Texas Summer 2025

[DallasAg]

The latest CPC outlooks look amazing for NTX. Below normal temps and above normal precip through Day 14, with a moderate risk of heavy rain for the Red River valley areas. Hope it verifies...would be a fitting end to a much-needed mild summer.

[wxman22]

[HockeyTx82]

https://i.ibb.co/hxXj1RFj/gfs-T2ma-scus-29.png

https://i.ibb.co/4wLXSWkH/Ca55pture.png

Can we bookmark that and go ahead and post it in the winter thread?

[mmmmsnouts]

Practically that would be what, low to mid 80s in DFW? Snap your hand off for that.

[Brent]

My high on Tuesday is 71 right now what a way to end August. NWS even saying some places may stay in the 60s all day

This could be the cherry on top of a very unusual summer

[gpsnowman]

https://i.ibb.co/hxXj1RFj/gfs-T2ma-scus-29.png

https://i.ibb.co/4wLXSWkH/Ca55pture.png

This makes me very happy.

[HockeyTx82]

So I've been doing some AI research and it says that enhanced soil moisture can help with winter storm potential. So the fact that we've had a wet summer and potentially wet fall I guess bodes well in favor of us having some more winter weather this winter?

There's really not much of a drought condition in the state at least in our part of it.

Any other thoughts on this?

[Brent]

So I've been doing some AI research and it says that enhanced soil moisture can help with winter storm potential. So the fact that we've had a wet summer and potentially wet fall I guess bodes well in favor of us having some more winter weather this winter?

There's really not much of a drought condition in the state at least in our part of it.

Any other thoughts on this?

You would think but who knows really. It has been one of the wettest years on record here but I haven't found much of a correlation to snowy winters yet

Unfortunately our two wettest years 1973 and 2015 the winters sucked

Also I heard Starbucks is getting the pumpkin spice latte on Tuesday

[TropicalTundra]

So I've been doing some AI research and it says that enhanced soil moisture can help with winter storm potential. So the fact that we've had a wet summer and potentially wet fall I guess bodes well in favor of us having some more winter weather this winter?

There's really not much of a drought condition in the state at least in our part of it.

Any other thoughts on this?

Best guess is that it helps keep the ground set to the temperature above, so when a cooler weather system passes the heat from the ground stored by the moisture begins to rise & bring moisture with it. Kind of like how you blow heat off of ramen maybe

[cstrunk]

I got teased yesterday with only 0.09" rain.

But today... today I finally hit a downpour jackpot. 1.46" this morning! My lawn will be happy.

[HockeyTx82]

https://i.ibb.co/hxXj1RFj/gfs-T2ma-scus-29.png

https://i.ibb.co/4wLXSWkH/Ca55pture.png

Don't let Evan on Fox 4 see this post, he'll give us a lecture on the TV.

[rwfromkansas]

Another shock .80 this morning around north Fort Worth.

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0974
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1212 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Areas affected...southeast Texas, southwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221611Z - 222211Z

Summary...Slow-moving convection continues to expand in coverage this morning, with areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates becoming likely beneath the strongest storms. Flash flooding is expected.

Discussion...Deep convection has been focused mainly along coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana for most of the morning. Over the past hour or so, storms has materialized just inland across the discussion area (nearer to I-10) due to 1) strong surface heating/destabilization, 2) abundant moisture (2.3 inch PW), and 3) convergence along a weak front across the region (generally from Houston Metro east to Baton Rouge, LA). Kinematics/steering flow aloft are very weak (<5 knots), suggestive of slow-moving cells/clusters that are outflow dominant and propagate erratically through the afternoon. A few of these clusters were forming near Lake Charles and just north of Houston while already producing spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates.

With continued surface heating, convective clusters are expected to expand in coverage. The orientation of storms relative to outflow from prior activity over the Gulf suggests potential for several cell mergers as well. 2-3 inch/hr rain rates will eventually materialize, and may impact populated/flashy urban centers such as Lake Charles, Beaumont, and Houston through 20Z. FFGs near those areas are as low as 1-1.5 inches/hr and should be readily exceeded. Surrounding areas have higher FFGs (in the 3 inch/hr range) that should still be exceeded as stronger convection develops through the morning and early afternoon. Areas of flash flooding are expected given the developing scenario.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

[jasons2k]

Satellite and stationary front.

[Brent]

GFS and NAM have temperatures in the 60s all day Monday here

And we may get another shot at that later next week

It's only happened 4 times in August apparently. What is showing up on the models is pretty unprecedented for sure

[jasons2k]

I got 1.97” yesterday.
Here’s a snapshot of the morning radar in SE Texas:

[TomballEd]

My wife said it rained at the house in the morning yesterday but it didn't rain ~13 miles E close to the Hardy Toll Road and FM 1960.

I think it was Wednesday night that we had a nice thunderstorm while the in-laws about a mile about a mile W of here had quarter sized hail and a dimpled pickup truck. Summer storms are just so hit and miss.

[txtwister78]

Summer heat still holding on across SC TX and that likely will continue into next week but as we move into the end of August and especially early September we need to watch the tropics and perhaps with greater interest in the pacific just off Mexico as opposed to the gulf.

Models are hinting at increased tropical activity with the opportunity for some of that moisture being picked up into Texas as we move into first week of September? Still several days to watch this of course but with these stronger frontal boundaries making in roads into Texas and the potential for tropical moisture around, definitely something to watch.

[wxman22]

The cold front looks to move through here tomorrow afternoon around 4-5 pm or so.Temps drop from 98 F around 5 pm to the mid 70's by 8 pm. With Highs Tuesday not getting out of the 70's here. A pretty potent front by August standards. Another strong front looks to arrive Thursday also.

[Brent]

The cold front looks to move through here tomorrow afternoon around 4-5 pm or so.Temps drop from 98 F around 5 pm to the mid 70's by 8 pm. With Highs Tuesday not getting out of the 70's here. A pretty potent front by August standards. Another strong front looks to arrive Thursday also.

https://i.ibb.co/ynDJzTt9/gfsd-T2ma-scus-9.png

https://i.ibb.co/vCbnSFGG/gfs-T2ma-scus-23.png

Yeah so far I haven't found much that compares to this week here. In the past "cold" days in August it was always back near 90 after a couple days mostly

We may stay mostly below 80 through the beginning of Labor Day weekend which is just crazy. This timeframe is still filled with heat in most years