Texas Summer 2012

[Ptarmigan]

NWS in Brownsville is remembering 1967 Hurricane Beulah...Link below is the 9/18 11am Advisory...This is awesome of have never seen the forecast track for Beulah! For those of you that don't know Beulah was the worst hurricane to hit the Rio Grande Valley as it cause extensive flooding. Later this evening when I get home I will post a Total Rainfall Map for Southern Texas (If I'm not mistaken my small town of RGC received 20+ inches of rain from Beulah)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/bro/trop ... 1AMCDT.pdf

Here is a preliminary report and advisory archive for Hurricane Beulah.

[weatherdude1108]

So, I guess we are done with the rain until October.

Going two weeks to a month or so between rain systems seems to be a recurrent theme this year for those of us in South Central Texas.

I cherish the day we can go less than two weeks between rain events. Back to the grind.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 182033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET AND WILL BE THE LAST OF THE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. LARGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED IN A DRY AIRMASS. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING MORE DISAGREEMENT THAN RECENT RUNS FOR THIS WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO TEXAS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN STILL SHOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE LATEST GFS NOW
SHOWS NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL GO WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GROUP.
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES SERVE TO CAP THE AIRMASS. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP
AT NIGHT NEGATING ANY COLD ADVECTION. THE MODELS ARE BACK IN
AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER ACROSS
TEXAS.

[somethingfunny]

Heads up on 93E possibly bringing something our way?

[weatherdude1108]

The central Texas discussion picked up on something.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
328 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER TEXAS. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
ALLOWING FOR WEAK MOISTURE RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE
NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE AT NIGHT WARMING TO NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS
WHILE A STRONG SHORT-WAVE ROTATES SOUTHEAST IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON BAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COLD ADVECTION LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CANADIAN AND EARLIER
RUNS OF ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHOWN A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH AT LEAST
SOME COLD ADVECTION...HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
GFS AND NOGAPS SHOWING ONLY A BRIEF WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE OR NO
COLD ADVECTION. ALL SOLUTIONS RESULT IN NO CHANCES OF RAIN DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT AND
VERY WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS TO
ALLOW A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION FOR AS MOISTURE MAY STILL
BE LIMITED. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES STAY AROUND AVERAGE.

LATE NEXT WEEK...12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SHOW AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM SENDING SOME MOISTURE INTO TEXAS WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME RAIN.

[Ntxw]

It looks like what I thought for the second half of Sept is only going to be partially correct. Started cool and wet but likely ends high and dry (barring any epac development). I'll look back at the end of the month and see which signal was the cause.

[weatherdude1108]

We're still counting on the tropics to send us some moisture. Maybe the prevailing westerlies will regularly start tapping into the Pacific plume and dump their contents over us (typical Nino variety stuff). Todays CPC long range forecast mentions normal to above normal rain and normal to cooler than normal temps over the next 10 days to 2 weeks.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 202030
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOWN ON SOME PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS FOR SUNDAY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH NO IMPACT
TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE AT NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND THEN WARM TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST AND SOUTH AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHERLY LOWER
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN A MORE HUMID AIRMASS WITH A
PATTERN OF NIGHT INTO MORNING LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL RUNS
HAVE THE SECOND OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PICKING
IT UP AND TAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND THEN
SENDING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

[Ntxw]

^ I do agree with CPC's cooler/wetter forecast to start October. Polar jet is getting active and jet stream doing it's usual shift southward this time of year. Just the cold fronts the next week are not as strong as once advertised.

[jasons2k]

I could use some rain. The storms last weekend/Monday were generous for most of Houston but I only got about .40" here. The cooler mornings have been nice though.

[vbhoutex]

Ok, today was the first day of Fall. So why was our high today 95f? That is ridiculous!!! If it says Fall then it needs to act like it!!!

[Ntxw]

We should keep an eye on Miriam and the other one on the Aleutians. One sending a cold front and the other feeding it come start of October.

[Portastorm]

We should keep an eye on Miriam and the other one on the Aleutians. One sending a cold front and the other feeding it come start of October.

Yep ... the 0z Euro painted a very wet picture for west and north Texas for late this week as a result of these two features. GFS less so. Will be interesting to see how it develops.

[Ntxw]

To add latest data from Jelawat (Super Typhoon to be) will give us clues how deep a trough and it's location down the road in tandem with perhaps Miriam and the Aleutian low.

If the typhoon (as JB likes to say) recurves east of Japan the trough will be near the east coast, if it heads due north after Taiwan in between Japan and Korea we'll likely see a deep central conus dive much like with Sanba. Interesting days ahead as we head into October and look for signs of storm tracks and troughs.

[Rgv20]

Looks like some Rain coming up for next weekend for parts of Texas. Still plenty of time to see how this develops..

NWS in Brownsville afternoon long term discussion.

"UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE /PWATS OVER 2.25
INCHES BY SATURDAY/ TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE 00Z/23 ECMWF
BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY. WHILE
THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEN SUGGEST MOVING A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST."

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like the Austin/San Antonio office and a couple of adjacent offices (San Angelo and Dallas) are hinting at a potential big rain maker this coming weekend. It was too much info. to put all of the discussions on one post. System started slowing down and almost crashed.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND
THIS WILL FAVOR PATCHY MORNING FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE
EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE/LIFT AFTER 10 AM
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
HURRICANE MIRIAM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTHWEST... THEN NORTH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MIRIAM
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WHILE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS INTACT. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MIRIAM WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES... BUT BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN... ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
STARTED THE TREND OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH
WILL WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
APPROACH... RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR 2" ACROSS
THE REGION. WE HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO BE INCREASED.DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK... WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

[Ntxw]

GFS finally is fully on-board with Euro in sending Miriam our way (Now a major hurricane in the Epac). Lots of moisture will stream ahead of her with boundaries extending from the coast of MX even before she is close by. Whoever gets under her remnants will receive a lot of front enhanced rain maybe in excess of 4-5+ inches.

[Portastorm]

Alright folks ... we are now into the autumn time frame per the calendar. I'm going to lock this thread and start a Texas Fall 2012 thread for further discussion.