Texas Spring 2018
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 595
- Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:14 pm
- Location: NOT Waco, TX ----> Dallas, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2018
What sort of timing are we looking at in Dallas for this to start popping? Any balloons going up locally?
0 likes
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5609
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Numerous fires are already burning out in West Texas, this looks ugly.
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 652
- Age: 44
- Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:14 pm
- Location: Manor, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2018
bubba hotep wrote:We've had several booms of thunder this morning here in downtown. That could be a sign that moisture return was deeper than anticipated allowing these elevated cells to tap into some of the deeper instability. That deep moisture could make it easier for dryline storms to get going later.
Thunder has been prevalent this morning here as well.
0 likes
Not a professional MET! My posts are merely speculation.
- Haris
- Category 5
- Posts: 1808
- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2018
bubba hotep wrote:Numerous fires are already burning out in West Texas, this looks ugly.
HRRR suggests supercells over Austin later today. One of the CBS Austin mets is on board with that solution . Hmm. Let’s see
0 likes
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 595
- Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:14 pm
- Location: NOT Waco, TX ----> Dallas, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2018
1 likes
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5609
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Per SPC meso, pretty impressive parameter space developing between the departing elevated activity and incoming dryline. Also, noticed the tone of the local mets has changed over the last hour or so as the dryline has not been mixing east as fast as expected.
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
bubba hotep wrote:Per SPC meso, pretty impressive parameter space developing between the departing elevated activity and incoming dryline. Also, noticed the tone of the local mets has changed over the last hour or so as the dryline has not been mixing east as fast as expected.
In addition to the impressive parameters (Supercell composite >12 and STP >2), it looks like the LFC height has lowered significantly just to the west of the Metroplex and is nearing the LCL height. The LCL-LFC mean RH% is also quite high which usually is an indicator that convection is about to develop.
1 likes
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5609
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2018
TarrantWx wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Per SPC meso, pretty impressive parameter space developing between the departing elevated activity and incoming dryline. Also, noticed the tone of the local mets has changed over the last hour or so as the dryline has not been mixing east as fast as expected.
In addition to the impressive parameters (Supercell composite >12 and STP >2), it looks like the LFC height has lowered significantly just to the west of the Metroplex and is nearing the LCL height. The LCL-LFC mean RH% is also quite high which usually is an indicator that convection is about to develop.
Moisture depth and quality appears to be better than what the models were showing earlier in the week. Modeled soundings were showing a very dry layer around H7 earlier in the week when they weren't firing the dryline in DFW. So the combo of better moisture and slower dryline has storms potentially firing just west of DFW vs east.
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5609
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Watch coming for N. Texas
Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018
Areas affected...north central Texas through eastern
Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 131739Z - 131945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop early to mid
afternoon from north central Texas through east Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas posing a risk for very large hail, damaging wind
and a few tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows boundary-layer cumulus
increasing along sharpening dryline and dryline/cold front merger
from southeast KS through central OK and north central TX. Cloud
breaks and low-level theta-e advection is promoting destabilization,
and objective analysis shows a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in
warm sector. The atmosphere still appears capped by an inversion
located around 800 mb associated with warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer. However deep ascent with a lead shortwave
trough continues to act on this layer, and should eventually erode
the inversion such that surface-based storms will initiate along the
dryline during the next couple hours. The 18Z Fort Worth RAOB showed
substantial cooling in the capping layer compared to the 12Z. While
deep-layer shear is very strong (50-55 kt), VWP data continues to
indicate veer-back-veer characteristics, possibly due to the effects
of the lead shortwave trough. Low-level hodographs are initially
large with current 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 250+ m2/s2.
However, some decrease in 0-1 km hodograph size should occur as the
low-level jet shifts east. Nevertheless, the overall environment is
supportive of supercells and bowing segments capable of very large
hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes this afternoon.
..Dial/Hart.. 04/13/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN..
Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018
Areas affected...north central Texas through eastern
Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 131739Z - 131945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop early to mid
afternoon from north central Texas through east Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas posing a risk for very large hail, damaging wind
and a few tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows boundary-layer cumulus
increasing along sharpening dryline and dryline/cold front merger
from southeast KS through central OK and north central TX. Cloud
breaks and low-level theta-e advection is promoting destabilization,
and objective analysis shows a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in
warm sector. The atmosphere still appears capped by an inversion
located around 800 mb associated with warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer. However deep ascent with a lead shortwave
trough continues to act on this layer, and should eventually erode
the inversion such that surface-based storms will initiate along the
dryline during the next couple hours. The 18Z Fort Worth RAOB showed
substantial cooling in the capping layer compared to the 12Z. While
deep-layer shear is very strong (50-55 kt), VWP data continues to
indicate veer-back-veer characteristics, possibly due to the effects
of the lead shortwave trough. Low-level hodographs are initially
large with current 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 250+ m2/s2.
However, some decrease in 0-1 km hodograph size should occur as the
low-level jet shifts east. Nevertheless, the overall environment is
supportive of supercells and bowing segments capable of very large
hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes this afternoon.
..Dial/Hart.. 04/13/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN..
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5609
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Lots of sun out now in downtown Dallas...
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37143
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Spring 2018
I'm in Waco headng to Round Rock for the weekend so cue the outbreak in the metro
1 likes
#neversummer
- AubreyStorm
- Category 1
- Posts: 322
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:21 pm
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Texas Spring 2018
TORNADO WATCH
ISSUED: 1:24 PM APR. 13, 2018 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 39 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 30 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL TEXAS
ANDERSON BOSQUE FREESTONE
HENDERSON HILL LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN
IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN GRAYSON HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR MONTAGUE
NAVARRO PARKER RAINS
ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT
VAN ZANDT WISE
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALLEN, ARLINGTON, ATHENS, BONHAM,
BOWIE, BRIAR, BRIDGEPORT, BURLESON, CANTON, CARROLLTON, CLEBURNE,
CLIFTON, COMMERCE, COOPER, CORSICANA, DALLAS, DECATUR, DENISON,
DENTON, EAST TAWAKONI, EDGEWOOD, EMORY, ENNIS, FAIRFIELD,
FLOWER MOUND, FORNEY, FORT WORTH, FRISCO, GAINESVILLE, GLEN ROSE,
GRANBURY, GRAND SALINE, GREENVILLE, GROESBECK, GUN BARREL CITY,
HEATH, HILLSBORO, KAUFMAN, LEWISVILLE, MCKINNEY, MERIDIAN, MEXIA,
MIDLOTHIAN, NOCONA, OAK TRAIL SHORES, PALESTINE, PARIS, PLANO,
POINT, ROCKWALL, SHERMAN, SULPHUR SPRINGS, TEAGUE, TERRELL,
VALLEY MILLS, VAN, WACO, WAXAHACHIE, WEATHERFORD, WILLS POINT,
AND WORTHAM.
ISSUED: 1:24 PM APR. 13, 2018 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 39 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 30 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL TEXAS
ANDERSON BOSQUE FREESTONE
HENDERSON HILL LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN
IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN GRAYSON HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR MONTAGUE
NAVARRO PARKER RAINS
ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT
VAN ZANDT WISE
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALLEN, ARLINGTON, ATHENS, BONHAM,
BOWIE, BRIAR, BRIDGEPORT, BURLESON, CANTON, CARROLLTON, CLEBURNE,
CLIFTON, COMMERCE, COOPER, CORSICANA, DALLAS, DECATUR, DENISON,
DENTON, EAST TAWAKONI, EDGEWOOD, EMORY, ENNIS, FAIRFIELD,
FLOWER MOUND, FORNEY, FORT WORTH, FRISCO, GAINESVILLE, GLEN ROSE,
GRANBURY, GRAND SALINE, GREENVILLE, GROESBECK, GUN BARREL CITY,
HEATH, HILLSBORO, KAUFMAN, LEWISVILLE, MCKINNEY, MERIDIAN, MEXIA,
MIDLOTHIAN, NOCONA, OAK TRAIL SHORES, PALESTINE, PARIS, PLANO,
POINT, ROCKWALL, SHERMAN, SULPHUR SPRINGS, TEAGUE, TERRELL,
VALLEY MILLS, VAN, WACO, WAXAHACHIE, WEATHERFORD, WILLS POINT,
AND WORTHAM.
0 likes
The posts are NOT an official forecast. Please REFER to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1743
- Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
- Location: Texarkana
Re: Texas Spring 2018
0 likes
Re: Texas Spring 2018
All eyes on the dry line
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
In line at school waiting for my daughter looking northwest and can see some very tall cloud formations in the distance. The cap is weakening it seems with the dryline farther west than first thought.
0 likes
Re: Texas Spring 2018
It's a very fine line between sharp dewpoint cutoffs though. Weatherford is falling into the 50s DP while near 70 for eastplexers. They will need to fire fast. Greatest supercell composite is I-35E and eastward. Storms will have a better chance at going off once the line hits Collin/Dallas counties if they do
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5609
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2018
WacoWx wrote:Storm starting to fire sw of Ft Worth.
Was coming to post about that one, if it can maintain, it has plenty of time to mature before moving into DFW.
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5609
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 476
- Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
- Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Looks like like Dallas and FTW proper may be spared. Seems to be going to Denton/Collin and south around Johnson/Ellis
0 likes
I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Stratton23 and 40 guests