Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[InfernoFlameCat]

It is a marginal. A broad one at that.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

2 Possible Tornadoes reported in Southern Mississippi today . . .

Gulf Coast magic.

 https://twitter.com/backinblack_wx/status/1377053365574701056



 https://twitter.com/PatrickEllisWx/status/1377038763919040513




Also looks like to be a decent TOR on the ground near Spencer, LA (not pictured in the image above, that was for the earlier Mississippi storm near US-49).

[InfernoFlameCat]

This front that is moving through will really stabilize the air for a long time. It could delay anything big for at least a week, maybe two.

[Iceresistance]

Might be upgraded to Enchanced because the Slight Risk is Broad, the highest Tornado threat is in Southern Alabama

[InfernoFlameCat]

maybe but I don't see how there will be enough diurnal heating to create that instability. Too much CC
Only threats are straight line winds and maybe a weak tornado along the front and some hail. If there was some shear this would be quite a different story.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The one spot that could get enhanced is Alabama so good point Iceresistance. I was only thinking of my region.

[Iceresistance]

Mesoscale Discussion #308

[Iceresistance]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #70

[InfernoFlameCat]

Time to lean back with our hands behind our heads now

[InfernoFlameCat]

Next year we should do a severe storm season poll for tornadoes. Like number of moderate and high risks issued, number of confirmed tornadoes, and number of significant tornadoes(EF2-EF5).

[ElectricStorm]

Watching 4/7 for the next potential severe event. If the system currently shown on the GFS slows down by just a few hours, it could be a problem for the Plains. I just so happen to be giving a speech on tornadoes that day so it would be kind of ironic if we have a severe event on the same day here lol.

[Iceresistance]

6z GEFS Mean SCP at +114 hours . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ice resistance you are RIGHT under that. I am sure you know. This could be exciting for you.

[Iceresistance]

Ice resistance you are RIGHT under that. I am sure you know. This could be exciting for you.

I know! I'm ready for the main show of Storm Season . . .


Also, the SPC has this to say on Next Week

Medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in showing a
mid-level low/trough over the Interior West on Monday (day 4). As
the western U.S. disturbance moves eastward into the central U.S.
during the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, the risk for thunderstorms
will increase for portions of the central states. Considerable
uncertainty exists for both thunderstorms and any potential severe
risk as this mid-level feature interacts with northward-advecting
Gulf moisture. By the latter part of the extended period, large
model spread is evident.

[ElectricStorm]

6z GEFS Mean SCP at +114 hours . . .

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_114.png

Well luckily Tuesday appears to be too capped for anything big to form...

[Iceresistance]

6z GEFS Mean SCP at +114 hours . . .

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_114.png

Well luckily Tuesday appears to be too capped for anything big to form...

But the cap will allow only certain storms to form . . . when the updraft gets extremely intense . . .

[ElectricStorm]

6z GEFS Mean SCP at +114 hours . . .

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_114.png

Well luckily Tuesday appears to be too capped for anything big to form...

But the cap will allow only certain storms to form . . . when the updraft gets extremely intense . . .

Things could change obviously, but everything I've seen so far looks like the cap will be too strong for anything to form at all on Tuesday. Right now I'm not expecting anything big but it's several days away still so that could change. I think Wednesday could be a problem for E OK if the system slows down a bit

[ElectricStorm]

Well luckily Tuesday appears to be too capped for anything big to form...

But the cap will allow only certain storms to form . . . when the updraft gets extremely intense . . .

Things could change obviously, but everything I've seen so far looks like the cap will be too strong for anything to form at all on Tuesday. Right now I'm not expecting anything big but it's several days away still so that could change. I think Wednesday could be a problem for E OK if the system slows down a bit

To add to this, it does look like Tuesday will be a decent setup though. Just right now I think the cap might be a little too strong.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

2 Possible Tornadoes reported in Southern Mississippi today . . .

Gulf Coast magic.

https://twitter.com/backinblack_wx/status/1377053365574701056
https://twitter.com/PatrickEllisWx/status/1377038763919040513

Also looks like to be a decent TOR on the ground near Spencer, LA (not pictured in the image above, that was for the earlier Mississippi storm near US-49).

Sorry for the really late comment on this but why would the Gulf Coast be a better environment for tornadoes? Maybe it depends on where on the Gulf Coast you are? In Texas it definitely doesn’t feel like the Gulf Coast enhances tornado formation.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the severe weather lull is almost over. Day 5 slight risk issued by SPC.