MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CASCADES OF WESTERN WA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 091221Z - 091615Z
   
   HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE 3000 TO 3500 FEET LEVEL FOR
   MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CASCADES OF WRN WA. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
   SLOWLY RISE WITH SNOWFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR
   WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE
   EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE FAR ERN PACIFIC ACROSS WA INTO SW CANADA.
   THE MOISTURE PLUME IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT SIDE OF A 60 KT SWLY
   JET AT THE 850 TO 700 MB LEVEL. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE AS THE JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
   MTNS DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE
   RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RANGE ACROSS THE
   CASCADES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING
   CAUSES TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD RISE FROM THE 3000 TO 3500 FOOT
   LEVEL TO THE 4000 TO 4500 FOOT LEVEL BY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...
   
   48792066 48032042 46582083 45862128 45732200 46162260
   47692228 48662197 48892152

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NE TX...EXTREME SERN OK...NWRN LA...SWRN
   AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 100001Z - 100230Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NE TX IN 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME
   AND MOVE/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER DISCUSSION AREA THEREAFTER.
   MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.
   
   MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CLOSING OVER TX PANHANDLE AND WILL BECOME
   LESS POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT PIVOTS EWD OVER OK THROUGH NEXT 4-6
   HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK FRONTOGENETIC/CYCLOGENETIC FORCING
   ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER AREA WILL STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH
   REMAINDER EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION APCHS...RESULTING IN
   INCREASE IN BOTH 0-3 KM AGL LAYER FLOW AND HODOGRAPH SIZE...AS WELL
   AS IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA E OF SFC LOW AND ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE.  SFC
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW BETWEEN DAL-TYR...WHICH WILL
   SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD TXK.
   
   VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SSW-NNE ORIENTED BOUNDARY LAYER CU STREAMERS
   GENERALLY E OF CRP-PRX LINE...DENOTING WRN EDGE OF RICHEST BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE.  MEANWHILE PLUME OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED/SHALLOW CONVECTION
   THAT IS THICKENING OVER CENTRAL TX...BETWEEN DFW METROPLEX AND JCT.
   WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS THIS PLUME WILL MOVE OVER NWRN PORTION OF AREA
   NOW COVERED BY CU FIELD...IN NE TX.  AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO AT LEAST
   30 KT...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN AND PARCELS TO LIFT ISENTROPICALLY TO
   LFC...REALIZING MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG.  BUOYANCY SHOULD BE ROOTED
   JUST ABOVE SFC S OF FRONTAL ZONE AND MORE ELEVATED FARTHER N OVER
   AR.  STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR PROFILES AND SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND
   OCCASIONAL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...
   
   32269595 33469525 34519501 34489443 34399388 34169353
   33389329 32529354 31389432 30989541 31269615 31999605

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN OK...SCENTRAL/SERN KS AND CENTRAL/SRN
   MO
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 100630Z - 101130Z
   
   BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME HEAVY
   AT TIMES WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS INTO
   NERN OK/SERN KS OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS. FURTHER EAST...MODERATE RAIN
   IS ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER SWRN
   AND CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 08-11Z. A NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO WHERE THE STRONGEST
   ELEVATED WAA WILL EXIST.
   
   LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
   ZONE WAS INTENSIFYING OVER SCENTRAL KS/NCENTRAL OK AS BACKING 500 MB
   FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED AT LAMONT AND WICHITA...WHILE VEERING MID
   LEVEL FLOW WAS OCCURRING AT VICI AND DODGE CITY. RADAR IMAGERY
   INDICATES THAT SEVERAL SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE
   SNOWFALL AT TIMES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO
   PRIMARY BANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS.
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR AGGREGATION IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT
   ALONG WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
   REGION...MODERATE TO STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT E-W
   ORIENTED MODERATE PRECIPITATION BAND DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN INTO
   CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY ABOVE FREEZING
   ACROSS THIS AREA...WET-BULB EFFECTS SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES
   APPROACHING FREEZING NORTH OF A LINE FROM CNU TO SGF BY 09Z. THUS A
   CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
   THE AREA BY 09Z. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA...AN ELEVATED WARM
   LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM SGF TO VIH. IN THIS
   REGION...THERE WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
   TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN FROM 09-12Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   38699216 38609421 38129595 37599749 36929830 36439861
   36099823 36229728 36439629 36689539 37019348 37309182
   38419114

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...NE OK...WRN AND CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 101232Z - 101630Z
   
   PERIODIC HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK...SE KS
   AND WRN MO. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER AR WITH AN INVERTED
   TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS SW MO INTO SE KS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
   MAXIMIZED ACROSS SE KS AND NE OK IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET
   MAX NEAR 700 MB. ACROSS SW MO...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S F
   AND SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   DAY. JUST ABOVE THE SFC...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
   PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
   OVER OK DRIFTS ENEWD. THE HEAVIEST SNOWBANDS SHOULD BE NORTH AND
   NORTHWEST OF THE 850 MB LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR TULSA AND SHOULD
   SHIFT NEWD INTO SCNTRL MO BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
   INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. SNOWFALL SHOULD
   GRADUALLY LIGHTEN ACROSS SE KS AND NE OK BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
   WRAP PRECIPITATION SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS WRN MO.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   38109567 38799420 39259259 38889165 38129146 37319237
   36549427 36119588 36429662 37419669

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WA...NRN ID...NW MT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 101304Z - 101700Z
   
   HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MTNS OF WA...NRN ID AND NW
   MT TODAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY
   WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS MAINLY ABOVE THE 3500 TO 4000 FOOT LEVEL.
   
   
   WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POCKET OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING EWD
   ACROSS ERN WA...NRN ID AND NW MT WITH A SECONDARY PLUME OF MOISTURE
   SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN ORE AND SRN WA. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED
   WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED NNW TO SSE...LOCATED JUST WEST OF
   THE CASCADES WITH A 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WA AND ORE. AS
   THE LEFT EXIT REGIN OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION
   ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY. AS A
   RESULT...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE WITH
   THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4000
   FEET IN THE CASCADES AND ABOUT 3000 FEET IN THE BITTEROOTS. SNOW
   LEVELS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OR RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
   SNOWFALL HEAVIEST ABOVE 400O FEET.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...
   
   46881575 47371625 47931760 47941893 47651990 46952061
   46222118 46552216 47962179 48962019 48881654 48171488
   47331428 46791478

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101842Z - 101945Z
   
   A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN INTO PARTS OF
   MIDDLE TN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS OVER SWRN TN /CURRENTLY
   LOCATED OVER WRN HAYWOOD TO FAYETTE COUNTIES/. THIS LINE OF STORMS
   WAS MOVING NEWD AT 35-40 KT ALONG A WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT
   WHICH EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR MEM NEWD TO NERN TN.  DESPITE
   WEAK AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...A SWLY 50 KT LLJ PER MEMPHIS VAD
   SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST TO REACH THE
   SURFACE PER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER.  ANY ADDITIONAL LINE
   SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE A SIMILAR THREAT
   POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A WIDESPREAD
   SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED...AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
   ISSUANCE OF A WW.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
   
   35748941 36068939 36428884 36568739 36558675 35298668
   35068774 35018929

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MIDDLE TN AND WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102101Z - 102230Z
   
   ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AND
   OR EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA...IS EXPECTED ACROSS A PART OF NRN
   MIDDLE TN AND WRN KY THROUGH 23-00Z.  LIMITED THREAT AREA AND
   OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE
   OF A WW.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A BOW ECHO...APEX NOW MOVING INTO SWRN KY
   /TRIGG COUNTY/...MAINTAINING A SPEED OF 40 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
   GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL.  THIS BOW CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG
   THE WARM FRONT.  THIS BOUNDARY PER SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS WAS
   RETREATING NWD AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 11/00Z
   AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...NOW OVER SERN MO DEEPENS AND MOVES
   NEWD.  DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOW ECHO...COLD
   POOL COMBINED WITH 50 KT SWLY LLJ...NOW OBSERVED AT PAH VAD...SHOULD
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF ONGOING BOW.
   DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY RESULT IN
   A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...
   
   36358790 36818775 37038780 37208805 37588768 37868729
   38178587 36978595 36578652

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF ID
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 110033Z - 110530Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF ID
   THIS EVENING...WITH 2 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE
   5500-6000 FT.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
   TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT
   INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF ID. 00Z BOISE RAOB AND
   LOCAL WSR-88D VWP ALREADY FEATURES MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 50 KTS
   OR GREATER ABOVE 4 KM...WITH 0.66 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND
   200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ REPRESENTATIVE OF MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ALSO IN
   ACCORDANCE WITH 00Z BOISE RAOB...MESONET OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY
   DEPICT SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500-6000 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   MOUNTAINS...WHICH SHOULD FLUCTUATE LITTLE TONIGHT AMIDST THE
   PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO WEST FACING SLOPES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...
   
   44981670 44831536 44071431 43401404 43231483 43451548
   44051590 44501634 44681672

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 110548Z - 110945Z
   
   LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE REGION
   BETWEEN 08-12Z. HRLY AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.02-0.04 IN.
   
   MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
   ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPPER
   SYSTEM OVER THE MID MS VALLEY HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS UPPER
   LOW...CENTERED OVER WCENTRAL IL AT 06Z...MOVES ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL
   IND BY 12Z...THIS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
   NRN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
   FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY. ELY
   WINDS ALONG WITH WET-BULB EFFECTS IN THE LOW LEVEL SHOULD SUPPORT
   LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FREEZING LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WILL SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
   FREEZING RAIN OVER THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION COMMENCES.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   44888408 44708581 44308629 43608646 43458635 43458477
   43758395 44368334 44718333

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 111835Z - 112330Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH PER 3 HOUR
   PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN ME BETWEEN 21-00Z.
   
   LATEST MESO-ANALYSES INDICATED A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED INLAND
   OVER SRN ME...GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM FRANKLIN TO WASHINGTON
   COUNTIES.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
   INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 20S...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 32F
   THROUGH 00Z.  ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A RATHER DRY AIR MASS
   ACROSS ME...CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/N
   OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
   OF THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL LIKELY AID IN MOISTENING.
   THIS LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
   SURFACE AND MOST PRONOUNCED FROM 850-950 MB TO SUPPORT A PTYPE FOR
   FREEZING RAIN.
   
   LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM OVER SERN ONTARIO TO FAR SRN QUEBEC IS
   EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD INTO NRN ME LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH RATES
   UP TO 0.1 INCH PER 3 HOUR EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
   
   45666763 45366887 45617064 46627018 47536922 47316777

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122154Z - 122330Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT LARGELY ELEVATED CONVECTION
   IS ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED NEAR HOU AS OF 2135Z.
   CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WITH
   TEMPERATURES OF 70-75 F.  HOWEVER...A MOISTENING BOUNDARY-LAYER
   COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY ARE LIKELY
   ERODING CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS.
   
   DESPITE SOME WEAKNESSES IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE 2-6 KM
   LAYER...CURRENT LEDBETTER TX PROFILER INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  GIVEN
   MUCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN
   BOUNDARY-LAYER.
   
   CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ATTM OWING TO THE
   ABSENCE OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
   TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS
   EVENING ACROSS FAR ERN TX WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA
   AHEAD OF STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   29409542 29599609 30429651 31219617 31789518 31959444
   31589381 30829364 29889400

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122326Z - 130130Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET OVER ERN OK/WRN
   AR...AND SWD INTO PARTS OF NERN TX/NWRN LA.  WW WILL LIKELY BE
   REQUIRED BY 13/01Z.
   
   LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTENING/ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
   CIRCULATION CENTER OF S CENTRAL KS -- MOVING EWD INTO ERN
   OK...TOWARD LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID
   TO UPPER 50S.  INCREASING UVV AND ASSOCIATED COOLING/MOISTENING
   WITHIN THE CAPPING LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
   /AROUND 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/...WITH SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER ERN OK/WRN AR SOMEWHERE AROUND 13/02Z.
   
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...THOUGH STORMS COULD BE
   ELEVATED ABOVE A SLIGHTLY STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  THOUGH THIS
   WOULD INDICATE THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED CAPE...AND VERY
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY AS
   STORMS BECOME MORE INTENSE/WELL ESTABLISHED AND POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO
   DRAW INFLOW AIR FROM VERY NEAR THE SURFACE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   36589483 36399412 35699294 34259263 32449379 32319610
   33549653

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130035Z - 130230Z
   
   IT APPEARS SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
   FAR SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MO...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   RECENT IR IMAGERY FEATURES COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EXTREME
   NORTHEAST OK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ARRIVAL OF DEEPER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY
   IS QUESTIONABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO MO /REF 00Z SPRINGFIELD
   MO RAOB/...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E INFLUX
   WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PER RUC SOUNDINGS.
   THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PRESENCE OF AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
   LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
   MO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
   
   37029442 37599364 38099171 37479102 36919114 36659164
   36539294 36659414

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0952 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SRN MO/WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...
   
   VALID 130352Z - 130515Z
   
   LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN
   HALF OF WW.
   
   SQUALL LINE -- WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS AND LOCALLY ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS -- IS ONGOING ATTM FROM SWRN MO SSWWD INTO NERN TX.  THE
   STORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH/ALONG SURFACE
   FRONT...WHERE WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. 
   
   THOUGH STORMS APPEAR TO BE SURFACE-BASED OR NEARLY SO...OBSERVED
   SEVERE WEATHER HAS REMAINED IN THE FORM OF HAIL THUS FAR.
   NONETHELESS...WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AND 451 M2/S2 0-1 KM SREH PER
   LATEST DEQUEEN AR PROFILER...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS
   WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...
   
   36939312 36399144 32069343 32099635 32389644 34349458

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1110 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AR/NERN TX/NRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...
   
   VALID 130510Z - 130645Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES WITH SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW. NEW
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED E/SE OF CURRENT WW.
   
   LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
   THROUGH AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THOUGH AIRMASS
   REMAINS MORE STABLE NEAR/E OF THE MS RIVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AR AND ADJACENT NRN LA TO ALLOW
   LINE OF STORMS TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT SHIFTS E OF WW BETWEEN 06Z
   AND 07Z. 
   
   THEREFORE...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS SQUALL LINE
   MOVES EWD...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER ERN AR AND PARTS OF NRN LA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...FWD...
   
   36549274 36389147 33079118 31659236 31899583 33579413
   35689293

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR AND NWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...
   
   VALID 130708Z - 130745Z
   
   THE LINE OF TSTMS HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF WT 13 AND INTO WT 14.
   TAIL END OF THE SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN LAGGING ACROSS NWRN LA AND
   ECNTRL TX.  A LINE MOVEMENT OF 260/35 SUGGESTS THAT ERN DESOTO AND
   RED RIVER PARISHES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A TSTM THREAT THROUGH ABOUT
   08-0830Z.  THESE TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
   MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CNTRL LA AND ERN AR BY 08Z.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
   
   32259402 36419204 36429151 31979350

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...MS AND ERN/CNTRL LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130747Z - 130915Z
   
   WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM FROM WT 14.
   
   UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE INTENSITY HAS BEEN STEADY STATE OR ON A SLOW
   DECLINE SINCE 06Z AS IT OUT PACES THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS HINT...HOWEVER...THAT A
   STRONGER IMPULSE IS BEGINNING TO TURN EWD ACROSS N TX AND SRN OK.
   AS THIS STRONGER ASCENT MIGRATES TOWARD THE MS RVR...TSTM INTENSITY
   SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO INCREASE WITHIN THE LINE...AND PERHAPS
   AHEAD OF IT.
   
   SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 60-65 DEGREES F WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO THE MS
   DELTA AND CNTRL/SRN MS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING TROUGH.  GIVEN SIGNIFICANT CROSS-FRONT COMPONENT TO THE
   MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ATOP SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM ABOUT CNTRL MS
   SWD TO THE GULF COAST...THE HIGHEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST
   THERE.
   
   FARTHER N...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE
   MID-LEVEL LOW AND THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL
   TO THE FRONT.  GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
   LOWER...MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS IN NRN MS AND WRN TN WILL BE HAIL OR
   PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...
   
   31458917 30168955 30199047 30599157 31489129 32889053
   34399036 36438939 36458770 35838763 34468798

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA AND EXTREME WCNTRL MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...
   
   VALID 131000Z - 131100Z
   
   FAST MOVING LINE OF TSTMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MS RVR NORTH OF
   ABOUT VICKSBURG AND WILL CROSS INTO SWRN MS FROM NERN LA SOUTH OF
   THAT LATITUDE BY 11Z.  AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT IN WT 14 WILL
   END.  UNTIL THEN...TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NERN LA AND
   WRN MS AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK BEGINS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE LWR MS
   VLY.  LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE TSTM LINE SEGMENT
   APPROACHING AREAS N AND W OF NATCHEZ MS IS BOWING AND MAY PRODUCE
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  EXTRAPOLATION HAS THIS
   CELL INTO WT 16 BY 11Z.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
   
   31529259 33099093 32729051 32039080 31299155

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...ERN LA...SWRN AL AND EXTREME WRN FL
   PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131120Z - 131245Z
   
   IR SATL SUGGESTS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS CNTRL MS
   SWWD TO THE GULF COAST EAST OF KLCH AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE SWINGS
   TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY. THE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE
   SOMEWHAT POOR QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT WEAK
   INSTABILITY FIELDS.  STRONGER STORMS APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS
   ERN LA WHERE 60-63 DEGREE F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXIST.  BUT...THUS
   FAR THIS MORNING...TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN ROOTED ABOVE A NEAR
   SURFACE STABLE LAYER...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A JACKSON MS LATITUDE.
   
   AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE LWR
   MS VLY...THE ERN LA/SRN MS STORMS MAY BEGIN TO ROOT CLOSER TO THE
   SURFACE.  DOWNSTREAM...THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY/ DESTABILIZATION
   INTO SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND
   STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY TEND TO FAVOR THIS ZONE.
   AS SUCH...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM...AT LEAST INTO THE
   REMAINDER OF SRN MS...SRN AL AND WRN FL PNHDL.
   
   STRONGEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN MS...LA AND
   EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN AL AND WRN FL PNHDL.  COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY
   STRONGER INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
   TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THOSE AREAS.  ELSEWHERE...DAMAGING
   WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE THE SEVERE
   THREATS.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   29629282 31239209 33618965 33668800 32848746 31328661
   30128621 29048692 29508997

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN FL PNHDL AND SRN/CNTRL GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131615Z - 131745Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 18Z.
   
   AS OF 16Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONGLY FORCED
   CONVECTIVE LINE FROM MIDDLE TN SSWWD INTO CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL
   PNHDL. MOST INTENSE PORTION OF LINE /COMPOSED OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES/ EXTENDED FROM NEAR GZH TO SE OF MOB.  LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK MESOLOW ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT S OF
   SEM WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TO S OF TOI TO NEAR
   AAF.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND S OF THIS WARM FRONT IS MOIST
   AND WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   
   LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING
   EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN A NWD MOVEMENT OF
   THIS WARM FRONT WITH AIR MASS DESTABILIZING INTO CNTRL GA THIS
   AFTERNOON.  GIVEN STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /I.E. 50-60 KTS OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/ ACROSS THE FL
   PNHDL...SRN AL AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN
   GA...ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   29948566 32638427 32378138 29708245