALONG THE TOP AND BACK EDGE OF
TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT SOMEWHAT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY HAZY AIR INTO FA
FOR TODAY...LIMITING CONVECTION TO STREAMERS AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO.

FOR MONDAY...SAME GENERAL PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND MAINLY ISLAND FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOVING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING U/L PATTERN TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS CUT
OFF LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER HISPANIOLA AND THEN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS SHOULD INDUCE SOME LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS WITH
CONTINUED SELY MOIST ADVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TO REVERT BACK TO
THE TROUGHY WET WEATHER OF LATE. AFTERWARD...MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WENT WITH MOSTLY A
CLIMO SCENARIO OUT TO DAY 7 AND 8.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

FXCA62 TJSJ 150913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST MON JUN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER INTERESTING WEEK OF WEATHER APPEARS ON TAP
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. FOR TODAY...AN AREA MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST
INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF "DRYING"
INDICATED FOR EARLY TONIGHT. THEN...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH...OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WITH THIS
FEATURE AND IT SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TIL 17Z. AFT 17Z CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS NEAR
TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER 22Z BECOMING VFR NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BUT MVFR NEAR TNCM AND
TISX DUE TO APPROACHING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

 160917
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST TUE JUN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MOVEMENT IS SLOWER THAN
WHAT WAS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND TUTT LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR LOW LYING
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TUTT WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...
PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...BEFORE LIFTING FURTHER
WEST AND REDUCING SOMEWHAT THESE FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...IT STILL APPEARS THAT AREAS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THIS MORNING...EXCEPT NEAR USVI AND LEEWARDS WERE MVFR IS
LIKELY DUE TO CEILINGS IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST PUERTO RICO TAF SITES
AFTER 16Z AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER INLAND
PUERTO RICO AND PERSIST THROUGH 22Z. HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. AFT 16Z POSSIBLE MVFR NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DRIFT OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.