Texas Summer 2017

[Ntxw]

Come on good juju

[Brent]

This summer has really been interesting everytime it starts to look like a true summer pattern we get unsettled again and this is the peak of the summer now. Soon its all downhill from here

And next weekend is going the same way with the heat ridge being overdone

[bubba hotep]

Come on rain

Doing my part to get the rain down here by drinking some extra beer!

[bubba hotep]

Cells firing behind the outflow and filling in with the main glob. This might get some decent rains down to DFW, fingers crossed.

[bubba hotep]

Here comes the outflow

[Brent]

Just walked outside to a beautiful wind, it actually feels sort of not awful out

[bubba hotep]

Close your eyes and it almost feels like an early fall cold front pushing through lol

Only problem, everything is pretty chaotic behind the outflow, but it looks like DFW might at least pick up some rain.

[Brent]

Rain in Wylie!!!!

So hard it knocked the satellite out '

Just had a pretty vivid lightning flash too

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/889326588583710720

[Brent]

Line looks to be bulking up as it moves into Dallas. Definitely not falling apart yet.

This is as good as the other storms we've had this summer. The summer of storms lol

[bubba hotep]

Getting hammered here IMBY

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What model is steve looking at?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Checked the gauge before getting ready for bed. Picked up right around 2" with it still raining. God bless.

[Ntxw]

Its official, raining now at DFW airport after near 40mph wind gusts.

[Ntxw]

What model is steve looking at?

I'm guessing his statistical method that is often derived from various guidance, in this case perhaps many runs of cfsv2, NMME and other climate models etc. Maybe some analogs thrown in.

[Brent]

What model is steve looking at?

I'm guessing his statistical method that is often derived from various guidance, in this case perhaps many runs of cfsv2, NMME and other climate models etc. Maybe some analogs thrown in.

Whatever it is he says it also predicted the wet summer so that gives it more credence... perhaps there's a correlation between wet summers and big December cold???

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What model is steve looking at?

I'm guessing his statistical method that is often derived from various guidance, in this case perhaps many runs of cfsv2, NMME and other climate models etc. Maybe some analogs thrown in.

Whatever it is he says it also predicted the wet summer so that gives it more credence... perhaps there's a correlation between wet summers and big December cold???

There may be something i dont know about, but i never buy into the myths that compare summers and winters entirely. While i agree some analogs do show a potential for cold if this, that and this happen, not sure how it correlates with our summer. If there is something that shows how they can be correlated, id love to hear about it.

Warm NE Pacific and mokdiki elnino would be a great combo though. A cool 1+2, we have come to realize, is very important for us here in texas. Keep heights lower over our region. Would love a favorable MJO this winter as well!

BTW, anyone notice the GFS was showing three different instances where storms had a fujiwhara effect with them over the next ten days in the pacific? Thats wild.

[Ntxw]

The Pacific basins on fire right now. So many systems that the GFS fujiwhara several due to proximity. Hilary in the EPAC and Noru in the WPAC will be the intense ones.

[TheProfessor]

I've been getting steady/heavy rain for a while now. I love the sound of thunder.

[Brent]

I'm guessing his statistical method that is often derived from various guidance, in this case perhaps many runs of cfsv2, NMME and other climate models etc. Maybe some analogs thrown in.

Whatever it is he says it also predicted the wet summer so that gives it more credence... perhaps there's a correlation between wet summers and big December cold???

There may be something i dont know about, but i never buy into the myths that compare summers and winters entirely. While i agree some analogs do show a potential for cold if this, that and this happen, not sure how it correlates with our summer. If there is something that shows how they can be correlated, id love to hear about it.

Warm NE Pacific and mokdiki elnino would be a great combo though. A cool 1+2, we have come to realize, is very important for us here in texas. Keep heights lower over our region. Would love a favorable MJO this winter as well!

BTW, anyone notice the GFS was showing three different instances where storms had a fujiwhara effect with them over the next ten days in the pacific? Thats wild.

oh believe me, as much as I want to believe a cold winter, I'm very much in believe it when I see it mode after the last couple of years(was also my first reaction when someone tipped me off he posted it), but I don't think Steve of all people(especially with his sensitive to the cold palm trees) would throw that out there without some pretty solid evidence so I'm also curious as to what exactly it is...

In other news, DFW has 0.71" of rain so far just padding the summer and July numbers at this point... and still a big rain shield parked overhead.