Ntxw wrote:gboudx wrote:Ntxw wrote:At 500mb the feature to watch is the persistence of the southwest/baja trough. This feature is a strong anomaly during weak and moderate El Ninos. It is the secret sauce to winter if it persists.
Hopefully we see one of those events where an arctic front of sufficient depth pushes through, and disturbances pinwheel off the trough bringing precip to parts of Texas. Wintry precip goldmine.
There will be a lot of happy campers. This exact pattern, if this were 2 months down the road, would be a significant snow event.
Yeah, but during El Ninos there’s usually not much artic air to work with, correct? I’ve always thought that during El Ninos the polar artic jet stays up in Canada and the only reason why we see below normal anomalies was due to the rain and cloud cover.