Texas Spring 2019

[rwfromkansas]

Doesn't look like tomorrow will be a situation where the storms take awhile to get severe if I am reading things correct. Wherever they fire will get a good hit, even if fairly close to storm initiation.

[Brent]

Yikes

[Haris]

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like the HRRR breaks out some monsters before bringing another line through.

[gpsnowman]

Looks like the HRRR breaks out some monsters before bringing another line through.

Steve McCauley is impressed with the severe aspect tomorrow. He has a nice write up on Facebook this evening. Could be a long night of weather watching.

[bubba hotep]

[Cpv17]

Wow at the 0z Euro

[WacoWx]

Please elaborate on what is shows.

[rwfromkansas]

Enhanced western edge getting closer to DFW in latest update. May reduce rain totals IMBY since it won’t be organized enough until Dallas County. Surprised no moderate risk.

[Ntxw]

Please elaborate on what is shows.

Rainy eastern and southern Texas, with rain bombs in S Texas.

As far as today's even a few storms could overperform if they blow up but at the same time it has potential to bust with nothing at all and even little rain along and west of I-35

[rwfromkansas]

NAM barely even gives DFW rain. HRRR also tapering northern extent. Looks like things MAY stay south or DFW will get northern edge. Trend is not good this morning if you want heavy rain/severe weather across all of DFW. Explains the deadness here overnight. I don't want baseball hail, but do want more rain. We will see how things evolve...a lot can change during the day.

[bubba hotep]

Complex setup, so not too worried witb current model runs. Watch moisture return this morning, that will play a role in the formation of early storms. The models have introduced a scenario in which early storms fire east of DFW and late storms miss to the south. Let's see how the day evolves.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171234
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...COR
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
458 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A (Tues)day of brisk onshore flow is evident in this morning`s
middle 60 dew points and lower overcast skies. GOES satellite PWAT
product shows 1.5 to 1.7 inch pw air hugging the lower Texas
coastline. This air mass will be advected north into southeastern
Texas upon today`s 25 to 45 knot mid-layer south to southwest
steering flow. A 30 to 40 knot low level jet will aid in
saturating up the lower few hundred millibar near-surface layer
underneath a fairly stout 700-800 mb inversion. The combination of
an unseasonable pwat air mass (slightly under the 99th percentile
from the Coastal Bend source region), a pronounced low level jet
and warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s should allow for the
formation of widely scattered west-to-east showers. There is a
late afternoon chance for elevated thunder as lapse rates above
the warm nose are forecast to reach or exceed 8 deg C/km.

As the western U.S. trough evolves into a broad upper low over the
southern Rockies this afternoon and moves into the OK-TX
Panhandles this evening, the chance for south central Texas
convection along the dry line boundary will be on the rise. The
highest confidence of this highly advertised scenario remains the
same; that of clustering thunderstorms forming west of the San
Antonio area and advancing eastward with discrete cells moving up
ahead of this clustering and impacting those counties immediately
to our CWA`s west and northwest through the evening hours. These
discrete cells may come together as a ragged QLCS and move across
the northern third of the forecast area from around midnight
through a few hours before sunrise Thursday. While the southern
two-thirds of our CWA will be under stout capping, there may be
enough frontal forcing or lingering upper exhaust from a northeast
exiting right rear jet quad to advance a few strong storms across
the Houston metro area around or just after sunrise. If storms do
impact the city, they will center around the height of the morning
rush hour(s).

The main threat mode has transitioned from large hail (last night)
to more of a locally heavy rain threat. While CIPS analogs keep
all of the severe weather to our north over areas that have
recently been hammered with large hail and long track tornadoes,
the thinking that storm cells could train is taking root in this
morning`s messaging. As storm motion vectors become more parallel
to the mean environmental flow, clustering storms could repeatedly
travel across the same areas over a relatively small amount of
time. High pw air in the 1.6 to 1.7 inch range that will be lifted
by either decent frontogenesis or upstream convective outflow
lift (or both), in tandem with a splitting jet structure, boosts
confidence into the high moderate range that those far interior
communities stand a good chance of picking up 6 hour 2 to near 4
inch rainfall amounts. This behavior could provide a rapid rise to
quick response waterways and their tributaries. Towns and rural
areas generally along and north of a Columbus to Conroe to
Livingston line will be under the gun for locally heavy rainfall
leading to overnight flash flooding. Large hail will be a secondary
threat. Another mode to consider would be damaging downburst
winds if these discrete cells or clusters form into a quasi-organized
squall line as they advance into the (north)eastern CWA after 2
or 3 AM.

West winds kick in behind this system and relatively cooler air
behind a Thursday cold frontal passage scours out mid to late
morning lingering showers and isolated storms. West-to-east
clearing with afternoon middle 70s across the more wet ground
northern counties to the lower 80s over the relatively drier
southern CWA. Friday will sport stout offshore winds with a
mostly sunny day warming into the slightly below normal lower to
middle 70s (per the efficient mixing brought on by moderate to
strong northerlies). A very nice Easter weekend with onshore flow
returning Saturday and strengthening on a partially cloudy Easter
Sunday. Lower 60 sunrise temperatures Easter Sunday will be
around 10 degrees warmer than Saturday`s min Ts...both days will
warm into the average lower 80s.

Early next week`s precipitation chances will be on the rise each
subsequent day from Monday through Wednesday. The impetus to
return showers/isolated storms will be the slow deepening of a
western upper trough. the associated northeastern Mexico surface
low may allow an emanating lower level trough/boundary to develop
across south central Texas. This lower level focus, in tandem with
a series of shortwave disturbances rounding the bend of the western
Texas 5H trough axis, will keep at least moderate POPs in the
extended. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas slightly diminished overnight. Have cancelled the
high risk of rip current statement for the time being and will let
the dayshift re-evaluate with beach patrol officials. The gradient
tightens this evening ahead of the incoming storm system and onshore
winds and seas will increase to small craft advisory criteria. May
see some minor overwash at Highway 87/124 on the Bolivar Peninsula
tonight around the high tide (~4am).

Look for showers and thunderstorms to push east-to-west across the
waters Thursday morning along with a westerly wind shift. A cold
front will follow during the afternoon and nw winds will increase to
20-30kt overnight. Will need to keep an eye on possible low water
conditions late Thurs night & Fri morning at low tide across
northern bay locations.

Winds diminish late Fri as high pressure builds in. Onshore flow
resumes on Saturday as it moves off to the east and persists into
early next week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions will persist across the region for the next 24 hours
or so. Expect some streamer shra generally north of a Matagorda-
Livingston line today, with slightly better coverage around CLL, UTS
& CXO terminals this afternoon. Main focus will be timing of precip
expected to arrive tonight (likely a line of shra/tstms) between 6-
12z. Most favorable locations for strongest & training heavy storms
look to be situated just north of the metro airports...say north of
a Columbus-Livingston line. But it is spring...so subject to
changes. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 63 76 53 75 / 40 100 30 10 0
Houston (IAH) 79 67 80 55 76 / 30 90 60 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 75 70 77 62 75 / 20 60 70 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31/47

[rwfromkansas]

Latest NAM 3km actually gets huge cells in a first round just north of DFW but still gets DFW with stuff with effectively two lines. Still a lot to look at today. Definitely agree it's a complex forecast.

Update to add HRRR going back stronger again. So, who knows. Just hope people stay safe.

[Cpv17]

It’s looking like next week there could be a significant flood risk somewhere in Texas.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Sprinkling a little bit North of WF.

[WacoWx]

I'm surprised there is not more posts today. In DFW, this is all that people are talking about today. Major storm preparations, offices closing early, etc.. Is there more bark than bite with today's scenario?

[Brent]

if these clouds and drizzle hang out hard to get too excited imo

[Ntxw]

I'm surprised there is not more posts today. In DFW, this is all that people are talking about today. Major storm preparations, offices closing early, etc.. Is there more bark than bite with today's scenario?

That pretty much guarantees nothing will happen.

Most folks will get not much. One or two storms may go severe for a few locales. If we're lucky a line of storms may creep up from the south after sundown.

[TexasStorm]

Even the NWS in FW is not certain.


The main concern through the mid afternoon hours will be the
potential for deep convection to develop in the vicinity of the
I-35 corridor and areas east. Most of the convection allowing
guidance shows thunderstorms erupting on the leading edge of
stronger ascent associated with a weak disturbance ahead of the
main upper trough, however, this area is also in the thicker
cloud cover with stronger capping. If thunderstorms do develop in
this area over the next several hours, they would likely become
severe with a large hail and tornado threat.