Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

I thought it was clearing up yesterday afternoon. We woke up this morning to very gray cloudy skies.
Help! I need some sunshine to heat my hot water!
When in the world will this weather depart the area?

[bvigal]

Yeah, sunshine! Barbara, it's headed your direction!
My neighbor downstairs repaired the burnt phone lines coming into the building and got his internet back! Unfortunately, my line must be also broken elsewhere, still dead. But this morning he plugged in my wireless router, so I'm back the internet. We had more flooding Wed and yesterday, the routine is getting OLD! Hopefully we can dry out a bit and are headed into beautiful winter weather!

[msbee]

hey bvigal
glad you are back on the net somehow
you guys really got a lot more rain that you didn't need.
we haven't had any rain thankfully, so I shouldn't complain
I think you are right though... the sun might be heading our way.
It's trying to break through now.
Have a good weekend.

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM, 94L is up in the SW Caribbean. Lets see what occurs in the next few days,but hopefully it is not another one that goes to Belize.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI NOV 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOUTH OF ST
CROIX OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT...
WHILE WEAKENING...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED OVER LAND
AREAS. DENSE CLOUD COVER PROBABLY DELAYED THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
...HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET...
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS MIMIC TPW PRODUCT INDICATED A DRYING
TREND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...DIURNAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE BEST
CHANCES OF WEATHER ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THEN...AN OVERALL
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS REACHES THE LOCAL
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LIGHT AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO EACH MORNING
WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT TIST AFT 12/22Z
IN LOWER CIGS AND SHWRS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. SOME
LOCAL MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 13/22Z. LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN
THE PRESENCE OF CONVERGENCE BANDS BEHIND THE FRONT...NOW SOUTH OF
PR/USVI.


&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS LARGE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS
...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...BEGIN TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME...A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 74 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 AM Monday

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST FRI NOV 12 2010

...INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LARGE...LONG
PERIOD...NORTHERLY SWELLS BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-130600-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-101115T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
342 PM AST FRI NOV 12 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST MONDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST MONDAY.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS INDICATE THAT
THESE NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE GENERATING BORDER LINE HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS...WITH BREAKING WAVES NEAR 10 FEET ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS OF THE ADVISED ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN VERY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... WITH LARGE BREAKING
WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...PEAKING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND
DANGEROUS CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE
NARROW OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY
FROM THE COAST LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR
BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE
TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES
SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO
THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF
OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.1 FEET AT 1:53 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING
1.6 FEET AT 2:47 PM AST SATURDAY AFTERNOON

ENSENADA HONDA CULEBRA: 0.7 FEET AT 1:19 PM AST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
1.0 FEET AT 2:13 PM AST SATURDAY AFTERNOON

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.4 FEET AT 2:55 PM AST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
0.6 FEET AT 4:39 AM AST SUNDAY MORNING

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$


FC/ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Getting more and more closer to the all time record of rainfall in San Juan,Puerto Rico.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju//?n=rainfall2010

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Big swells still are comming so dont venture in the beaches close to the water as rip corrents are strong.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST SAT NOV 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND LIFTING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE BASE OF THE WESTERLIES CONTINUING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INFILTRATE THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY...AS ONE OR
TWO SECONDARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES PASS ACROSS OR NEAR THE FA.
FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRIER...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
AND POSSIBLY OVER ST CROIX TODAY...AS BAND OF DEEPER RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THIS AREA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX OVERHEAD. GIVEN AMAZING RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER ST CROIX THIS WEEK...WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS IN
THIS AREA TO BE SURE ACTIVE WEATHER DOES NOT SINK ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY ONWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
FA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE BANDS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH SURF AND COASTAL CONDITIONS.

...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELL EVENT IS COMMENCING AND ALL
LOCAL MARINE AND BEACH ENTHUSIASTS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

BASED ON OBSERVED BUOY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AND FORECAST
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE SAME AREAS AS BEFORE.
LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL BUILD QUICKLY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TODAY...PEAKING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AND INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS
AND SURFERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. OF NOTE...GIVEN EXPECTED BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20
FEET OR HIGHER AND RESULTANT SURF...THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A HIGH SURF WARNING LATER ON.

AFTER GREAT DELIBERATION...BASED ON EXPECTED SWELL HEIGHTS AND
PERIODS...SLOWLY DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...ONLY WEAK ONSHORE
SURFACE WIND FLOW AND PAST EVENTS...WE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...AS FEEL ANY PROBLEMS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY MINOR IN NATURE AND IN THE MOST VULNERABLE NORTH COASTAL
AREAS...AND WOULD ACTUALLY BE BEST SERVED BY A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY...WHICH WE DO NOT NORMALLY ISSUE LOCALLY. IF SWELLS END
UP BEING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN NOW EXPECTED...THEN MIGHT NEED
A SHORT FUSE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS
HAPPENING AT THIS MOMENT. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FOR MARINERS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THESE LARGE...LONG PERIOD
NORTH SWELLS WILL BUILD QUICKLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY...PEAKING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR OTHER AREAS LATER
TODAY OR THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU AND SJUMWWSJU
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED MARINE CONDITIONS AND
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
13/16Z...WITH A VCSH POSSIBLE NEAR TISX. AFT 13/16Z...EXPECT SHRA
AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS
FROM 13/17Z-13/22Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN
PREVAILING LLVL WIND N WIND FLOW NEAR 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 73 / 20 20 20 10
STT 85 73 85 75 / 20 20 20 10

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Here is a link by the coast guard courtesy from Mj as she posted it at the 94L thread It has tips about how to protect from these big swells and rip currents.

http://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/586/950007/

[cycloneye]

Off topic=There was a 5.6 quake that occured early this morning in the Mona passage.More information at the Eastern Caribbean seismic activity thread. viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2096258#p2096258

[chrisjslucia]

Just as a foot note to Tomas, and for the statisticians amongst us this is the rainfall data from the St Lucia Met Office:

The 24 hour rainfall recorded on the 30th October 2010 was 593.1 mm at Hewanorra and 533.3 mm at GFL Charles

Since then, virtually no rain and half the country is happy as it cannot cope with further land slides and flooding and half is unhappy as there is no water and we need rainwater. Any chance of a few showers perhaps?

[cycloneye]

Just as a foot note to Tomas, and for the statisticians amongst us this is the rainfall data from the St Lucia Met Office:

The 24 hour rainfall recorded on the 30th October 2010 was 593.1 mm at Hewanorra and 533.3 mm at GFL Charles

Since then, virtually no rain and half the country is happy as it cannot cope with further land slides and flooding and half is unhappy as there is no water and we need rainwater. Any chance of a few showers perhaps?

That is a lot of rain in a short period of time. I only see chances of showers for that island being caused by weak frontal boundaries that may zag southward or by perturbations in the easterlies that may come from the east.But for now,the frontal line is well NW of you and weak waves are moving well south of you.

[BZSTORM]

Just seen this on BBC News -Surfing with 50ft waves this week in Ireland - gale force winds 6-8 think it could be from remnants of Tomas??? the last model tracks looked like it would take Tomas to Ireland (UK)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11728584

[cycloneye]

Just seen this on BBC News -Surfing with 50ft waves this week in Ireland - gale force winds 6-8 think it could be from remnants of Tomas??? the last model tracks looked like it would take Tomas to Ireland (UK)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11728584

The big surf is not from ex Tomas,but from a strong extratropical low that is located near Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

Coastal Flood Watch in effect for northern coasts of Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1207 PM AST SAT NOV 13 2010

...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-140000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.CF.A.0002.101113T1607Z-101114T2000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-101115T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1207 PM AST SAT NOV 13 2010

...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM RINCON
NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH FAJARDO...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST FACING COASTS OF CULEBRA...ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION
WILL BE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.6 FEET AT 2:47 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
1.1 FEET AT 3:01 AM AST SUNDAY MORNING

ENSENADA HONDA CULEBRA: 1.0 FEET AT 2:13 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
0.7 FEET AT 2:27 AM AST SUNDAY MORNING

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.4 FEET AT 2:55 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
0.6 FEET AT 4:39 AM AST SUNDAY MORNING

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW LYING
AREAS...AND BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE COASTAL FLOODING
OCCURS OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. KEEP TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD
MAKE IMPORTANT PRELIMINARY PLANS TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IMMEDIATELY AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

FIGUEROA/SANCHEZ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Macrocane, you may have to watch 94L because if it moves west into Nicaragua/Costa Rica,then where you are may get a big rain event.

[cycloneye]

Click on the various cams at link below and see how the surf is.

http://www.comoestaeso.com/forums/conte ... rf-cam-25/

Playa la ocho cam

[Macrocane]

Macrocane, you may have to watch 94L because if it moves west into Nicaragua/Costa Rica,then where you are may get a big rain event.

Thanks cycloneye, I will be watching. According to the 12z GFS the heaviest rains will occur on Thursday and Friday, it will be a rather complex event because the rains will be produced by the interaction of 94L and a cold front and it will be a rare occurence as we're now in the dry season.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST SAT NOV 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND LIFTING OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUE
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED THE REMNANTS OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN THERE THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRIER AND STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRIER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EACH DAY. IN FACT THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT
VALUES WELL BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK...A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE FA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE
BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND
PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH DEEP AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST AS THEY GROW IN DEPTH. CORDILLERA AND VI
SITES TO SEE THE MOST CONVECTION BUT CELLS WILL BE FEWER THAN THEY
WERE THE PAST WEEK. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT EVEN THAT TO BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS...AND ALL LOCAL MARINE
AND BEACH ENTHUSIASTS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN
PLACE FOR THE SAME AREAS AS BEFORE. LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD QUICKLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...PEAKING LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS AND SURFERS
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME. OF
NOTE...GIVEN EXPECTED BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER AND
RESULTANT SURF...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXPOSED NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA AND FOR THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.