February 5-6: Super Tuesday Outbreak... 57 dead

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 061241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST/CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DYNAMIC UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 110-120 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL
LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WITH
AN INTENSE HEIGHT FALL CENTER OF 150-200M/12 HR OVERSPREADING THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
PATTERN REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS BROKEN
LINE OF TSTMS PERSISTS FROM ERN KY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AT
12Z. IN ADDITION...DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE WAS EVIDENT THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW OVER NWRN PA AND ANOTHER OVER SRN IL. A LOW CENTER IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN/CONSOLIDATE TODAY WHILE DEVELOPING ENEWD ALONG
WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO S-CNTRL PA/NRN MD...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY MOVING EWD OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY SSWWD TO THE
CNTRL GULF COAST WILL SURGE EWD...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER
ONGOING...PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EWD
OR IF STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND ALLOW
COLD FRONT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

...UPPER OH VALLEY TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST/NC...
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED
100+ KT MID LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING. IN RESPONSE...50-60 KT SWLY LLJ CURRENTLY FROM THE CNTRL
GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY
SUPPORTING A CONTINUED INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F. STRONG CAPPING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
MAINTAIN THIS TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC
COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM /MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J PER
KG/.

EXPECT ONGOING STORMS TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS AIR
MASS SLOWLY DESTABILIZES AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG WITH 80-90 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 250-350 M2/S2 AND 50+ KT STORM
MOTIONS. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
TORNADOES...BOTH OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC WHERE
STRONGEST ASCENT/SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD NWRN EXTENT OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. UPGRADE TO MDT MIGHT BE NECESSARY IN LATER
OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS CAP WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR DISCRETE STORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN SOME BY LATE
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

...SRN APPALACHIANS/CNTRL GULF STATES EWD TO THE E-CNTRL AND SERN
ATLANTIC COAST...
WHILE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO PULL NEWD AWAY FROM THE
REGION...MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ AND
FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OR CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE DAY /REFERENCE SWOMCD 180/. THE
PRESENCE OF 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN LARGER
CONVECTIVE BAND. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS HIGHEST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
FORCING DEVELOP NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.

..EVANS.. 02/06/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1300Z (8:00AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Bunkertor]

753
WFUS54 KBMX 061305
TORBMX
ALC015-027-029-111-121-061345-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0035.080206T1305Z-080206T1345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
705 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HEFLIN...
NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL TALLADEGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 745 AM CST

* AT 703 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
CHANDLER SPRINGS...OR 11 MILES WEST OF ASHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SPRINGHILL AND CHANDLER SPRINGS BY 710 AM CST...
BARFIELD AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MT CHEAHA BY 725 AM CST...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HEFLIN BY 745 AM CST...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

[Weatherfreak14]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 48
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 805 AM UNTIL
200 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 46...WW 47...

DISCUSSION...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOREGOING AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL...AMIDST LARGE VALUES
OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

[CrazyC83]

It's still not over...destructive tornado just reported in NE Alabama...

[HarlequinBoy]

45? I don't even know what to say.

[RL3AO]

2007 had 80 deaths in the US. It was the most since 1999. 2008 is already over halfway to that number and it is only February 6.

[Bunkertor]

Coverage, anyone ?

[CrazyC83]

2007 had 80 deaths in the US. It was the most since 1999. 2008 is already over halfway to that number and it is only February 6.

One more bad outbreak and we could be well over that. This appears to be the deadliest outbreak since May 31, 1985 (76 US deaths that day plus 12 more in Canada).

[CrazyC83]

Coverage, anyone ?

Search around Chattanooga, TN and Huntsville, AL for coverage. Knoxville, TN and Atlanta, GA may have some as well.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN WV...ERN TN...EXTREME NWRN SC...FAR
SWRN VA...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN GA...EXTREME ERN KY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061349Z - 061545Z

ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY FOR DISCUSSION AREA DURING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY
ALONG AND E OF BLUE RIDGE.

BAND OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR EPISODIC
STG/SVR GUSTS AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS.
ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL STG-SVR ELEMENTS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY...OVERALL/GRADUAL DISORGANIZING TREND HAS BECOME APPARENT
BOTH IN REFLECTIVITY AND LIGHTNING PATTERNS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY LOW SFC
THETAE...WITH TEMPS COMMONLY MID/UPPER 50S F AND DEW POINTS RANGING
FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 50S F MOST AREAS. POCKETS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE EVIDENT MAINLY ACROSS FAR WRN SC AND NRN GA N
AND E OF EXISTING WWS. MODIFICATIONS TO RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD NOT
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH DIURNALLY TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...RESULTING IN LITTLE OR NO CAPE IN PROSPECTIVE PATH OF
EXISTING ACTIVITY.

..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008


ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...

34808505 36478350 38308159 37918042 37108080 36128175
34718294 34518388

[RL3AO]

Look at the start we are off to. This doesn't include tornadoes from this outbreak.

[CrazyC83]

SPC now hinting at a MDT for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast...could the outbreak be continuing?

[Brent]

Sheesh, one of the worst outbreaks with a high death toll in years.

Here, just a weakening squall line. Not much left other than heavy rain and a little lightning. South of that tornado warning.

[CrazyC83]

Death toll now appears to be 47 after compiling all sources.

[Ed Mahmoud]

News report.

[RL3AO]

47 deaths passes the OKC Outbreak in May 1999.

[CrazyC83]

Where the deaths were from what I can see (indicates tornado deaths):

Alabama - 1 (1)

Arkansas - 16 (16)

Kentucky - 7 (7)

Tennessee - 24 (23)

TOTAL 46 tornado deaths, 1 wind death (one that I thought was tornadic does not match up to tornado reports, although it might be changed to a tornado death later if one was found)

[simplykristi]

CNN: 45 deaths

Memphis' Commercial Appeal reports 45 dead... 24 of those deaths in TN.

Kristi

[CrazyC83]

CNN: 45 deaths

Memphis' Commercial Appeal reports 45 dead... 24 of those deaths in TN.

Kristi

Yep I've managed to spot 23 of those deaths with tornado reports plus one that does not match any tornado report (so I am thinking straight-line winds at least for now). Arkansas appears to have had 16 deaths, Kentucky 7 and Alabama 1.

This has turned Super Tuesday into Terrible Tuesday...

[Dionne]

Daughter (grad student) in Jackson, TN. is okay. EMT's got her while storms were still present. She is a bit shaken up, but physically no probs. She saw it all happen. She has only one comment....she wonders why the bad weather keeps following her? She went through Katrina and now this. They are still searching for the missing.