2008 Severe Weather Thread

[JonathanBelles]

Lets keep this 'g' rated. lol

[RL3AO]

Lets keep this 'g' rated. lol

'G' for g-string.

[Bunkertor]

What ? The Tornado warning

What do you folks think ? Will that much warnings lead to a big event ?

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CRANE COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
CORDONA LAKE...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRANE...MOVING EAST AT 36
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
CORDONA LAKE...
CRANE...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Any Limey chasers near Childress probably need to head West, as I think the sun will be setting by the time these storms get there.


Panhandle Radar

[Ed Mahmoud]

West side of Lubbock not in a warning yet, but 70 dBz reflectivities suggest impressive hail is only minutes away.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Cell West of Plainview starting to show a bit of rotation, and is relatively isolated, as compared to the big cluster towards Lubbock. If I were out there, this is the cell I'd chase.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Near Great Bend, KS. I believe that is what they might call a book-end vortex.

[Ed Mahmoud]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
801 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL 6 SE GRANDFALLS 31.28N 102.78W
05/06/2008 E4.25 INCH PECOS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDOWS KNOCKED OUT BY HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZED.

[senorpepr]

All right, i´m back. Peter is married and goes for honeymoon and i´ll stay in germany.

What is wrong with Germany. All that unpleasant stuff 60 years ago is forgiven, and although my wife will probably never agree, I'd love to visit Munich in Autumn.

Mmmm... Germany. 4 1/2 more months until I'm living there again!

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z sounding shows cap of forged steel, yay, high pressure water molded titanium at Corpus Christi.




Lake Charles has a much weaker cap. The convective T listed is 100ºF, but I think that is a bug, as eyeballing that, upper 20sC should be sufficient.


In the last few events, when CRP showed a solid cap, and LCH showed a breakable cap, the cap generally held I-10 area and Southward around HOU, so, if I had to guess, the model forecasts of rain from Conroe area Northward with HOU high and dry are probably in the ballpark.


New 13Z SWODY1 just shifted risk area out of Houston area. The early morning risk area included much of the area.

New RUC sounding for 4 pm this afternoon at Conroe suggests it may be a bit too capped for any action, but if storms can fire on the dry line, there is adequate shear and instability for severe weather. The cap is a little weaker at UTS and CLL, so somewhere at the Northern edge of the Houston NWS forecast area will see some impressive storms, probably.

RUC CXO sounding:

[Bunkertor]

All right, i´m back. Peter is married and goes for honeymoon and i´ll stay in germany.

What is wrong with Germany. All that unpleasant stuff 60 years ago is forgiven, and although my wife will probably never agree, I'd love to visit Munich in Autumn.

Mmmm... Germany. 4 1/2 more months until I'm living there again!

Hm, could we switch personalities or could i rent your NE-appartment ? So i could escape .

Where will you move, if you don´t mind my question. I´m just interested.

[Ed Mahmoud]

All right, i´m back. Peter is married and goes for honeymoon and i´ll stay in germany.

What is wrong with Germany. All that unpleasant stuff 60 years ago is forgiven, and although my wife will probably never agree, I'd love to visit Munich in Autumn.



Mmmm... Germany. 4 1/2 more months until I'm living there again!

Hm, could we switch personalities or could i rent your NE-appartment ? So i could escape .

Where will you move, if you don´t mind my question. I´m just interested.

Doubt I could ever talk my wife into going, but Deutschland, especially Munchen, in Autumn, land of bier and groβe busen...

[Bunkertor]

But you could tell her, you´re on vacation for your company or fishing. So she will never find out, that you sat in a tent drinking beer the whole day.

[Ed Mahmoud]

20ºF drop in dewpoint (about 12ºC) in an hour as the famed West Texas dryline surged through Abilene


Abilene weather.


Not sure DFW clears out in time to destabilize before the dryline.

[Bunkertor]

*just in* They seemed to be pretty confident, SPC didn´t wait until 16:30


SPC AC 071605


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST
AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY...

COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO OK BY THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO MO BY 08/12Z. THE
ASSOCIATED 70-80 KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF EAST
TX AND INTO AR THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THIS REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WARM SECTOR OF NORTHEAST TX.
HOWEVER...RAPID HEATING IS EXPECTED WEST OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE AND
SOME THINNING OF WARM SECTOR CLOUDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A RISK OF
TORNADOES...HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR I-35 BY
18-21Z...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
SUPERCELLS WITH A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. AS THESE STORMS TRACK EASTWARD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES OVER NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST
OK...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR. EASTWARD EXTENT OF GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND LIKELY EVOLUTION INTO SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS STORMS TRAVERSE
AR/NORTHERN LA AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF TN/MS BY END OF PERIOD.

...MO/IL...
BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
SLOWLY DESTABILIZING WITH AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG
POSSIBLE. HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN THIS CORRIDOR.

...NV/UT...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS ORE/NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND AFFECT PARTS OF NV/UT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION...WITH STRONGEST
CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

[RL3AO]

Yikes. 15H tornado, 45 hail.

[KWT]

Yep i think this will be the most severe day of May so far generally, going to be very interesting to see how it pans out...

[Ed Mahmoud]

New MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL INTO PARTS OF NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071659Z - 071830Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING WEST OF LUBBOCK.
THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING NEAR A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY...WITHIN BROADER SCALE CIRCULATION SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLOWLY NOSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
NEGLIGIBLE CAP...AND IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK THROUGH 19-20Z. IF
THIS OCCURS...LAPSE RATES BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ARE BECOMING
VERY STEEP...CONTRIBUTING TO A RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

HOWEVER...MUCH OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE MAIN
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE TRIPLE POINT LOW BETWEEN ABILENE AND WICHITA FALLS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROBABLY WILL BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AND... THOUGH
THE MAIN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE EAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY
LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY.

..KERR.. 05/07/2008


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yikes. 15H tornado, 45 hail.

Is Mr. Bean, er, Mr. Fish still out on the prairies of America?



Actual severe weather will put all the bier and busen talk on hold for a while, I fear.