FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1200 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
PRC013-017-021-027-033-051-061-065-081-091-127-135-137-143-145-
111800-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0565.101111T1600Z-101111T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-LARES PR-DORADO PR-BARCELONETA
PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI PR-CATANO PR-VEGA BAJA
PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
1200 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS RE-ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...LARES...DORADO...BARCELONETA...
GUAYNABO...CAMUY...HATILLO...MANATI...CATANO...VEGA BAJA...SAN
JUAN...TOA BAJA AND ARECIBO
* UNTIL 200 PM AST
* AT 1155 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. SOME OF THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS MEANS THAT SOME ROADS WILL HAVE PONDED WATER
AND SOME STREAMS WILL BE BANKFULL OR OVER. THIS ADVISORY REPLACES
ALL OTHER URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ARE NO LONGER AT RISK FOR FURTHER FLOODING FOR THE TIME
BEING AND THE ADVISORIES THERE HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO IN THE EAST AND WEST CORNERS
HAVE BECOME LIGHT OR MOVED OFFSHORE.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1829 6620 1837 6619 1839 6655 1834 6685
1854 6682 1847 6607 1837 6607
$$
SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1228 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
.UPDATE...FIRST FEW FRAMES OF NEW 12Z MODEL HAVE ARRIVED AND
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRYING LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY ON
MONDAY. THE THREAT OF FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH EACH DAY AS THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND AREAS DECREASES AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DIMINISH. THEREFORE THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY 8 AM AST...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IT WILL NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OFFSHORE FROM PUERTO RICO OVER
THE ATLANTIC AGAIN AND IT IS CLEAR THAT AIR MOVING FROM THE NORTH
IS MEETING RESISTANCE JUST NORTH OF THE BEACHES. THIS RAIN MAY
COME IN AGAIN AND SO CHANCES OF RAIN ON THE NORTH COASTAL PLAINS
REMAINS HIGH. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER MUNICIPALITIES AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GROW SOME. MORE COMPLETE
ANALYSIS WILL COME OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IN A FEW HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDS HAVE BECOME VFR ALMOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER
TJMZ AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF PUERTO RICO. CONDS MAY DETERIORATE
OVER THE NORTH COAST BETWEEN 11/16 AND 11/22Z IN SHWRS AND LOWER
CIGS AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1228 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
.UPDATE...FIRST FEW FRAMES OF NEW 12Z MODEL HAVE ARRIVED AND
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRYING LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY ON
MONDAY. THE THREAT OF FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH EACH DAY AS THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND AREAS DECREASES AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DIMINISH. THEREFORE THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY 8 AM AST...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IT WILL NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OFFSHORE FROM PUERTO RICO OVER
THE ATLANTIC AGAIN AND IT IS CLEAR THAT AIR MOVING FROM THE NORTH
IS MEETING RESISTANCE JUST NORTH OF THE BEACHES. THIS RAIN MAY
COME IN AGAIN AND SO CHANCES OF RAIN ON THE NORTH COASTAL PLAINS
REMAINS HIGH. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER MUNICIPALITIES AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GROW SOME. MORE COMPLETE
ANALYSIS WILL COME OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IN A FEW HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDS HAVE BECOME VFR ALMOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER
TJMZ AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF PUERTO RICO. CONDS MAY DETERIORATE
OVER THE NORTH COAST BETWEEN 11/16 AND 11/22Z IN SHWRS AND LOWER
CIGS AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
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hi everyone, well its starting to warm up a little bit today looks like cold front starting to pull out though winds still NE for next few days, I'm seeing on Masters blog about a possible disturbance forming in next 3-5 days near columbia what have u model watchers seen?, and more to the point what effect could it have on central america and for me in Belize. thxs
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
151 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
VIC010-111945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0566.101111T1751Z-101111T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
151 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX
* UNTIL 345 PM AST
* AT 151 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1769 6460 1763 6490 1781 6490 1780 6455
1773 6455
$$
SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
151 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
VIC010-111945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0566.101111T1751Z-101111T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
151 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX
* UNTIL 345 PM AST
* AT 151 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1769 6460 1763 6490 1781 6490 1780 6455
1773 6455
$$
SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Flash Flood Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
VIC010-112015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0142.101111T1815Z-101111T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING ISLAND
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX
* UNTIL 415 PM AST
* AT 210 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA THAT MAY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
ONE MORE HOUR IN SOME PLACES. THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM
YESTERDAY`S FLOODS AND THE WATER WILL RISE VERY QUICKLY.
DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
LAT...LON 1763 6473 1763 6484 1768 6494 1776 6494
1783 6481 1778 6455 1772 6456
$$
SNELL
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
VIC010-112015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0142.101111T1815Z-101111T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING ISLAND
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX
* UNTIL 415 PM AST
* AT 210 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA THAT MAY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
ONE MORE HOUR IN SOME PLACES. THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM
YESTERDAY`S FLOODS AND THE WATER WILL RISE VERY QUICKLY.
DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
LAT...LON 1763 6473 1763 6484 1768 6494 1776 6494
1783 6481 1778 6455 1772 6456
$$
SNELL
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145366
- Age: 68
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT...WHILE WEAKENING...INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY. AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AND A SURFACE
TROUGH...NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...DIURNAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS REACHES THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT LIGHT AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO EACH MORNING...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THROUGH 12/14Z...EXCEPT THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO INCLUDING TJMZ...AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... INCLUDING
TJMZ...TIST AND TISX THROUGH 12/15Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS EAST OF PUERTO
RICO. SHWRS MAY DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AFT 12/16Z.
&&
.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS LARGE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...BEGIN TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT...WHILE WEAKENING...INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY. AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AND A SURFACE
TROUGH...NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...DIURNAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS REACHES THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT LIGHT AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO EACH MORNING...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THROUGH 12/14Z...EXCEPT THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO INCLUDING TJMZ...AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... INCLUDING
TJMZ...TIST AND TISX THROUGH 12/15Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS EAST OF PUERTO
RICO. SHWRS MAY DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AFT 12/16Z.
&&
.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS LARGE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...BEGIN TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.
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cycloneye
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Re:
BZSTORM wrote:hi everyone, well its starting to warm up a little bit today looks like cold front starting to pull out though winds still NE for next few days, I'm seeing on Masters blog about a possible disturbance forming in next 3-5 days near columbia what have u model watchers seen?, and more to the point what effect could it have on central america and for me in Belize. thxs
There are a few models that develop a system in the SW Caribbean,but are not very strong,only a TD or a weak TS.The members are discussing about the possible development at the thread at Talking Tropics. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109923&start=0 Is early to say if it goes to Belize but stay tuned in the next few days to see first if it develops and second,where it may go.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
The flood watch was modified to exclude western Puerto Rico.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
PRZ001-002-004>006-012-013-VIZ001-002-120915-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-101112T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...
DORADO...COAMO...COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...CULEBRA...
ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
509 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY AND VIEQUES. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
* MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THAT SHOULD LIMIT
THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS THE INTENSITY OF THE
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...DEEPENING NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY...SOILS REMAIN VERY MOIST ACROSS THE
REGION AND ONLY LITTLE AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE NEEDED TO TRIGGER
FLOODING. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS.
* IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
ONGOING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOOD EVENT.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
PRZ001-002-004>006-012-013-VIZ001-002-120915-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-101112T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...
DORADO...COAMO...COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...CULEBRA...
ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
509 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY AND VIEQUES. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
* MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THAT SHOULD LIMIT
THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS THE INTENSITY OF THE
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...DEEPENING NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY...SOILS REMAIN VERY MOIST ACROSS THE
REGION AND ONLY LITTLE AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE NEEDED TO TRIGGER
FLOODING. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS.
* IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
ONGOING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOOD EVENT.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Barbara,how did the day went there?
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
hi Luis
everything was fine here.
we got no rain at all from that system. it was just cloudy.
we have had some pretty rough surf on the western part of the island
it looked like this afternoon before sunset that it was starting to clear up.
are you guys OK in PR?
everything was fine here.
we got no rain at all from that system. it was just cloudy.
we have had some pretty rough surf on the western part of the island
it looked like this afternoon before sunset that it was starting to clear up.
are you guys OK in PR?
Last edited by msbee on Thu Nov 11, 2010 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Too many hurricanes to remember
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
cycloneye wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010...
MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS LARGE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...BEGIN TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.
Yep, we’re expecting high seas here as well, starting on Saturday and continuing through Monday. Folks have been warned to stay away from northern, eastern and western shores of the island during that period. Looks like a pretty large and intense low pressure system that’s generating those swells.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Hey guys I've just updated the Central America Cold Surges thread with the observations of the last cold surge, there are lots of observations as it affected Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica for several days, here's the link: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2096085#p2096085
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Macrocane wrote:Hey guys I've just updated the Central America Cold Surges thread with the observations of the last cold surge, there are lots of observations as it affected Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica for several days, here's the link: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2096085#p2096085
that's chilly!
More and more weather extremes ..too hot..too cold..too wet..too dry..
can you say global warming ??
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
are you guys OK in PR?
Rain is going away slowly from the island, after a few days of some flooding.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
932 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
PRC051-143-145-120430-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0567.101112T0132Z-101112T0430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
932 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA...DORADO AND VEGA BAJA
* UNTIL 1230 AM AST
* AT 932 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL
AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1841 6644 1847 6643 1848 6642 1848 6626
1839 6626 1838 6644
$$
ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
932 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
PRC051-143-145-120430-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0567.101112T0132Z-101112T0430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
932 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA...DORADO AND VEGA BAJA
* UNTIL 1230 AM AST
* AT 932 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL
AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1841 6644 1847 6643 1848 6642 1848 6626
1839 6626 1838 6644
$$
ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
VIC010-120445-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0568.101112T0146Z-101112T0445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
946 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX
* UNTIL 1245 AM AST
* AT 943 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON
GUSTS AND FLOODING ACROSS ST. CROIX. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1770 6456 1767 6491 1777 6491 1779 6455
$$
ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
VIC010-120445-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0568.101112T0146Z-101112T0445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
946 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX
* UNTIL 1245 AM AST
* AT 943 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON
GUSTS AND FLOODING ACROSS ST. CROIX. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1770 6456 1767 6491 1777 6491 1779 6455
$$
ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
PRC021-031-033-061-127-135-137-139-120530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0569.101112T0234Z-101112T0530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1034 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 130 AM AST
* AT 1029 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS BLOSSOMING OVER
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALONG RIVER GAGES
INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL RAIN RATES OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR OR UP TO INCH AND HALF IN THREE HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOTION OF THESE SHOWERS...FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS APPEARS LIKELY.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1833 6622 1834 6629 1850 6625 1847 6598
1842 6593 1829 6590 1830 6608 1828 6611
1828 6619
$$
ROSA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
PRC021-031-033-061-127-135-137-139-120530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0569.101112T0234Z-101112T0530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1034 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 130 AM AST
* AT 1029 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS BLOSSOMING OVER
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALONG RIVER GAGES
INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL RAIN RATES OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR OR UP TO INCH AND HALF IN THREE HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOTION OF THESE SHOWERS...FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS APPEARS LIKELY.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1833 6622 1834 6629 1850 6625 1847 6598
1842 6593 1829 6590 1830 6608 1828 6611
1828 6619
$$
ROSA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Good morning.The main concern for marine interests and beachgoers will be the very high swells this weekend.
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST FRI NOV 12 2010
...INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTHERLY
SWELLS BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...
PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-122000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0016.101112T1400Z-101115T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
334 AM AST FRI NOV 12 2010
...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM AST MONDAY...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTHERLY SWELLS...GENERATED FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL BEGIN TO
INVADE THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.
BUOY OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS INDICATE THAT
THESE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL GENERATE BORDER LINE HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...WITH BREAKING WAVES NEAR
10 FEET ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS
OF THE ADVISED ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN VERY HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET EXPECTED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...PEAKING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND
DANGEROUS CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS.
THESE NARROW OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS
AWAY FROM THE COAST LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A
RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR
BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH.
YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE
ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.
LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.
THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:
SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.7 FEET AT 2:04 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
1.1 FEET AT 1:53 AM SATURDAY MORNING
ENSENADA HONDA CULEBRA: 1.1 FEET AT 1:30 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
0.7 FEET AT 1:19 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.4 FEET AT 2:23 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
1.4 FEET AT 2:55 PM AST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
&&
$$
SR/BCS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST FRI NOV 12 2010
...INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTHERLY
SWELLS BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...
PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-122000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0016.101112T1400Z-101115T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
334 AM AST FRI NOV 12 2010
...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM AST MONDAY...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTHERLY SWELLS...GENERATED FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL BEGIN TO
INVADE THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.
BUOY OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS INDICATE THAT
THESE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL GENERATE BORDER LINE HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...WITH BREAKING WAVES NEAR
10 FEET ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS
OF THE ADVISED ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN VERY HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET EXPECTED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...PEAKING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND
DANGEROUS CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS.
THESE NARROW OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS
AWAY FROM THE COAST LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A
RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR
BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH.
YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE
ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.
LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.
THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:
SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.7 FEET AT 2:04 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
1.1 FEET AT 1:53 AM SATURDAY MORNING
ENSENADA HONDA CULEBRA: 1.1 FEET AT 1:30 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
0.7 FEET AT 1:19 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.4 FEET AT 2:23 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
1.4 FEET AT 2:55 PM AST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
&&
$$
SR/BCS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 AM AST FRI NOV 12 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF ST CROIX LATER
TODAY AND THEN STALL THERE OVER THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND LIFTING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH THE BASE OF THE WESTERLIES CONTINUING ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN USVI AND ST CROIX AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
PAST ST CROIX TODAY AND THEN GENERALLY STALL THERE DURING THE
WEEKEND. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS ONE OR TWO SECONDARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES PASS ACROSS
THE FA...BUT THIS DRYING PROCESS WILL NOT BE RAPID. SO...FOR TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER
WEATHER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY ONWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...A
MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA...
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
BASED ON OBSERVED BUOY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AND FORECAST
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COAST LINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BEGINNING AT 10 AM AST THIS MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH 8 AM AST MONDAY MORNING. ALREADY HAVE SEEN LONG PERIOD...
NORTH SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET AT 12 SECONDS AT THE ATLANTIC BUOY
41043 TO OUR NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BORDERLINE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES LATER TODAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF AND SLIGHT DECREASE
IN THESE SWELLS LATER TODAY...BEFORE THE REAL SWELL EVENT BEGINS
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...AS LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH
SWELLS INVADE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SURF CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BECOME VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS WITH FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED
PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR TISX EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY DATA EARLY THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN LONG PERIOD...NORTH SWELLS SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE A BRIEF AND SLIGHT DECREASE IN THESE SWELLS
LATER TODAY...BEFORE SEAS BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...AS LARGE...
LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS...CREATING VERY
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU
AND SJUMWWSJU FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED MARINE
CONDITIONS AND ADVISORY HEADLINES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 81 73 / 10 20 20 20
STT 86 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 20
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