Florida Weather

[NDG]

And this is what it looks like in radar this morning, S FL is going to be wet today, central FL's turn tomorrow and Friday.

[AdamFirst]

Melbourne AFD from this morning

THU-FRI...
ELEMENTS ARE IN PLAY THAT WILL SHIFT E CENTRAL FL BACK TO A WET WX
PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT IS ERODED BY A SERIES
OF WEAK TROFS. THE FIRST ASSAULT WILL COME FROM AN EASTERLY WAVE
OVER THE BAHAMAS THAT WILL PUSH ACRS S FL AND INTO THE ERN GOMEX BY
DAYBREAK THU. AT THE SAME TIME...AN H85-H50 TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
LWR MS VALLEY TO THE UPR OH VALLEY WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SMALL MID
LVL SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPR MIDWEST.
THE RESULTING TROF THAT WILL FORM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE DEEP
AND WELL FORMED.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO TROFS WILL PINCH OFF THE WRN EXTENSION
OF THE ATLC RIDGE...FORCING ITS PRIMARY AXIS BACK INTO THE WRN ATLC
ON THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SRLY FLOW ACRS THE FL PENINSULA...
WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE NW CARIB
BY THU AFTN. WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI AS A SECOND MID LVL
SHORT WAVE WORKS IT WAY DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW AND REINFORCES THE TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SRLY
STEERING FLOW ON THU WILL BCM SW BY DAYBREAK FRI...A PATTERN WHICH
FAVORS THE E CENT PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.

AS THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL NEED TIME TO ADVECT ACRS THE CWA...WILL
KEEP POPS ARND 50PCT FOR THE NRN HALF AND 60-70PCT FOR THE SRN HALF
ON THU...DECREASING TO 30-40PCT AREAWIDE BY THU NIGHT. BY FRI THE
SRLY FLOW WILL HAVE PUSHED VERY HIGH MOISTURE WELL INTO THE
CWA...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SATURATED AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
BTWN 2.1"-2.4". LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE. HIGH CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
RAIN COVERAGE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG
(L90S)...BUT HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U70S...
ARND 5-8F ABV AVG.

Wet Thursday and Friday featuring our friend the Tropical Downpour. I believe Miami is getting reacquainted with it as I type this. Rain should continue through the weekend.

[gsytch]

It is about time! My area did get hit Tues eve. I received 3/4 inch, most in one storm since early May. Now, on to the tropical downpours and a thirsty landscape quenched.

[AdamFirst]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
848 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...INVERTED TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC SIGNATURE NORTH OF THE CAPE
MOVING UP EAST COAST THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWER/ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST GIVEN MORNING KXMR SOUNDING COMING IN
WITH A PWAT OF 2.47 INCHES. THE WIND PROFILE REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK SO
WE MAY HAVE TO MONITOR WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST. ONGOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THOUGH
BELIEVE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS/ZONES GIVEN HIGH PWATS.

Plenty of rain incoming

[JonathanBelles]

2nd tropical influence in as many weeks. I'm assuming most of the rain this summer will come from the tropics rather than the 'normal' summertime sea breeze.

[JonathanBelles]

Invest 96L forms in the Gulf: Will it break Florida's drought or will Atlantis launch?

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... 96l-forms/

[Hurricaneman]

Invest 96L forms in the Gulf: Will it break Florida's drought or will Atlantis launch?

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... 96l-forms/

Looks like both

[psdstu]

Invest 96L forms in the Gulf: Will it break Florida's drought or will Atlantis launch?

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... 96l-forms/

Looks like both

It sure hasn't done anything for the drought in the Panhandle........ sigh.........

[NDG]

GFS wants to keep at least the FL Peninsula in a troughiness pattern with mid level ridging centered across the MS River valley, so I would expect for at least the normal afternoon showers & storms to be present through at least the next 7 days.
Usual summertime afternoon rainy pattern as tropics remain quite.

[AdamFirst]

96L was a forecast bust for the treasure coast. A lot like other predicted heavy rain events.

[gsytch]

It just poured all day on Friday! Over 4" of much needed rainfall in new Port Richey, just N of Clearwater. Some bay area reports of 6" or more. Thankfully, it dried out today. Too much at once, but better than none.

[psdstu]

It just poured all day on Friday! Over 4" of much needed rainfall in new Port Richey, just N of Clearwater. Some bay area reports of 6" or more. Thankfully, it dried out today. Too much at once, but better than none.

Sure wish we had that problem up here in the Panhandle..........sigh......

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Seems the heavens have dried up! This week is much less bountiful for the SE coast as far as rain goes. We have mid-level drying, and the trough that has been so great at allowing convection is all but gone. Add in easterlies, and we only have some popcorn tropical stuff possible in the morning and evening down here. Today's AFD seems to suggest that it'll stay this way most or all of the week. Enjoy the rain interior and west coast!

[gsytch]

No rainfall since Friday's downpours. All is drying out now but the weeds are going nuts. It would be nice to just get occasional storms here and there rather than 4+ inches at once, but so be it. An odd summer for sure!

[JonathanBelles]

Interesting little spin on visible satellite over southern Polk Co. earlier before the sea breeze storms popped up

[jdray]

Looks like all that rain from the wave and trough helped most of the state with drought issues. Still a minor issue in NE & North Central Florida and major in the panhandle.

[Hurricaneman]

they really need rain in the panhandle

[northjaxpro]

they really need rain in the panhandle

I was just out there in Destin last week and believe me, they are in urgent need of rain out there. It is a severe drought occuring over there for sure.

[gsytch]

Well, it was nice to have 4 1/2" of rain in less tha 24hrs last Thur/Fri but not a drop since. While that is great for the drought and aquifer, my yard now needs water. Out with the hose. This westerly pattern, which usually dominates in my 24 years here (despite what our weathermen say) can be so dry. The storms die as they come ashore and reform inland leaving me out of the loop being 1 mile from the coast. The seabreeze only dries things out more! A little sharing of the rain would be nice...

[psdstu]

they really need rain in the panhandle

You got that right!!

Another week of very little rain here in Jackson County..... sitting in the 650-699 range......sigh...