Caribbean - Central America Weather

[breeze]

I'm wishing for all of our friends in the Caribbean to be out of harm's way!

As our friend, Gusty, would say - stay safe and dry!

[abajan]

My sister just rang to say that a woman residing in the parish of St. Joseph lost her roof due to high winds.
My location has not had any such winds as yet but I’m bracing for the worst (and hoping for the best).

Live stream of one of our radio stations (Voice of Barbados):
http://vob929.ocmnet.net/voblive.html

Here’s another (Q100.7FM):
http://www.cbc.bb/index.php?option=com_ ... &Itemid=18

[FireBird]

Too many companies decided at the last minute to close office today, so the traffic was the expected nightmare; though i must say the police were out and trying to do their best to get things moving.
we're as prepped as we could be; i notice though that Tomas' path is taking it in the gap between Tobago and Barbados. I think Abajan that both these countries are going to be the worst affected this weekend. I think we will see deaths in Tobago from landslides.
I don't think that Trinidad will get the weather we were expecting as Tomas has gained significant latitude in a short time. Sad to say but that makes Trinidadians even more complacent afterward. in any case, I'm just glad to be safe than sorry.

[abajan]

... I think we will see deaths in Tobago from landslides ...

I sincerely hope not.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Warnings issued

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0300 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES TO A HURRICANE
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA
* DOMINICA

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1025 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LEFT BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED INTO
THE ATLANTIC. RIO GRANDE DE MANATI IS STILL RISING AND UPSTREAM
FLOW APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO SEND IT INTO MINOR FLOODING AT MANATI.

THE TRAJECTORY OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS LEFT LITTLE CHOICE AS TO
RAISING WINDS AND SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN EVEN WITHOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RIGHTWARD DEVIATION FROM COURSE. ROUGH
CALCULATIONS INDICATED THAT UP TO 13 FEET SEAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
FROM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CARIBBEAN
WATERS. WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE GFS THAN FORECAST BUT
EVEN THE FORECAST WINDS CAN GENERATE SEAS MEETING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEREFORE THE COASTAL WEATHER FORECAST WAS
UPDATED WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
PUT IN PLACE BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. SEAS
ARE LIKELY TO RISE ON THE WEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL BUT
WILL DO SO BEYOND DAY 3...AND THEREFORE WERE NOT HIGHLIGHTED WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES. THOSE PLANNING VOYAGES IN THESE
WATERS SHOULD CHECK LATER FORECASTS FOR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DEVELOPED QUITE QUICKLY TODAY
AND THIS LEAVES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEREFORE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF SAINT CROIX
AND PUERTO RICO. SEAS PASSING BUOY 42060 WILL GIVE A GOOD IDEA OF
WHAT TO EXPECT MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
HURRICANE TOMAS BY THAT TIME. EVEN AT ITS CLOSEST PROJECTED POINT
TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS SWELL WILL STILL TAKE 18 HOURS TO REACH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH TOMAS MAY ENHANCE LOCAL EFFECTS REGARDING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF CONVERGENCE BANDS LATER IN
THE WEEK WHEN THE SYSTEM IS WEST OR NORTHWEST OF US MAY INDUCE
HEAVY RAINS AND THIS TOO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF WATER SPOUTS IN OR NEAR RAIN BANDS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN OUR CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 30/13Z
IN A LIGHT LLVL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 KTS AFT 30/13Z...WITH SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SW PR RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS
TJPS AND TJMZ FROM 30/16Z-30/20Z. SHRAS AND TSRAS ASSOCIATED WITH
TS TOMAS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TNCM AND TKPK AFT 30/23Z...AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE VI BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

[abajan]

Well, I just heard that another roof in the same parish blew off. With a hurricane warning now in effect, I guess I’d better be prepared to hear more reports like that because although we’re in the hurricane belt, many structures here just aren’t built to withstand strong winds IMO.

Incidentally, it’s raining steadily now — not heavily though.

[cycloneye]

Well, I just heard that another roof in the same parish blew off. With a hurricane warning now in effect, I guess I’d better be prepared to hear more reports like that because although we’re in the hurricane belt, many structures here just aren’t built to withstand strong winds IMO.

Incidentally, it’s raining steadily now — not heavily though.

Take care my friend.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS MOVING IN A WEST NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AT NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF TOMAS WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS
SO FAR THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING AND THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A VERY NARROW ZONE OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR...JUST AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS. THIS RELATIVELY DRY
ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT LIVED AND NARROW DRY
SLOT...WILL BE FOLLOW BY BANDS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TOMAS LATE TODAY...TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

AT 5 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST...MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 70 MPH.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS AT ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AS A CAT 2 HURRICANE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. IF THIS
VERIFY...THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TOMAS MAY ENHANCE
LOCAL EFFECTS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF
CONVERGENCE BANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHEN THE SYSTEM IS
WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...MAY INDUCE HEAVY RAINS AND THIS
TOO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 30/13Z IN A LIGHT LLVL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS AFT 30/13Z...WITH SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SW PR RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS ACROSS TJPS AND TJMZ FROM 30/16Z-30/20Z. SHRAS AND TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH TS TOMAS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TNCM AND TKPK AFT
30/23Z...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE VI BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM TOMAS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 10 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
EVEN MORE ON MONDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.82 INCHES WAS SET AT SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.19
SET IN 1961.

[Macrocane]

Be safe abajan, my best wishes are with you. If Tomas is doing this like a tropical storm I don't wanto to think what it can do as a major hurricane.

[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested here is the latest weather forecast for Guadeloupe edited at 6AM. We just have a nice line of showers....

Regional service of Guadeloupe
Meteorological attentiveness Guadeloupe YELLOW LEVEL for " STRONG RAINS/THUNDERSTORMS "

Current situation and Observations
The cyclone " Tomas " - at the moment of category 1 cane is situated in the Southeast of the Lesser Antilles, near the island of the Barbados. Its movement the West Northwest should pull on our regions a sensitive deterioraton of the weather conditions.

Forecasts
Today on Saturday, the sea racks itself and becomes strong: average hollows of 2m50 in 3meters, even 3m50 in the evening, form by swell of Southeast. All coasts exposed to the South and in the East will be including allocated banks
of La Pointes des Chateaux as well as La Désirade, Marie Galante and Les Saintes.
In Caribbean, the sea is shaken with hollows reaching 2meters, even more, in the evening of Saturday.
The sea should ease then very gradually on Sunday.
On Saturday afternoon and during the next night, rain and thunderstorms will become more frequent and rainy accumulations of the order of 50 liters/m ² in 3 hours are expected. These rain values decreases gradually
on Sunday in the course of day.
The East winds at East-south-east should also accelerate to reach sustained winds 28 to 33 Knots (50 to 60 km/h) on Saturday evening and gustwinds 35 to 50 Knots (65 to 90 km/h) under thunderstorms. The wind decreases gradually on Sunday, remaining however moderated in rather hardly.

Comments/ Consequences
Because of a possible variation of the trajectory or the intensity of the cyclone "Tomas", we recommend you to remain attentive to our weather forecasts.

Summarized
The risk of emergence of the phenomenon is moderate. The expected impact is moderated.

Validity - duration of Phenomenon
From October 30th, 2010 till 10:00 am on October 31st, 2010 at 6:00 pm
Next bulletin: on Saturday, October 30th, 2010 at about 6:00 pm
INDIVIDUAL MEASURES OF BEHAVIOR VALIDATED IN THE SPECIFIC MEASURES " METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA " ORSEC" BE CAREFUL " YELLOW ATTENTIVENESS STRONG RAINS PREFECTURE OF GUADELOUPE
Bulletin of follow-up N °: 3
Episode N 20-GD
From October 30th, 2010 till 07:30 am
Regional service of Guadeloupe
BP 451 - 97183 ABYMES cedex
Inquire of the meteorological situation and be particularly careful:
- If you have to practise sports at outdoor risk.
- If your outdoor activities are situated in an exposed(explained) zone, on earth(ground), in particular in mountain, near
Streams, as offshore also.
- If you have to circulate in flood-risk areas;
- In case of thunderstorm: avoid the use of telephones and electric devices. Do not shelter in woody zone, right by pylons or posts.
Collective measures could be possibly recommended later by the Prefect.

[msbee]

good morning
We have cloudy rainy skies this morning.
I don't think that is related to Tomas although people here are already worried about Tomas affecting us.
I read the reports from abajan in Barbadps of roofs being blown off and trees down.
And yesterday morning when i was at the airport there, the sun was shining. How quickly things can change.
Abajan, thanks for your reporting.
I hope people will be OK there and I certainly hope people in Tobago will be OK too.
As firebird indicated, mudslides on that island could be a problem.

When I looked at the satellite this morning, i was surprised what a large area Tomas covers.

Be careful out there!

[cycloneye]

good morning
We have cloudy rainy skies this morning.
I don't think that is related to Tomas although people here are already worried about Tomas affecting us.
I read the reports from abajan in Barbadps of roofs being blown off and trees down.
And yesterday morning when i was at the ariport there, the sun was shining. How quickly things can change.
Anajan, thanks for your reporting.
I hope people will be OK there and I certainly hope people in Tobago will be OK too.
As firebird indicated, mudslides on that island could be a problem.

When I looked at the satellite this morning, i was surprised what a large area Tomas covers.

Be careful out there!

I saw the cam there and it seems like indirect showers related to the outer fringes of Tomas.

[msbee]

good morning Luis
the outer fringes of Tomas are reaching this far north already? this thing must be huge.

[msbee]

CROWNWEATHER Tropical Storm Tomas Discussion, Saturday October 30, 2010 at 800 am EDT/700 am

For Atlantic Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.

Tropical Storm Tomas:
For Information About Tropical Storm Tomas with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3734.

Tomas continues to intensify this morning and I fully expect the storm to become a hurricane within the next few hours. Reports from Barbados indicates that Tomas has inflicted considerable damage on the island with reports of roofs missing, a few light poles on fire and trees uprooted or snapped. At the time of this writing, reports indicate that winds are gusting to around 70 mph, especially on the south side of the island. Radar imagery from the Lesser Antilles indicates that an eyewall is likely forming, so heads up to everyone in Martinique, St. Lucia and St. Vincent that the weather will only get worse today and hurricane conditions are likely.

Environmental conditions are favorable over the next couple of days for further strengthening once Tomas tracks into the eastern Caribbean tonight. In fact, the SHIPS model rapid intensity index shows a 58 percent chance of a 25 knot increase in intensity and a 44 percent chance of a 30 knot increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. From later Sunday to about late Tuesday, the SHIPS model forecasts southwesterly wind shear to increase to around 15 knots which may put a cap on intensification during this time period. After that, the wind shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 knots allowing for more robust intensification in the central Caribbean in between Jamaica and Haiti. Tomas has a very good chance of becoming a major Category 3 or higher hurricane by Tuesday or Wednesday.

It appears that Tomas is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 15 mph and the storm is expected to track in between the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent around midday today. If you extrapolate the motion on the radar loops, Tomas may actually track right over the island of St. Vincent. A west-northwestward track is expected over the next two to three days as Tomas is influenced by a ridge of high pressure to the north of the storm. Starting on Tuesday the global model guidance are forecasting a strong trough of low pressure that will be tracking into the eastern United States and a cutoff low that is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. These two weather features should weaken this ridge of high pressure and thus Tomas will likely slow down in forward speed and potentially turn to the north. Many of the global model guidance members and hurricane track models are forecasting a turn to the north as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest GFDL model is forecasting Tomas to meander around for a day or so just south of Hispaniola and then come ashore across Hispaniola Wednesday night into Thursday.

The GFS and UKMET models forecast a track so that Tomas is located just south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic around Wednesday and then the GFS model forecasts Tomas to track slowly across Hispaniola during Friday.

The latest European model forecast shows a track that takes Tomas just south of Jamaica by early Wednesday and then forecasts Tomas to stall for more than 48 hours before tracking northward and making landfall in Jamaica late Friday or next Saturday.

I'm pretty much throwing out the European model as its depiction of a small circulation is obviously wrong as Tomas has a fairly large circulation. So, I'm pretty much going with the GFS model for this forecast as it seems to be correctly depicting Tomas in both intensity and size.

As I have already mentioned, I expect hurricane conditions to overspread the islands of Martinique, St. Lucia and St. Vincent by late this morning and then continue through much of the afternoon. In addition, total rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches are expected across much of the Windward Islands and also the southern Leeward Islands today through tonight.

In areas that have an onshore flow like on the islands of St. Lucia and Martinique, a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected and this surge will be accompanied by very large waves.

It should be noted that wherever Tomas tracks over the next several days in the central and eastern Caribbean, its large and expansive size will cause a very real threat for heavy rainfall next week from Jamaica and eastern Cuba eastward to Haiti and the Dominican Republic as well as Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

All interests across Barbados and the Windward Islands should closely monitor things today into tonight as Tomas moves through. All interests in the Caribbean, especially those in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic should keep extremely close watch on Tomas as it is poised to be a significant threat to the Caribbean next week. I will be monitoring Tomas very closely and will keep you all updated.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[Gustywind]

Huge system hope that everyone is ok. I don't forget you HUC , we continue to keep or fingers crossed in spite of Tomas in vicinity of the Windwards.

[Gustywind]

good morning Luis
the outer fringes of Tomas are reaching this far north already? this thing must be huge.

Absolutelty Barbara you're right! Guadeloupe does not seem out of a good spiral band to the north of Tomas during the next couple of hours! This thing is very huge i won't be surprised to deal with the assaults of strong outer band today! We also know the incertitudes concerning the final and the intensity of this surprising TOMAS . We should be frankly on our guard today.

[HurricaneQueen]

To all of our friends in the islands, please be safe! Barb, so glad you got out in time. What a strange year!

Lynn

[BZSTORM]

Wishing everyone in Tomas path to keep safe and hoping for no loss of life, Hope abajan is ok and can update us as soon as power restored, just read news article that says powerlines down, roofs off, trees uprooted mostly on south side of island, no loss of life reported so far. http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE69T13Q20101030

One thing for sure this season has been wake up call for allot of ppl in Belize, allot more ppl paying attention to invests now after so many have gone from nada to TS in hours, and speeded travel up, its caught many with their pants down - both in taking storms seriously & that leassons learned from H.Iris have been forgotten, incl areas in Belize like Belmopan (considered to far inland to be threatened by a hurricane) building codes were not adehered too for last 10 years, 70% of the damaged homes in that area were not built to the standards put in place when Belmopan was first established following H. Hatti, complacency is a dangerous commodity.