Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain expected for the NE Caribbean in the next 3 days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT...ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS ALL PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THE
MOST IMPORTANT AREA OF SHOWERS STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 100 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AND WEATHER RADAR
SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH...AND
IMPORTANT AREAS OF SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED
YESTERDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THIS WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IS NOT GOING TO END ANYTIME SOON.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS AGREED THAT IS NOT
UNTIL MONDAY NEXT WEEK THAT WE MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO CREATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA STARTING FRIDAY...AND LASTING TO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER...BUT NORMALLY...A NORTHERLY WIND WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VI
FROM 09/08Z-09/14Z...AND ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS FROM
09/16Z-09/20Z...AS SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. LLVL WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO BE SSW AROUND 10
KTS...WITH SEA BREEZE AND TERRAIN INDUCED VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 LOCATED NEAR 200 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...IS SHOWING 11 FEET SWELL AT 11 SECONDS. THIS SWELLS WILL
GENERATED LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET OT LARGER ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS AND
REEFS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES...THROUGH AT LEAST 8
AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT
THROUGH WED MORNING. REFER TO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING PRODUCT FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH A NEW ANNUAL RAINFALL RECORD NOW ESTABLISHED FOR THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN WITH 78.80 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATING THUS FAR IN 2010...INTERESTED PARTIES CAN
NOW TRACK THE LATEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN REGARDS TO THE ALL TIME
RECORD FOR PRECIPITATION IN SAN JUAN AREA METRO AREA OF 87.55 INCHES
BY VISITING THE OFFICIAL NWS WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Looks like a twave is continuing to show up nicely within the ITCZ...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EDT TUE NOV 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N46W 11N47W 6N48W...MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWED UP REALLY WELL IN THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY ON 08/1815 UTC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[msbee]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

too much rain!
stay dry, Luis!

[Macrocane]

The temperatures registered this morning were the lowest since the cool event began I will post them tomorrow. The winds have calmed down and at this moment it doesn't feel as cool as the previous days. These are yesterday observations in El Salvador.

Temperatures
Acajutla min: 21.1°C (70°F) max: 30.2°C (86.4°F)
Santa Ana min: 15.4°C (59.7°F) max: 26.7°C(80.1°F)
San Salvador min: 14.6°C (58.3°F) max: 27.1°C (80.8°F)
Las Pilas min: 5.6°C (42.1°F) max: 16.7°C (62.1°F)
El Pacayal min: 12.5°C (54.5°F) max: 23.6°C (74.5°F)
San Miguel min: 18.6°C (65.5°F) max: 32.8°C (91.0°F)

Max Wind Gust in some locations
Ishuatán 43.7 km/h (27.3 mph)
El Pacayal 33.9 km/h (21.2 mph)
San Salvador 32.0 km/h (20.0 mph)
San Miguel 20.7 km/h (13.0 mph)

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

PRC015-035-057-069-085-095-103-109-129-147-151-091930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0550.101109T1839Z-101109T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAYEY PR-SAN LORENZO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-ARROYO PR-PATILLAS PR-
MAUNABO PR-NAGUABO PR-GUAYAMA PR-HUMACAO PR-YABUCOA PR-VIEQUES PR-
239 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAYEY...SAN LORENZO...LAS PIEDRAS...ARROYO...PATILLAS...
MAUNABO...NAGUABO...GUAYAMA...HUMACAO...YABUCOA AND VIEQUES

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 236 PM AST...HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED MOVING FROM THE NEAR
SHORE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS INTO THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1805 6619 1820 6586 1817 6528 1813 6524
1804 6545 1804 6556 1818 6567 1796 6584
1791 6603 1791 6611

$$

TIRADO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-101030-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-101111T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
228 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* THROUGH LATE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING

* A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DUE
TO SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL PROLONGED PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

* AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO... INCLUDING CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ALL OF THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS... ARE AT GREATEST RISK FOR EXPERIENCING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO
FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
ONGOING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOOD EVENT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE A MID LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES JUST TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONT EXTENDS INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH SOUTH WEST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND RETURN ON FRIDAY. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT IT WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME CONVECTIVE TOPS EXCEEDING 50
THOUSAND FEET ARE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST
PUERTO RICO. RAIN HAS ALSO MOVED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO AND IS APPROACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF THIS PASSAGE...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS...AT LEAST...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GENERALLY WET
SITUATION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BANDS THAT MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD KEEP THE NORTHERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WET
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED MORE BY THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VI... TJSJ...TJMZ AND
TJPS FROM 09/21Z-10/06Z...AS SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER A NEW
TRAIN OF ELEVATED SEAS FROM A LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES. SEAS MAY REACH 12 FEET WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 15
FEET OR HIGHER.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

PRC021-029-031-033-061-087-119-127-137-139-092245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0551.101109T1945Z-101109T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-TOA BAJA PR-
345 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO GRANDE AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

* AT 343 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
GENERALLY NORTHWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN JUST 30
MINUTES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6620 1846 6582 1831 6583 1835 6622

$$

ROSA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Flood Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

PRC007-021-025-061-127-092300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0552.101109T2004Z-101109T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
404 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...AGUAS BUENAS...GUAYNABO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 403 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAGUAS AREA MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ONE TO TWO INCHES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.


MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1816 6610 1836 6619 1835 6603 1821 6599
1812 6606

$$

ROSA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

This is what the NE Caribbean will get in the next couple of days.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC127-092330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0138.101109T2137Z-101109T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 530 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED
SHARP RISES ON THE RIO PIEDRAS. LATEST READING INDICATED THE RIVER
WAS AT 14.21 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY AND FLOOD STAGE IS 15 FEET. AT
15 FEET...KENNEDY...BARBOSA...MUNOZ RIVERA...ROOSEVELT AS WELL AS
NOTRE DAME IN UNIVERSITY GARDENS FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1840 6608 1846 6611 1847 6605 1836 6604
1835 6608

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

PRC021-029-031-033-061-087-119-127-137-139-092245-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FA.Y.0551.000000T0000Z-101109T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-TOA BAJA PR-
602 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM AST FOR THE
FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO GRANDE AND TOA BAJA

WHILE RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS
OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...RIVERS...AND POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING
AREAS.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6620 1846 6582 1831 6583 1835 6622

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
924 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-100930-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-101111T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
924 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* ALL OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AND ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC PUSHES THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PUERTO
RICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF
THIS FRONT AND THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS COULD MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS
AND PRODUCE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.


* THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
ONGOING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOOD EVENT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

ROSA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2010

.UPDATE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER LAND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND A LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE
VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST THIS
EVENING AS IT REMAINS IN LINE WITH LATEST THINKING. HOWEVER...FOR
THE MARINE GRIDS...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES USING THE LATEST MARINE
GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBLE IMPACT OF LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is foecast for today and tommorow.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST WED NOV 10 2010

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-102145-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-101111T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
533 AM AST WED NOV 10 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND ALL OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THROUGH 200 AM AST THURSDAY MORNING.

* A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEARLY
STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS FRONT AND THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...WHILE TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.

* THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR GREATLY
DEPENDS ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND ABOVE
NORMAL RIVER LEVELS...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING...ALONG WITH
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
ONGOING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOOD EVENT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

BCS/SR
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
631 AM AST WED NOV 10 2010

VIC020-030-101315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0555.101110T1031Z-101110T1315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
631 AM AST WED NOV 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 915 AM AST

* AT 626 AM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ST THOMAS AND
ABOUT TO MOVE VER ST JOHN. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ONE-HALF TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF ST THOMAS...AND IT
CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1 INCH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 915 AM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF GUTS AND STREAMS...ROADS AND
ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6470 1830 6509 1843 6510 1840 6500
1845 6488 1840 6484 1840 6467 1836 6463
1831 6463

$$

BCS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
650 AM AST WED NOV 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL
MORE DAYS OF GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BEFORE DRY AIR
BEGINS TO INTRUDE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS
THE CURRENT PESKY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EVENTUALLY
BREAKS APART AS IT GETS FORCED SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW LONG THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WEATHER...WITH LATEST GFS STILL
HANGING ONTO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO
WANE BY FRIDAY AT THE LATEST...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSSIBLY
IN NEED OF AN EXTENSION INTO THURSDAY WHEN IT IS REFRESHED LATER
TODAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...SEVERAL DAYS OF RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED TO EXTENDED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN THIRD
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST 10/14Z AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. AFT 10/14Z...EXPECT ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS ALL PR TAF SITES BY 10/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL STORM TOMAS
CONTINUE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPECTED TO GENERATE ANOTHER BATCH OF LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS...FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1.27 INCHES OF RAINFALL AT THE LUIS
MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN YESTERDAY...A TOTAL
OF 80.07 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED THUS FAR IN 2010. SEE
THE LATEST PNS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS YEARS RAINFALL
TOTALS OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/SJU TO SEE LATEST NEWS STORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 85 74 / 90 20 60 50
STT 86 76 85 76 / 60 20 40 50