Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Luis
is that cam updating?
on my computer, it looks like a new pic and the time is updated.
how is that happening?

Yes is updating as the time changes constantly and the clouds are different with each change.

I reposted the cam as the thread turned to a new page.

[Gustywind]

Wind is blowing lightly but frequently, light showers in vicinity contrasting with the juicy bulk of convection approaching quickly from our east. No doubts this twave is active and should bring numerous showers tonight added to tstorms increasing winds in gust near 40 kts rough sea 3meters expected tonight.
Meteo France has maintained the yellow alert so wet weather conditions through the weekend
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
You can see the screaming eagle like Steeve Lyons says it , tkink he's right, looks like a hawk:darrow:
http://www.weather.com/multimedia/video ... date_video

[Gustywind]

Things seems to heat up, convection does not want to give up and a neighbour from Dominica on the weather site Stormcarib, said: - Rain on the way. http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... nica.shtml
From: Tom Fullbrook <fullbrookt at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 18 Jul 2009 10:09:11 -0400

Good morning to everyone,
Looks like the rain will be with us any minute now. Earlier this morning
it was beautiful. Now the rain clouds have moved in. Sky is very dark. Almost
like it is early evening. Not much in the way of breeze, but I'm sure that will
come at some point. Can see the horizon clearly this morning, so the dust has
moved on. The sea is reflecting the sky, and is a horrible dark shade of grey.
Any of you guys going out fishing today, go with care. It really does not look
nice at all. Quick peek at the sat pic's show most of the islands about to get
a nice drink of water, if you haven't already.
I'm off to have a coffee, watch those clouds rolling in.
You all take care. Have a great day, even if it does get waterlogged. Watch
out for those landslides and bouncy boulders.

[cycloneye]

398
ABNT20 KNHC 181731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/LANDSEA

[expat2carib]

Rain started coming here on Dominica. One can feel something is on the way.

It's not that bad but here in the little fishing village of Scotts Head you can see/feel that the fishermen are getting worried. They don't have that much communication to the outside world . It's their feelings and observations that are making them worried. It must be in their genes.

You said 3 meter waves Gusty? If that's true I better get my boat secured.

It looks like we are going to get 3 waves in all then? The leading wave that is about to take on. The "official 97L" and then one with multiple vorticity right behind it.

MMMM. Should I get worried?

[HUC]

Her,in the leeward south side of the island,overcast but light clouds;no much at this time in tems of rain (20mm since yesterday night ),wind somewhat gusty (30 to 45kh 20 to 23kts ). At the present time,i think that this wave is not rather convectivly active...So W... and S...

[Cosme]

We had a quiet night. Was expecting a light show, but just a few light rain intervals occurred. Today so far has been grey and dry.
Looks like the moisture from this wave will stick around long enough for the second wave to meet with it.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Good afternoon all. My spouse is working on St. Kitts and so I thought I'd join you on this thread due to current and pending wave activity. He's a nature lover, and thankfully pretty savvy about flash floods, lowlands, dry river beds and avoidance. I'm pretty much out of touch with him during the weekends, save phone calls, so welcome reading your comments. Just checked the Caribbean map to refresh which island is which and found St. Kitts. I see Guadeloupe and Dominica are not far east and south, Puerto Rico west.

Thank you Cycloneye for the invitation to follow along here, which I saw on the 97L thread. Lots of wave action right now.

WLD

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon all. My spouse is working on St. Kitts and so I thought I'd join you on this thread due to current and pending wave activity. He's a nature lover, and thankfully pretty savvy about flash floods, lowlands, dry river beds and avoidance. I'm pretty much out of touch with him during the weekends, save phone calls, so welcome reading your comments. Just checked the Caribbean map to refresh which island is which and found St. Kitts. I see Guadeloupe and Dominica are not far east and south, Puerto Rico west.

Thank you Cycloneye for the invitation to follow along here, which I saw on the 97L thread. Lots of wave action right now.

WLD

Glad to see you here as I call this thread our Eastern Caribbean tent.When you can stop by and post anything about what is going on in ST Kitts.

[HUC]

Hey,Gusty,Bulletin of Martinica at 1.30pm,call for a wave near TD stage !!!and they are in orange alert,due to very heavy rain received (113mm in some territories). Things need to be taking carefully...

[HUC]

When you look at the loop,you can see the shear is rather strong nrth of 14,15°N; you can alsoseeing the convection staying east of the Leeward,with the strongests bulks,east of Martinica St Lucia,with some rains affecting these islands.
My barometer is normal,winds SE 20 KTS with gusts recorded at 26kts;no rain.

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/b ... lgp_mq.pdf
Forecast ( in french ) of Martinica this evenning.Always saying ",near TD status"...

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/Radars.ph ... portee=200
Radar of Martinica

[msbee]

can't get on the site. need user name and password?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 PM AST SAT JUL 18 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS CWF/ZFP FOR FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RACING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WEATHER GRIDS WERE APPROPIATE...JUST
UPDATED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS EARLIER THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED WIND GUSTS OVERLAND AND
WATER TO REFLECT WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST VISUAL PICTURES DEPICT LOW LEVEL VORTEX
ASSSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE WELL SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SIGNATURES ON SATELLITE ALSO REFLECT GUSTY NATURE OF
WEATHER BANDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS INITIAL OUTFLOW
BAND THERE SEEMS TO BE A SLOT OF DRIER AIR EAST OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT... PERIODS
OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS...SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL TAF
SITES...AS BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM AST SAT JUL 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THEN AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME...PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH...LIGHTNING AND AT
LEAST SOME MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT "DRIER" CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND PART OF MONDAY...YET STILL
WITH NOCTURNALLY/DIURNALLY INDUCED ACTIVITY...FOLLOWED BY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 46 DEGREES WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT...
PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS...SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30
TO 35 KNOTS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL TAF
SITES...AS BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

MARINE...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AT LEAST
SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

[HUC]

Sorry, i thought that you can see the image without the pass word...Apparently it's impossible...Perhaps Gusty who can used perfectly the forum to send images may send an image of the radar;i will try again. See you later

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/index.php
Perhaps you can see an image??

[cycloneye]

http://www.meteo.gp/index.php
Perhaps you can see an image??

I can see the image.

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/r ... 222500.png

Nowi i thik it's OK?

[msbee]

thanks HUC
that works now