Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Latest on Tropical Storm Earl
000
WTNT32 KNHC 270836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 41.6W
ABOUT 1430 MI...2300 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


000
WTNT22 KNHC 270835
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 41.6W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 30SE 15SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 41.6W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 40.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.2N 44.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.4N 47.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.6N 50.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.2N 53.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 41.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


000
WTNT42 KNHC 270839
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

EARL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION THAT REFORMED AROUND 00 UTC HAS
PERSISTED IN BROAD CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT
AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND INDEED ALL
OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST
WHICH BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 DAYS AND SHOWS
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.

EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A CONSISTENT WESTWARD PATH AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS
STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED
BY HURRICANE DANIELLE...IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AND THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 15.9N 41.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 16.2N 44.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 16.4N 47.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 16.6N 50.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 17.2N 53.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 19.0N 59.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 65.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Gustywind]

Earl not so far from the Lesser Antilles as it continues to travel west...

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 271431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 43.6W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 271431
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION...MODERATE BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FAIR OUTFLOW. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THE OCEAN AND THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL SHOWING
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...BOTH GFDL AND HWRF ARE AGGRESSIVE IN
MAKING EARL AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN 5 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL
ESTABLISHED. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST...
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Gustywind, is there a alert for Guadeloupe?

[Gustywind]

Gustywind, is there a alert for Guadeloupe?

Strictly nothing for the moment in Guadeloupe, no alert Cycloneye (yellow code). Whereas, our pro mets advice us to stay really tuned as we never know.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Gustywind, is there a alert for Guadeloupe?

You tkink that given a possible "new track" (should it verifies first during the couple of hours) as Earl continues straight west...? If this trend continues today and especially tommorow Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda and all the the other islands of the Leewards could be in the cone of incertitudes and even a direct thread Let's wait and see...

[cycloneye]

Lets see what the 5 PM advisory has. Keep us informed here and at the Earl thread.

[Gustywind]

Lets see what the 5 PM advisory has. Keep us informed here and at the Earl thread.

Yeah , let's wait and see. Ok no problem Luis , i will provide you any infos from our island and the Northern Leewards in case of.

[Gustywind]

Please all our friend from the Leewards especially the NORTHERN LEEWARDS! Be vigilant and stay really tuned.
From Stormcarib http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... rtin.shtml

- SxmGIS - Office of Disaster Management Urges Public Vigilance of Approaching Tropical Storm Earl
By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2010 13:06:31 -0400

News Release

Written by Roddy Heyliger, Government Information Service (GIS), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;


For Immediate Release: Friday, August 27, 2010/N121

Office of Disaster Management Urges Public Vigilance of Approaching Tropical Storm Earl

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (GIS) – The Office of Disaster Management is urging the public to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Earl which is approaching the North Eastern Caribbean islands.



The Office of Disaster Management will continue to monitor the progress of the storm system very closely and will inform the public if and when necessary with respect to what actions if any are required with respect to the approaching storm.



Tropical Storm Earl according to the Netherlands Antilles & Aruba Meteorological Service, due to uncertainty on how it will exactly influence local weather conditions, no local effects is expected before Sunday morning.



Tropical Storm Earl is expected to become a Category one Hurricane by Monday midday and is expected to be approximately 160 miles Northeast of Sint Maarten at 2.00pm on August 30.



# # #



Roddy Heyliger

Sint Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)


Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE

P.O.Box 945, Philipsburg, St. Maarten
Cell: 5204217-primary, 5816323-secondary

Public Relations & Communications
Secondary Email: roddyheyliger at yahoo.com

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE
This e-mail message is intended only for the individual(s) to whom it is
addressed. This e-mail may contain information that is privileged,
confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not
the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination,
distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you received this e-mail by accident, please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail and all copies of it.

- SxmGIS - Political parties advised to have plan in place to remove political campaign material event of storm threat
By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2010 12:41:42 -0400

News Release



Written by Roddy Heyliger, Government Information Service (GIS), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;



For Immediate Release: Friday, August 27, 2010/N120



Political parties advised to have plan in place to remove all political campaign material in event of storm threat



GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (GIS) – The Office of Disaster Management is advising political parties participating in the September 17 elections to have a plan in place for the removal of all political campaign material such as political billboards, and flags attached to guard rails in the event of a storm threat to the island.



Billboards could pose a threat to life and property, and the removal includes the complete wooden frame which could become a projectile in the event of a passing hurricane.



Once the all clear sign has been given by the EOC, political parties can proceed with putting the billboards, flags and other campaign paraphernalia back up at the locations where they were previously located.



Political billboards once removed should be properly stored away eliminating the possibility of becoming a danger to persons and property in the event of a hurricane strike.



The removal of billboards and other campaign promotion materials will have to take place when a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued by the relevant authorities.



A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning indicates that the system’s approach is imminent and that deteriorating weather conditions are expected within 36 hours.



So far five systems have already formed for the hurricane season, namely Hurricane Alex, Tropical Storms Bonnie, Colin, Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl.



The remaining names for storm systems are Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter.

The hurricane season runs until November 30.



# # #



Roddy Heyliger

Sint Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)



Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE

P.O.Box 945, Philipsburg, St. Maarten
Cell: 5204217-primary, 5816323-secondary

Public Relations & Communications
Secondary Email: roddyheyliger at yahoo.com

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE
This e-mail message is intended only for the individual(s) to whom it is
addressed. This e-mail may contain information that is privileged,
confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not
the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination,
distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you received this e-mail by accident, please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail and all copies of it.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- SxmGIS - Livestock owners told to take measures to secure animals this hurricane season
By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2010 12:39:07 -0400

News Release



Written by Roddy Heyliger, Government Information Service (GIS), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;



For Immediate Release: Friday, August 27, 2010/N119



Livestock owners told to take measures to secure animals this hurricane season



GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (GIS) – With the 2010 hurricane season having now entered the peak period, the Office of Disaster Management & Preparedness is urging livestock owners to review their plans now of how they will secure their livestock in the event of a hurricane strike.



Livestock owners should make sure that their animal holding areas and other infrastructure are able to sustain a hurricane strike. Any loose material should be securely fastened in order to avoid damage to property and endangering human lives during the passing of a hurricane.



The following tips have been provided by the Office of Disaster Management & Preparedness and Animals R Friends: All cattle should have identification. Identification can be an ear tag, ear notches, neck chain or microchip. Paperwork should also be in order that shows ownership.



Don’t keep your cattle in a barn or stable to prevent injury from flying debris. If the barn collapses, cattle have no chance to save themselves. Relocate livestock to a predetermined safe area and ensure that they have access to hay, pasture, clean water, and a safe area or high ground above flood levels.



If you have chicken cages, these should be reinforced. Medical supplies and a first aid kit should be kept on hand.



Store drinking water for a number of days. Also have an adequate supply of feed.



# # #



Roddy Heyliger

Sint Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)


Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE

P.O.Box 945, Philipsburg, St. Maarten
Cell: 5204217-primary, 5816323-secondary

Public Relations & Communications
Secondary Email: roddyheyliger at yahoo.com

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE
This e-mail message is intended only for the individual(s) to whom it is
addressed. This e-mail may contain information that is privileged,
confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not
the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination,
distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you received this e-mail by accident, please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail and all copies of it.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
359 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WELL NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION...AND IN
TURN A LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER A RETURN OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS TROPICAL STORM EARL MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS WEAKLY INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS
THE MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS...SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM EARL NOW LOCATED SOME 1000
MILES OR SO EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH LOCAL TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE LEAD TO DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTH
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
BEFORE THE PREVAILING WINDS BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THIS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...AND THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
AND ENHANCEMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SOME
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SOME EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...FOLLOWED
BY SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM EARL IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HOWEVER LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT
TO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM AS THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES AFT 27/22Z
IN A LIGHT LLVL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF LESS THAN 10 KTS. FOR
SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPORARY MVFR...OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS...TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH 28/23Z...WITH A VCSH OR VCTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ. PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF
SITES. VA EMISSION FROM MONTSERRAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
TKPK...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD IN THE VCTY OF TKPK AFT 28/06Z.

[cycloneye]

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 72 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

[cycloneye]

Here is the 5 PM data of the miles it will pass from islands.

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm

[Macrocane]

Lots of rain yesterday in El Salvador, some places received between 80 and 100 mm, the maximum registered was 108.3 mm/4.26 inches, thankfully there are no reports of floods or mudslides.

[Gustywind]

000
FONT12 KNHC 272030
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 12 7 5 2 3 2 2
TROPICAL STORM 85 77 56 37 25 18 17
HURRICANE 2 15 39 60 72 80 81
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 13 32 39 37 33 31
HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 14 19 23 23
HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 5 12 18 20
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 3 5 6
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 90KT 100KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)

SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 1(22)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 8(38) X(38)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 5(28) X(28)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 4(44) X(44)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) 1(18)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)

ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 3(32) X(32)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 2(22) X(22)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)

DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11)

MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Hope that Msbee is monitoring carefully all the weather forecasts.
We should continue to monitor Earl all my friends from the Leewards but especially those who are in the Northern Leewards.
Gustywind

[chrisjslucia]

I keep hearing Earl is going to curve WNW. I keep seeing West.
Despite the general forecast for the past few days of Earl being further north than it currently is and for the current track to still change from due West to WNW and so avoid the Northern Leewards, it's current path is due west (270 and steady now) or possibly lower to come and that takes Earl into the middle of the Leewards and impacts, in terms of the "cone", on the Northern Windwards, maybe Barbados first. Do tell me that is not possible (because that's what I'm hoping) but my message to other members in the region is better be safe than sorry. I've left some of my planning too late - thinking Fiona or Gaston was the more likely threat. I hope we all miss Earl but we've have spent the two days before it reaches this far west preparing for it and at the least being ready for the one that doesn't recurve! Good luck Islanders and especially my friends in Antigua, and the French Islands. Anway, if it wasn't for Storm2k and StormCarib, I'd be sitting in some degree of blissful ignorance - until the storm wakes me up, but it's time to pull away from the computer and prepare!

[msbee]

Hope that Msbee is monitoring carefully all the weather forecasts.
We should continue to monitor Earl all my friends from the Leewards but especially those who are in the Northern Leewards.
Gustywind

I'm right here Gusty
watching VERY carefully

[Gustywind]

Hope that Msbee is monitoring carefully all the weather forecasts.
We should continue to monitor Earl all my friends from the Leewards but especially those who are in the Northern Leewards.
Gustywind

I'm right here Gusty
watching VERY carefully

Glad to see you. So continue to watch it carefully as the others from all the Leewards . Don't let our guard down.
Gustywind