Texas Spring 2020

[HockeyTx82]

The HRRR model is quite interesting for north Texas tomorrow.

What are you seeing?

[Brent]

The HRRR model is quite interesting for north Texas tomorrow.

What are you seeing?

Flooding rains if it's right a lot of training

NAM is pretty similar

[EnnisTx]

The HRRR model is quite interesting for north Texas tomorrow.

What are you seeing?

Flooding rains if it's right a lot of training

NAM is pretty similar

Sure is, could be an interesting day if it pans out!

[Cpv17]

While 10-15 inches of rain may not cause flooding in your area, in urban areas such as Houston 10-15 inches can be devastating in the area.

Was I saying for it to happen in your area? No. Houston floods from 3”.

Regardless of the area you were referring to it is childish and silly to want 10-15" of rain ANYWHERE!

I’m childish and silly then cuz over a one or two week span I would be thrilled out of my shoes to get that kind of rain lol I am the way I am. I can’t help it.

[Captmorg70]

The HRRR model is quite interesting for north Texas tomorrow.

What are you seeing?

The NAM basically said, “ Hey Lake Ray Roberts, you get ALL THE RAIN.”

From the lake and then towards to east and southeast

[HockeyTx82]

The HRRR model is quite interesting for north Texas tomorrow.

What are you seeing?

The NAM basically said, “ Hey Lake Ray Roberts, you get ALL THE RAIN.”

From the lake and then towards to east and southeast

Sounds like my trip to Tyler State Park on Sunday might be a muddy washout.

[weatherdude1108]

Outflow from Houston storms will potentially kill all the instability over Austin and surrounding areas. Be prepared for a let down IMHO. I could be wrong obv

Maybe not! There’s a pretty good storm over the ATX right now!

Yeah sure is. .4” at my place so far. Hoping more tho

Getting a lot of the lightning, thunder, and sprinkles. I think the outflow from Houston and the resultant blowup of storms over Austin disrupted the line a little bit. 'll check gauge in mornng.

[Captmorg70]

What are you seeing?

The NAM basically said, “ Hey Lake Ray Roberts, you get ALL THE RAIN.”

From the lake and then towards to east and southeast

Sounds like my trip to Tyler State Park on Sunday might be a muddy washout.

With the way the models have been doing, it’ll probably be dry

[Brent]

The NAM basically said, “ Hey Lake Ray Roberts, you get ALL THE RAIN.”

From the lake and then towards to east and southeast

Sounds like my trip to Tyler State Park on Sunday might be a muddy washout.

With the way the models have been doing, it’ll probably be dry

Lmao right

It does appear that at least some of that line tonight is gonna make it though with it knocking on Fort Worth that goes against the hi res models

[weatherdude1108]

Torrential rain and gusty winds with lots of lightning now! I see gauge fron window but can't tell. Some pieces of hail mixed in. Maybe penny? Melts fast. Ill check tomorrow.

[Haris]

Squall line has really slowed down over Austin. This is round 2! Approaching 2" in many areas as of 12am!

[EnnisTx]

Torrential rain and gusty winds with lots of lightning now! I see gauge fron window but can't tell. Some pieces of hail mixed in. Maybe penny? Melts fast. Ill check tomorrow.

No joke , it's putting it down here in Arlington.

[Brent]

The line in DFW looks like it hit a brick wall it's crazy you can see the eastern edge moving back west

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a ridiculous forecast bust for DFW by the models. Wide spread multi inch rainfall event shown for over a week and basically just a few brief heavy showers east of 287 lol

ETA: It's not like we were just model hugging on this board, FWD forecast from yesterday vs. reality





ETA 2: Updated forecast vs morning model runs



HRRR

[WacoWx]

Great post^^

[weatherdude1108]

I got 1.8" from last night's storms. O.75" on Tuesday.

Almost 3" since Tuesday. 63 degrees now!

[weatherdude1108]

EWX had an interesting description of a wake low. I had never heard of that. Pretty cool!

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
While the initial line of strong to severe storms has moved out of
the forecast area, a large area of stratiform rain continues over the
eastern half of the CWA. Lightning activity within this shield
continues to be impressive and there are actually some cloud-to-
ground strikes behind the the precip area which seems like a pretty
rare occurrence. In addition, we are also seeing some rapid pressure
falls on the back edge of the rain with northeast winds increasing to
near 35-40 mph. This is indicative of a wake low which sometimes can
form with these system. These two interesting features likely go
together. There are radar returns above 15kft where these dry
lightning bolts are happening, which is expected since you need ice
for lightning production. However, no radar returns on the lowest
radar scans, tells us that all the precip here on the back side is
evaporating before reaching the surface. This is indicative of dry-
air subsidence which is what you need to get a wake-low to form. This
is quite an interesting setup.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[DonWrk]

Been a wild ride watching some of the hi res models change from run to run. Some showing a doozy of a flood, then a few hours later, hardly a drop lol. At least the ground is wet, I'll take it.

[WacoWx]

Looks like Ft Worth may be in for a good amount of rain. The westward progression of those storms is slowing.

[bubba hotep]

Radar starting to fill in over DFW and the 12z hi-res models are all in on a big time rainfall event lol

I'm sure FWD is all like "Arrghhh!" after cutting totals way back.