Texas Summer 2022

[Kludge]

[quote="Yukon Cornelius"]We made it! 115!

Just thinking... with some of your temperatures commonly hitting the single digits in the winter... you've got to have some of the most incredible temperature swings to be found in this hemisphere.

[Brent]

We made it! 115!

Just thinking... with some of your temperatures commonly hitting the single digits in the winter... you've got to have some of the most incredible temperature swings to be found in this hemisphere.

I was thinking about that yesterday here too when every mesonet in the state was over 100

On the other side it was below zero everywhere in February 2021...

[jasons2k]

Thunderstorms popping-up NW of Denton.

[Ntxw]

Haven't seen this all summer, please!

[bubba hotep]

Thunderstorms popping-up NW of Denton.

[rwfromkansas]

Fingers crossed, but moving slow, so likely will be killed before getting here. Already dying with outflow kicked off.

[Brent]

Haven't seen this all summer, please!

https://i.imgur.com/SPV5gjo.gif

Highs in the 90s with rain chances end of next week here. A lot better than this... It was still 94 at the airport at 1am last night just ridiculous

[Ntxw]

Large amount of convection expected in the Indian Ocean soon (MJO), will this have a positive effect moving forward? I'm starting to look at the winter forecast already.

Terrible to see the crazy heat you guys are going through down there. Cant imagine. Was in Houston for the June part of the summer and it was horrible.

It appears next week the high will slide off the both coasts. Lets hope Texas can have multiple widespread rain events. Maybe can get some green grass to grow, to help pump humidity in the atmosphere and lesson the likelihood of these highs getting comfortable over TX.

Probably too early but if you want to start somewhere with analogs 2000 and 2011 work best right now in terms of global SSTa, ENSO year similarities, 500mb matches and adjusting for a more modern climate. I posted maps in the EPAC thread on this. Of course no two years are exactly alike so one would consider different timings of varying oscillations. Cold mongers definitely rooting for 2000 route.

[captainbarbossa19]

Large amount of convection expected in the Indian Ocean soon (MJO), will this have a positive effect moving forward? I'm starting to look at the winter forecast already.

Terrible to see the crazy heat you guys are going through down there. Cant imagine. Was in Houston for the June part of the summer and it was horrible.

It appears next week the high will slide off the both coasts. Lets hope Texas can have multiple widespread rain events. Maybe can get some green grass to grow, to help pump humidity in the atmosphere and lesson the likelihood of these highs getting comfortable over TX.

Probably too early but if you want to start somewhere with analogs 2000 and 2011 work best right now in terms of global SSTa, ENSO year similarities, 500mb matches and adjusting for a more modern climate. I posted maps in the EPAC thread on this. Of course no two years are exactly alike so one would consider different timings of varying oscillations. Cold mongers definitely rooting for 2000 route.

One thing that also could happen this year that did not in 2000 or 2011 is a significant TC. It remains to be seen if Texas will be affected by anything, but with the ridge establishing over Bermuda and the east coast starting next week, the Gulf will be more open for something.

[Yukon Cornelius]

We made it! 115!

Just thinking... with some of your temperatures commonly hitting the single digits in the winter... you've got to have some of the most incredible temperature swings to be found in this hemisphere.

I honestly don’t know how any vegetation, mainly trees survives the yearly swings.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Large amount of convection expected in the Indian Ocean soon (MJO), will this have a positive effect moving forward? I'm starting to look at the winter forecast already.

Terrible to see the crazy heat you guys are going through down there. Cant imagine. Was in Houston for the June part of the summer and it was horrible.

It appears next week the high will slide off the both coasts. Lets hope Texas can have multiple widespread rain events. Maybe can get some green grass to grow, to help pump humidity in the atmosphere and lesson the likelihood of these highs getting comfortable over TX.

Probably too early but if you want to start somewhere with analogs 2000 and 2011 work best right now in terms of global SSTa, ENSO year similarities, 500mb matches and adjusting for a more modern climate. I posted maps in the EPAC thread on this. Of course no two years are exactly alike so one would consider different timings of varying oscillations. Cold mongers definitely rooting for 2000 route.

Is it possible to throw 2013-14 into the ring? Likely one of the most exciting years for us winter lovers. That warm pool drifting towards Alaska looks healthy.
What I'm not entirely sure of, were expected to transition from Nina to Nino, which creates havoc in the atmosphere.

Sorry if this should be in another thread!

[rwfromkansas]

Another day, more rain that won’t impact DFW.

[Ntxw]

Another day, more rain that won’t impact DFW.

None of the models nor the WPC show much qpf in the next 7 days so I wouldn't get hopes up too much. Any rain that does happen is very small features that comes down to luck and randomness. Proximity does keep us below 105F though, that's a plus. Maybe we'll get 99s.

[funster]

Another day, more rain that won’t impact DFW.

Yeah, rain moving slowly north away from DFW region. Boo. Clouds tho.

[Ntxw]

Is it possible to throw 2013-14 into the ring? Likely one of the most exciting years for us winter lovers. That warm pool drifting towards Alaska looks healthy.
What I'm not entirely sure of, were expected to transition from Nina to Nino, which creates havoc in the atmosphere.

Sorry if this should be in another thread!

SSTAs any cool ENSO can be grouped early on to start so yeah I would say it can be bunched together with the cool ENSO states. It matches the others that feature a warm Fall. After that though is where things begin to diverge between the different cold neutrals and Ninas. If that warm pool stays in the Aleutians we bake through December, if it shifts east then we get -EPO.

[Ntxw]

Another day, more rain that won’t impact DFW.

Yeah, rain moving slowly north away from DFW region. Boo. Clouds tho.

No rain so far at DFW but 93 currently and peaked at 95 earlier which is close to what it should be for this time of year! (96)

[Iceresistance]

The rain is so close yet so far away . . .

It’s along and south of OK-39

[Brent]

Rained about 10 drops here again. Clouds are keeping temps under 100 it appears

[Ntxw]

Spoke too soon. Sun came out and it's 100F.

[Yukon Cornelius]

After 115 degree day two days ago and a 113 degree day yesterday, it appears that we topped out at 90 today. Thanks for the overcast day and earlier rain, even though it wasn’t much at all.