Texas Summer - 2014

[weatherdude1108]

Unfortunately the complex of showers and thunderstorms stalled just west of San Antonio last night, but at least a large area of the Hill Country, Medina Lake, and the Edwards Aquifer Recharge Zone received heavy rain from this system. Some places received over 3 inches of rain last night.

If it has to fall somewhere, this is the best place for it to fall. Most of our watersheds are to the west and northwest of the SAT and AUS metroplexes.

Good "silver lining" takeaway from this event.

[South Texas Storms]

I agree. If it doesn't rain on my lawn, that is where I want it to. I'm not complaining!

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: I don't really buy that. Too much shear and EPAC development will probably hinder anything that is in the Carib/Gulf within this month. I think it's likely a phantom storm by the GFS. What do I buy is perhaps a surge of moisture brought by shear axis.

From what I read in the tropical thread it seams that a recurving EPAC storm could help a Gulf storm by spreading moisture into the gulf. Also there have been quite a few models showing a storm in the Gulf somewhere, so The GFS may have the wrong location, but it may not be a phantom storm.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I don't really buy that. Too much shear and EPAC development will probably hinder anything that is in the Carib/Gulf within this month. I think it's likely a phantom storm by the GFS. What do I buy is perhaps a surge of moisture brought by shear axis.

From what I read in the tropical thread it seams that a recurving EPAC storm could help a Gulf storm by spreading moisture into the gulf. Also there have been quite a few models showing a storm in the Gulf somewhere, so The GFS may have the wrong location, but it may not be a phantom storm.

Large EPAC systems can also induce shear at the same time they spill moisture hence my wording of shear axis surge of moisture. The system we are talking about the models is not yet one that has formed it is always subject to high error rates until something has definitively formed.

As our buddy dhweather likes to say cat 5s in the gulf!

[dhweather]

:uarrow: I don't really buy that. Too much shear and EPAC development will probably hinder anything that is in the Carib/Gulf within this month. I think it's likely a phantom storm by the GFS. What do I buy is perhaps a surge of moisture brought by shear axis.

From what I read in the tropical thread it seams that a recurving EPAC storm could help a Gulf storm by spreading moisture into the gulf. Also there have been quite a few models showing a storm in the Gulf somewhere, so The GFS may have the wrong location, but it may not be a phantom storm.

Large EPAC systems can also induce shear at the same time they spill moisture hence my wording of shear axis surge of moisture. The system we are talking about the models is not yet one that has formed it is always subject to high error rates until something has definitively formed.

As our buddy dhweather likes to say cat 5s in the gulf!

or 5 cats in the gulf.

[Ptarmigan]

Unfortunately the complex of showers and thunderstorms stalled just west of San Antonio last night, but at least a large area of the Hill Country, Medina Lake, and the Edwards Aquifer Recharge Zone received heavy rain from this system. Some places received over 3 inches of rain last night.

Areas west of San Antonio needed the rain more.

[weatherdude1108]

It's always interesting to see the "tone" of the EWX discussion change in less than 24 hours (i.e., "IT DOES BEAR WATCHING.")
In this case, I like the "tone" change.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

[Portastorm]

Yes, Forecaster Hampshire is one of the newer folks at EWX. Based on the good quality forecast discussions he offers, it should surprise no one that he came to EWX from FWD. No doubt working with Dennis Cavanaugh makes everyone better.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah he came from the NWS in DFW and guess what? He is an Aggie!


Good news! Wetter than normal weather conditions are forecasted for this fall and winter helping to improve drought conditions across Texas. The wet weather pattern will likely develop due to an El Niño event, which is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

[somethingfunny]

I'm not greedy, this map doesn't need to be perfect... it looks better than it could look, anyway.

[Ntxw]

Many of us would be more than happy to accept that from May. It's not perfect but it certainly didn't get worse for a summer season.

[TheProfessor]

From NWS Fort Worth



I hope that pans out.

[Ntxw]

Watch the gulf this week. Whether or not we see development with HP to our east flow is coming into Texas. At the very least a surge of tropical moisture.

[Tireman4]

Boy California's 2014 looks our (Texas) 2011. They are just boiling over there. Goodness. Yeah, the Gulf could be interesting......

[Rgv20]

Watch the gulf this week. Whether or not we see development with HP to our east flow is coming into Texas. At the very least a surge of tropical moisture.

Looks like beyond that the 12zGFS and 12zECMWF want to keep unsettled weather in the Western Gulf...Looks like an interesting start to September!

[somethingfunny]

Hey atmosphere, what gives???

Usually Garland is in the upper 90s while DFW or Love Field hit triple digits.



At least there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

[Ntxw]

Hey atmosphere, what gives???

Usually Garland is in the upper 90s while DFW or Love Field hit triple digits.

There was heavy rain last weekend in western Dallas county (DFW recorded the 2+ inches on Sunday) probably has something to do with it. Only minuscule but there you have it! Vegetation and soil lingering effects.

[somethingfunny]

Hey atmosphere, what gives???

Usually Garland is in the upper 90s while DFW or Love Field hit triple digits.

There was heavy rain last weekend in western Dallas county (DFW recorded the 2+ inches on Sunday) probably has something to do with it. Only minuscule but there you have it! Vegetation and soil lingering effects.

Aye that makes sense since I only received a half inch during that rain event. It didn't affect the humidity though - 104 degrees with a dewpoint of 70 for me today!

[weatherdude1108]

Got a 1/2 inch of rain here at the Weatherdude Center about an hour or so ago! Here's hoping to a multi-day/inch event.

[South Texas Storms]

Got a 1/2 inch of rain here at the Weatherdude Center about an hour or so ago! Here's hoping to a multi-day/inch event.

Yeah I got a nice shower at my place this afternoon too! Also, lightning hit the gas pumps at the HEB near my place!