"MUCH NEEDED RAINS" were mentioned twice in the same discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MUCH NEEDED RAINS ARE TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS AND MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND NORTHWARD. CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE FOUR CORNER STATES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF TEXAS.
THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND
BRING THE MUCH NEEDED RAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND FUTURE TRACK FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTIES TO RESOLVE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT STAYS BEHIND OVER
NEW MEXICO SATURDAY. GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY/SHORT WAVE TROUGHING FROM THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
MORNING VS ECMWF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION PER
THIS PACKAGE ENDING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY
MORNING OUT WEST AND ALONG AND EAST OF I35 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A CONVERGENCE ZONE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY ESPECIALLY THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA. FEW HOURS LATER...
BETWEEN 7 TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE PLAINS/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...9 PM TO MIDNIGHT
ALONG I35 TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 WEST OF SAN ANTONIO TO
DEL RIO AND MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAINS/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE
FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS HAVING HIGHER
AMOUNTS DURING THE PERIOD
. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIDE-SPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. BY SUNDAY...UPPER
SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD AS MENTIONED ABOVE AND RAIN CHANCES END
FROM WEST TO EAST.
ESTIMATED STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER ISOLATED AREAS. SINCE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EXTEND FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS
EVENT WILL BE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS STREETS...UNDERPASSES...
LOW LEVEL CROSSING AND SMALL RIVER CREEKS.
HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND BELOW
NORMAL AVERAGES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN
COVERAGE AND MODIFYING AIR MASS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
. Don't be in a rush to give up! It's a stalled/slow moving upper low, rain chances remain until Sunday or Monday. The maps are 3-5 day totals not just one