Texas Summer 2022

[bubba hotep]

[South Texas Storms]

Past few runs of the Euro are showing a much needed pattern change for the Southern Plains in a little over a week with a weakness developing between ridges on the East and West Coast. Other models aren't as bullish. Hope the Euro can score on this one.

[bubba hotep]

Past few runs of the Euro are showing a much needed pattern change for the Southern Plains in a little over a week with a weakness developing between ridges on the East and West Coast. Other models aren't as bullish. Hope the Euro can score on this one.

King EURO, is that you?

[Brent]

Most rain in weeks I've seen on radar here. Hopefully a sign of things to come

[Ntxw]

Portland, OR is forecasted to be 100s down the road and Seattle into the 90s. This is joy for Texas! Inverse correlation.

[gpsnowman]

Portland, OR is forecasted to be 100s down the road and Seattle into the 90s. This is joy for Texas! Inverse correlation.

Just like last year when the Pacific Northwest was baking and we were not so hot. I agree with this scenario.

[Iceresistance]

Most rain in weeks I've seen on radar here. Hopefully a sign of things to come

Your area got clobbered with a severe thunderstorm earlier, the storms tried to get here but the drought ate it up.

[Iceresistance]

Past few runs of the Euro are showing a much needed pattern change for the Southern Plains in a little over a week with a weakness developing between ridges on the East and West Coast. Other models aren't as bullish. Hope the Euro can score on this one.

King EURO, is that you?

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022072112/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Come on Euro! You can do this! You are our only hope! We're counting on you!

[Brent]

Most rain in weeks I've seen on radar here. Hopefully a sign of things to come

Your area got clobbered with a severe thunderstorm earlier, the storms tried to get here but the drought ate it up.

I'm on the other side of the city from the severe but still had a legit rain. Even just now driving home it rained the entire way. A much different night than the previous where the sun was still in your eyes

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Past few runs of the Euro are showing a much needed pattern change for the Southern Plains in a little over a week with a weakness developing between ridges on the East and West Coast. Other models aren't as bullish. Hope the Euro can score on this one.

King EURO, is that you?

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022072112/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

It don't matter who's in Austin, Euro is still the king.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff:

For the first time this week there are no heat related warnings or advisories for the area.

Upper level ridge of high pressure currently located over the SW US will back westward slightly today and weaken on the eastern flank. This will allow a trough over the southern US to move westward a bit. Local radars over LA this morning show a complex of thunderstorms east of the central LA area moving westward and convection allowing models (CAMs) are in general agreement that this complex and its associated outflow boundary will continue westward toward the Sabine River today and then into east Texas this afternoon and toward the I-45 corridor by mid to late afternoon. With the subsidence from the ridge weakening over the area and moisture increasing from the east, expect the complex of storms or new storms to form along the leading westward moving outflow boundary. Best chances of rainfall will be east of I-45, although CAMs are suggesting areas of northern Harris, Liberty, San Jacinto, Walker, and Montgomery Counties may see the best chances this afternoon. Rainfall will be scattered and mainly focused east of I-45, so while there is about a 30% chance this afternoon, not everyone will see rain.

Ridge starts to shift back eastward this weekend, but still think there will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday with the seabreeze front and continued decent moisture levels before subsidence overruns the region again by Sunday. Ridge looks to never fully gain a foot hold over SE TX compared to the recent weeks and is based more north of the area so temperatures into next week look more like the mid to upper 90’s with 100’s over the Brazos Valley instead of the widespread 100’s of late. Additionally with the ridge axis just enough to the north this will open the door for westward moving tropical waves to move into the TX coast. The first should arrive around Tue/Wed with increased rain chances followed by another around next Friday. This slight pattern shift may be able to bring some drought and heat relief to the region.

Fire Weather:
Afternoon humidity values have not been mixing out as much as earlier this week and winds have returned to a more typical summer pattern of mainly light southerly and this has helped to reduce the critical fire weather concerns from earlier in the week. Fuel loads are extremely dry through the entire column and will remain dry until widespread wetting rains occur.

There is some concern this afternoon that storms in the are could producing lightning starts and may not produce rainfall over any new starts. Additionally, outflow winds of 40-50mph could quickly fan any new starts. Generally these would be short lived conditions, but similar activity and conditions in N TX earlier this week produced several wildfires due to lightning followed by little or no rainfall at the ignition site.

Jeff Lindner

[Ntxw]

DFW is actually still on pace to beat or tie 1980's monthly average as the hottest July. We saw another record low (6th record in a row, 16 80F or higher so far this month) that's keeping up the averages. The pattern relief may or may not keep us below 100 consistently, it would need to in order not to catch 1980. 91.7F currently is #2 with the record being 92F.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has highs in the mid 80s next weekend with a lot of rain

[weatherdude1108]

Portland, OR is forecasted to be 100s down the road and Seattle into the 90s. This is joy for Texas! Inverse correlation.

Just like last year when the Pacific Northwest was baking and we were not so hot. I agree with this scenario.

I have a friend who lives in Portland. He mentioned the terrible heat last year, while we were getting regular rains. This year he boasts about highs in the 70s lows in the 50s, while we bake and suffer. So yes, I am agreeing we should see a flip, so I can rub it in and see him on the flip side! But seriously, this can't happen soon enough. I'll be on vacation starting next Friday in Hawaii for a couple weeks (never been). We'll probably get 5 inches and be in the 80s while I'm out, and Hawaii will get a heat wave.lol

[Edwards Limestone]

I'll believe it when I see it re: pattern change. Looks like better precip chances for areas to our north and east mostly- but hey at least it's something

SAT is likely on pace for a top 5 driest year. (10.11" in 1917 is the all-time record). Can we go below 10"? I say yes.

[SoupBone]

Can someone please explain why there's a wall, west of 45? In my area (Cypress) I'm watching it light up like the 4th July and we're not getting anything. I just don't get it.

[weatherdude1108]

Can someone please explain why there's a wall, west of 45? In my area (Cypress) I'm watching it light up like the 4th July abs we're not getting anything. I just don't get it.

Death ridge influence? I hate that ridge.

[Iceresistance]

Can someone please explain why there's a wall, west of 45? In my area (Cypress) I'm watching it light up like the 4th July abs we're not getting anything. I just don't get it.

Death ridge influence? I hate that ridge.

The cockroach death ridge to be exact, the same is going on in my area with the rain except it's even more localized. Rain and storms all around, but not here.

EDIT: Heard some thunder just to the east of my location, Radar has a really good storm near Earlsboro and Shawnee but I don't think it's coming to my location sadly.

[Iceresistance]

Finally! It's raining at the house!

[Iceresistance]

Just checked the rain gauge, .3 inches!