Florida Weather

[JonathanBelles]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 031448
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
947 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SNOW FLURRIES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...
...STILL COLD WITH NOTICEABLE WIND CHILLS TODAY...

CURRENTLY-TODAY...LARGE MASS OF STRATOCU OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LED
TO A FLURRY OF SNOW FLURRIES ALONG THE NORTH HALF OF THE COAST THIS
MORNING.

MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FLURRY REPORTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN A PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT THAT WILL BE RELEASED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...MEDIA CAN UTILIZE THE MELBOURNE CHAT ROOM FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE AIR MASS IS STILL VERY DRY SO EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THEY SPREAD INLAND.

MAIN ISSUES FOR A MORNING UPDATE WILL BE THE EFFECT THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE ON TEMPERATURES...AND WHETHER GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH LONGER. MODELS FORECAST GRADIENT TO
DECREASE BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST AROUND 30 KNOTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL ISSUE ONE FOR FOR THE COAST. THE LAST
FLURRY EVENT ON 1/24/03 RESULTED IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN
FORECAST SO WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO TWEAK HIGHS DOWN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST.


.MARINE...PLAN TO LET GALE WARNING EXPIRE FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS AT
15Z THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IMPROVING MUCH IN THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL EVEN DETERIORATE NEAR SHORE AS
THE WIND TRAJECTORY VEERS TO THE NORTH. INCREASING FETCH SHOULD
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD A LITTLE MORE WITH HEIGHTS AT 10 FEET OR HIGHER
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.

STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNTIL GRADIENT
STARTS TO EASE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI NEAR SHORE AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MODIFY THE VERY DRY AIRMASS BUT NW INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY STILL SEE
AROUND 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL RH. IN ADDITION...N/NE 20 FT WINDS WILL
APPROACH 15 MPH SO MAY NOT NEED DURATION CRITERIA TO REACH RED FLAG
CONDS. AS A RESULT HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING IN LAKE COUNTY.

MINIMUM RH/S IN THE 40S FRIDAY THEN THE 50S SATURDAY-MONDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW PENETRATES WELL INLAND.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA-BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-
ST. LUCIE-MARTIN FROM 10 AM UNTIL 5 PM TODAY.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY/GLITTO

[dizzyfish]

A flurry of flurries. LOL I like that.

Finally above freezing here - about 38. Took the covers off everything. Still some ice in the birdbath.

[JonathanBelles]

they set a new pressure record in Tally today. 30.77"

[flwxwatcher]

I found this odd story about the Florida cold

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,319971,00.html

[HURAKAN]

Nothing weird. Cold temperatures cause the food in the iguanas’ stomach to ferment creating gases that kill the iguanas. My Meteorologist professor said that this was most common in the 70's when Florida experienced colder and longer periods.

[HURAKAN]

WINTER'S MARK!

[JonathanBelles]

000
NOUS42 KTBW 032117
PNSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-041200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
400 PM EST THU JAN 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT FREEZE FOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

A POLAR AIRMASS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, AND SET THE STAGE FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN IN THE PAST THREE TO FOUR YEARS. THE STRONG
NORTH WINDS PLAYED A BIG FACTOR IN DELIVERING THE COLD AIR TO OUR
AREA, BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, PREVENTED THE TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING EVEN LOWER THURSDAY MORNING.

A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE OCCURRED OVER MOST OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. LOWS THERE GENERALLY RANGED
FROM 22 TO 28 DEGREES. ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY METRO AREA EAST TO POLK
COUNTY AND SOUTH TO THE FORT MYERS AREA, LOWS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30, WITH A ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE BEACHES ABLE TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. HAD THE WIND GONE CALM FOR AN HOUR OR SO
BEFORE SUNRISE, WE WOULD HAVE SEEN MORE WIDESPREAD MID 20S FOR
LOWS. THE MAIN STORY THOUGH WAS THE FREEZING TEMPERATURE DURATIONS,
AS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE COAST
OBSERVED TEMPERATURE READINGS AT OR BELOW 32 FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN 6 OR MORE HOURS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES!

THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME OBSERVED LOWS THIS MORNING.
* INDICATES NEW RECORD

AIRPORTS:

28 THE VILLAGES - SUMTER
26 BROOKSVILLE - HERNANDO
34 ST. PETE ALBERT WHITTED - PINELLAS
31 ST. PETE CLEARWATER - PINELLAS
29 TAMPA INT`L - HILLSBOROUGH
30 VANDENBERG AIRPORT - HILLSBOROUGH
26* LAKELAND LINDER ARPT - POLK (PREVIOUS RECORD 27 IN 1979)
29 WINTER HAVEN GILBERT FIELD - POLK
32 SARASOTA BRADENTON ARPT - MANATEE
30 PUNTA GORDA - CHARLOTTE
32* FORT MYERS PAGE FIELD - LEE (PREVIOUS RECORD 34 IN 1979)

COOP AND AGRICULTURAL SITES:
22 BRONSON - LEVY
22* CHIEFLAND - LEVY (TIED PREVIOUS RECORD OF 22 SET IN 2001)
26* INVERNESS - CITRUS (TIED PREVIOUS RECORD OF 26 SET IN 1979)
24 BUSHNELL - SUMTER
25 BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL - HERNANDO
37 TARPON SPRINGS - PINELLAS
27 PLANT CITY - HILLSBOROUGH
29 DOVER - HILLSBOROUGH
27 BALM - HILLSBOROUGH
30 FROSTPROOF - POLK
28 ONA - HARDEE
28 ARCADIA - DE SOTO
29 NORTH PORT - SARASOTA
29 ARCHBOLD - HIGHLANDS
28* AVON PARK - HIGHLANDS (PREVIOUS RECORD OF 29 SET IN 1981 AND 1979)
32 SEBRING - HIGHLANDS

PRIVATE/HOME WEATHER STATIONS:

25 NORTHEAST CITRUS COUNTY
27 DADE CITY - PASCO
27 LAND O LAKES - PASCO
28 PORT RICHEY - PASCO
30 SEMINOLE - PINELLAS
28 VALRICO - HILLSBOROUGH
28 NWS RUSKIN - HILLSBOROUGH
27 SUN CITY CENTER - HILLSBOROUGH
27 PARRISH - MANATEE
29 MYAKKA CITY - MANATEE
29 DESOTO LAKES - SARASOTA
29 ZOLFO SPRINGS - HARDEE
28 FORT MEADE - POLK
27 POLK CITY - POLK
25 HARBOUR HEIGHTS - CHARLOTTE
30 EASTERN LEE COUNTY
34 ST JAMES CITY - LEE

MARINE SITES:

27 CEDAR KEY - LEVY
36 ANNA MARIA ISLAND - MANATEE
31 VENICE PIER - SARASOTA

* TIED OR BROKEN RECORD

[Patrick99]

Short-lived and warm weather returning in earnest next week.

Unrelated, I love the Key West AFD. They consistently discuss interesting things in their discussions, like interactions between the bay, mainland, and islands.

[JonathanBelles]

I heard there was a fire already in Polk, can anyone confirm?

[Cyclone1]

Yes, fire in Polk.

[feederband]

I heard there was a fire already in Polk, can anyone confirm?

Yup..

[JonathanBelles]

I-4 is at a complete standstill due to Very Heavy Fog mixed with heavy smoke. There are 1-3 fires and at least 9 different crashes, one of which is a tanker which is on fire. Also, unconfirmed, that one of he crashes is a pileup of as many as 30 cars.

[feederband]

I-4 is at a complete standstill due to Very Heavy Fog mixed with heavy smoke. There are 1-3 fires and at least 9 different crashes, one of which is a tanker which is on fire. Also, unconfirmed, that one of he crashes is a pileup of as many as 30 cars.

Fox just showed a quick shot of it...They said 50 cars Three dead ........

[feederband]

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/jan/09 ... polk-city/

[feederband]

Yikes ...It was orginally a controled burn....

[jinftl]

Areas along I-4 and to the south are getting more and more parched...setting up for a bad Spring fire season

http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/4km_main.html

[Cyclone1]

Radar image

Line approaching. It's really thin but it looks pretty heavy. Moving slow.

WV sat image

Lot of moisture behind it.

[JonathanBelles]

I got a Trace of rain yesterday.

[dizzyfish]

Just had a little sprinkle that popped up ahead of the line. Should have the line coming through here in about 45 mins to an hour.

[HurricaneBelle]

More ominous than today's line of t-storms is this discussion from KTBW - we may be headed for the equivalent conditions of a weak-moderate tropical storm:

..DEVELOPING GULF LOW

MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT GULF
LOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH...
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA.

THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE LOW HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY INTO A GALE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BRINGING WINDS OF NEAR GALE FORCE
TO AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL PILE WATER UP
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. AS THE LOW PASSES THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE WATER
ONTO THE COAST.

OTHER HAZARDS WOULD INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES...DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT ALL OR A PORTION OF OUR AREA
WILL BE STRONGLY AFFECTED...BUT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED
TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.