Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Long-range models for south florida show low to near zero rain chances through at least early next week where there might be a 20% chance of rain. We are in the wettest month of the year...this dry pattern is abnormal, something is up with the weather pattern out there. Very weird.

[psyclone]

gatorcane, i'm afraid you jinxed us with your "early start to the rainy season" chatter earlier in the spring! on a serious note, i'm sure things will bust loose soon enough. i got about an inch of rain from 93L with heavier rain just to my north. it looks like the rain did hit some of the fire areas so that's good. outside the rain, it is hot...103 in TLH today?? gonna be a long summer with dry, hot weather returning statewide tomorrow.

[thetruesms]

gatorcane, i'm afraid you jinxed us with your "early start to the rainy season" chatter earlier in the spring! on a serious note, i'm sure things will bust loose soon enough. i got about an inch of rain from 93L with heavier rain just to my north. it looks like the rain did hit some of the fire areas so that's good. outside the rain, it is hot...103 in TLH today?? gonna be a long summer with dry, hot weather returning statewide tomorrow.

not enough rain, and the lightning only started new fires

[Scorpion]

When is the latest start to the rainy season on record? I feel this year will surpass it.

[Patrick99]

NWS Miami said that the rainy season started May 26th......but no great chances for rain for probably over a week, maybe more.

All of SE FL under severe drought on the drought monitor map....parts of Broward and Palm Beach now in the dark red.....

[psyclone]

in central fl the rainy season doesn't typically get going until late may/early june over the interior and even later on the coast. it's about june 10th here in pinellas county. it is common for it to be dry at this time of year. a number of years ago i remember some municipalities scrapping fireworks for the 4th because it was still dry then. that would be a late start but this doesn't seem unusual yet. i know the drought areas in the panhandle and the southeast are itching for things to get going but it doesn't look good in the immediate future.

[Patrick99]

I actually kinda disagree with them that the rainy season has started. The dewpoint has been under 70 degrees for the most part for several weeks.

[JonathanBelles]

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... r-florida/

A wet week is in store for Florida, especially for those on the West Coast.

[Rgv20]

Some good rain for south florida as per the NAM.

[psyclone]

it looks like "ok" convective potential on the seabreeze boundary near the coast from tampa bay south on Wednesday. relative to what we've had recently...i'll take it.

[Scorpion]

Why does it seem that the west coast always gets the rain? Been dry as a bone on the central east coast and eastern Orange County.

[psyclone]

we're not getting anything now either. we hit a couple of mid latitude jackpots back in late March but have had little since then. in a normal summer pattern the west coast does do well in the thunderstorm category as the dominant east coast seabreeze collides with the gulf breeze on our side of the state and the resultant convection pushes westward. that pattern was in short supply last year...hopefully this year is better.

[gsytch]

No rain. No clouds. Here on the west coast, New Port Richey, nada. Just hot, sunny, breezy, clear skies and unusually low humidity. My yard thanked the rains last Wed., but that is all dried up now. It better move in soon or we will be dust! My water bill is hurting.

[gsytch]

btw Last year, we were swamped with rain in summer. August produced 22". No, I am not kidding. I measured it in my rain gauge that was dumped daily because it was so heavy. Keeping track of it was amazing. Then Sept it shut right off! The only thing you can rely on for summer rains is.........they are completely unreliable.

[psyclone]

today was a flop. no seabreeze here, no convergence and therefore no rain. at some point we'll be swamped. that's the way it usually works in the summer.

[gatorcane]

Funny snippet from NWS Miami tonight...all kidding aside, I have never seen it this dry in South Florida this late into the rainy season. It's crispy out there.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 090212
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1012 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

.UPDATE...WE FINALLY HAVE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING!
OKAY...WON`T GET TOO EXCITED AS ACTIVITY IS ONLY ISOLATED
BUT...HEY...AT LEAST IT`S A START. FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH
DRY CONDITIONS INTERIOR/GULF COAST. THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING
SHOWED PW AT 1.49 INCHES (FOR THE 3RD SOUNDING IN A ROW!) AND THIS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT UP-TICK IN ACTIVITY. WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
AROUND. BUT GIVEN THE DROUGHT...CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
IGNITING NEW FIRES IS HIGH.
E "PRARIE".....

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[NDG]

I sure hope last night's ECMWF run comes true, it brings in some of that Caribbean moisture over the FL Peninsula and leaves a weakness in atmosphere in its entire run. Hopefully that would be more than enough to get our afternoon & evening storms going. I am tired of waking up to the smokie smell in the air during the past few days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The funny part is that the same office called 26 May the "official start" to the rainy season, despite sub 70's DP and no sign of rain. We still don't have enough moisture to support t-storms nearly 2 weeks later. That high over the SE needs to MOVE!

[NDG]

11z RUC shows a nice surge of moisture to head over S FL today, showing scattered to widespread showers.

[thetruesms]

11z RUC shows a nice surge of moisture to head over S FL today, showing scattered to widespread showers.

[img]http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t6/2011060911/cref_t6sfc_f08.png[img]

That's actually the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, which is different from the RUC (though they fill the same niche).

Also, while moisture does look to be increasing, the composite reflectivity isn't necessarily the best product to be looking for rainfall, particularly if it'll be light. For example, take a look at the corresponding accumulated rainfall graphic for the same time:


What I think is happening, is that what's showing up in the composite reflectivity graphic is fairly high up, and evaporating in the relative dry low-mid levels, which you can see in the wide spread between the temperature and dewpoint profiles here:


Even when you look at the max 1km reflectivity, you can see that what's closer to the ground is relatively limited


But, like the Miami AFD from last night said, "Hey . . . at least it's a start"