Florida Weather

[NDG]

Models have really backed away from that much precipitation for the Tampa area for Sunday morning, when the lowest heights are going to visit central FL, any precip will be further south in south FL where it will definitely be too warm for any frozen precip, but if it stays at least cloudy all day during the day Sunday, temps may not get out of the 50s all day down there.

GFS MOS guidance continue with the idea that any light freezing temps in central FL will be in the usual colder areas of near Ocala and perhaps as far south as Brooksville for Monday morning, but definitely not as cold as to the coldest temps of the season from a couple weeks ago. GFS now shows upper 20s dewpoints to make it to Orlando, but like I said earlier this is not a true Arctic airmass as the one 2 weeks ago when we had single digit dewpoints making down here.

[TheStormExpert]

Dew points not being as low as they were 2 weeks ago with that specific artic front makes sense. Isn't there supposed to be some moisture still left behind after the front moves through which is very unusual with these cold fronts in florida?

[NDG]

The precipitation behind the cold front has to do that the very cold upper level trough's axis will be swinging through behind the cold front, it's strong forcing will wring out out the atmosphere with precip, cold air will also pick up some moisture from the warmer waters off the GOM because surface winds will be of a W to NW direction.

[northjaxpro]

Yep. The potent cold core upper Low which has been long advertised to sharpen the 500 mb upper level trough over the Eastern U.S. is already diving down from the Plains into the base of the trough beginning tonight and continuing through Saturday. As NDG stated, the strong forcing of the cold core upper Low will create the uplift to form showers over the milder/warmer waters of the GOM and spread them east over the next 24 hours orso across the south and south -central areas of the peninsula. This feature will also bring the coldest of the air to the peninsula by Sunday. Highs will only reach the low-mid 50s at best across the northern peninsula tomorrow and Sunday, and low-mid 60s at best across the southern peninsula if they are fortunate down there.

Temps are forecast to get right near the freeze mark both Sunday and Monday mornings at my locale. I will be interested in the next set of model runs late tonight to see if temps may trend slightly colder for Monday morning. But, no question, it will be rather chilly weekend across the entire peninsula and even into Monday. Temps will moderate some for Tuesday across the peninsula just ahead of the next storm system the models are showing for this upcoming week. This next system is forecast to develop over the Tennessee Valley and shift east to form a potential major storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast sometime by Wednesday. This system will bring another round of rain and storms to the peninsula and bring another cold front through Wedneday night-Thursday time frame. It will cool down toward the end of next week, but hopefully the air mass behind this next upcoming system will not be as cold as this current one across the region, or during 2/16 - 2/18 cold spell.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Once this chilly spell is over, can we get spring? Is it coming?

give me a break!!!

How many *days* have you been below 32F??????????

[northjaxpro]

Good morning. It is 36.7 degrees and clear skies here this morning as the cirrus canopy which rapidly moved in yesterday shifted south overnight as the upper trough axis sharpens across the SE U.S. The large 500 mb upper trough continues to sharpen early this morning as a couple of vort maxes continues to rotate southeast down into the base of the amplifying trough all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Looking at the water vapor satellite imagery, there are two discernable vorts rotating down through the large trough. These vortices are squeezing out all available moisture in the mid-upper levels in the form of very light snow/flurries in areas of the SE U.S. A weaker vort is moving through upstate SC/western NC mountains currently. The other main and stronger vort is moving south out of KY into TN. This vort will continue to dive south and then eventually east through the base of the larger mean 500 mb trough through tonight.

There will be a cold air stratocumulous deck moving through much of Alabama and Georgia today as the upper shortwave moves through the region. It appears that Northeast Florida will see a partly cloudy sky conditions by afternoon as we should remain just south of the main stratocu deck as the shortwave rotates through. Brisk west-northwest winds and strong cold air advection will keep our high temps today in the Jax area only in the 52-55 degree range. Freeze warning for tomorrow morning all of inland areas of Northeast Florida west and north of the St. Johns River, such as my home locale. Lows expected in the 30-32 degree range inland.

The concern is Monday morning as the High Pressure ridge axis will get closer to the peninsula to subside the winds. This would allow for more radiational cooling and frost to develop across North Florida. This has prompted the NWS to issue a Hard Freeze watch for areas over in the Suwannee River Valley for Monday morning. For Jax, it is looking like temps will be in the 28-32 degree range at my locale for Monday morning. If the winds really get light on Monday morning, frost will be a big concern as well.

[gsytch]

ZERO and that's the way it should be. A chilly 45F at wakeup. Here comes the cold.

Once this chilly spell is over, can we get spring? Is it coming?

give me a break!!!

How many *days* have you been below 32F??????????

[Sanibel]

56* low, 62* high. Chilly wind just picked-up. Overcast.

[gsytch]

A raw 43F at wakeup under overcast, breezes down to 5-10mph now and out of the N. What an ugly morning. Areas from Ocala north are near or at freezing and some showers have formed south of Sarasota due to the cold air over the warmer GOM. This is going to be one COLD day.

[northjaxpro]

Just measured 33.8 degrees at 7 a.m. It is going to be a close call here to see if the freezing mark can be achieved this morning in the next hour so in the time leading through sunrise. Strong cold air advection will continue statewide today. High temps in Jax area, like yesterday, will only reach the mid 50s. As a mentioned yestday, High Pressure will settle in closer to the peninula late tonight into Monday. This will set the stage for the coldest morning of this event tomorrow morning. Winds will subside across the northern and north-central peninsula, thus radiational cooling sets up. NWS has now issued freeze warnings for all of Northeast Florida and Hard Freeze warnings for Suwannee River Valley. Lows tomorrow morning forecast for mid-upper 20s Suwannee River Valley area and upper 20s - lower 30s for Northeast Florida.

There is a stratocumulus deck associated with the main axis of the extremely deep 500 mb trough swinging east across the SE U.S. this morning. You can see the stratocu deck well on the IR imagery this morning, stretching from TN Valley southward all the way to the Gulf Coast and into the Tallahassee area. This deck should dissipate and disperse after sunrise as the trough axis swings east through the region today.

Look at the WV image for this hour. It shows the anomalously deep 500 mb trough and the main axis at the base of it swinging through the Deep South extremely well. This trough extends all the way down to the Yucatan Peninsula to the western tip of Cuba. This is very impressive any time of year, let alone on the third day of March.

[img]

[northjaxpro]

Looks as if I escaped a freeze this morning. The lowest reading measured was 33.4 degrees and now it has warmed to 35.2 about 30 minutes after sunrise.

So, Saturday morning, I measured 35.6 degrees for the low temp
This morning 33.4 degrees

Looks very likely I will measure temps below freezing on Monday morning.

Again, I am holding at a total of 8 morning freezes for the entire season, and will likely add one more to this tomorrow.

[NDG]

A raw 43F at wakeup under overcast, breezes down to 5-10mph now and out of the N. What an ugly morning. Areas from Ocala north are near or at freezing and some showers have formed south of Sarasota due to the cold air over the warmer GOM. This is going to be one COLD day.

Other than a couple of spots along the Nature Coast like Cross City the only other place that I see that hit the freezing mark this morning was at Daytona Beach Airport, mostly because of the cloud deck the western portions of the peninsula did not hit the freezing mark.
The Orlando area temps got down to the upper 30s before the cloud deck rolled in around sunrise.
Like northjaxpro said, tonight will be the coldest night of the event, skies should be clear so widespread freezing temps from Ocala on northward and where it does not freeze in Central FL frost could be a concern if winds die down enough.
Good thing this weather pattern came in this time of the year, it would had been way colder had it been in Dec-Jan.

Edit: Looking at the models closely, winds may stay up strong enough during night across most of central FL, so frost may not be much of a concern, the surface high is not forecasted to settle into heart of the Peninsula until during the day tomorrow.

[FireRat]

For the first time in many days, we are having brilliant sunshine down here!
It is really taking the edge off the cold and warming temps quickly into the 50s. Supposed to reach the high 60s today if this continues. This morning's nice tropical-esque sunshine is a good thing, especially after such a raw overnight with rain and temps in the 40s!

Yesterday the sun was pretty filtered and the winds made it feel like the low-mid 50s all day. The days prior to that were cool, cloudy and damp! Let's see if the warmup begins now down here...although they say tonite will be the chilliest!

[gsytch]

It is 43.7F right now, 930am, overcast and thick cloud deck, breeze at 5mph steady, a light shower has been noticed. Raw. Awful. That cloud deck better leave or we will not hit 50F, and if skies clear and winds abate, tonight will be very, very cold! Coldest day of the season and its March. UGH!

[Sanibel]

47* low here. Bright March sun already biting into cold. Had light showers last night.

[gsytch]

The sun has come out, somewhat, in breaks and we have ZOOMED up to 52F with that stiff breeze. GOM has dropped to 59F so its influence is a little less now. That is the coldest reading of the winter off our coast. I have the greenhouse totally closed up so it can absorb ANY solar energy. It is up to 74F in there - that's where I want to be! Transplanted my last tomatoes into 1 gal pots so it NEEDS to warm up. They get planted next weekend (and a little late I might add).

[northjaxpro]

Thanks to the trough axis swinging through the region today, the stratocumulus deck has come in and made today the coldest day of the season for daytime max temps at my locale here in Jax. Just checked the NWS site and snow flurries were reported just north of me in parts of Southeast GA earlier this afternoon. Right now, it is 44.3 degrees at the temp has been holding steady in the low 40s since the stratocu deck moved in late this morning here in Northeast Florida. Temperature will not make it to 50 today. NWS Jax is now forecasting 27 degrees for tomorrow morning.

The trough axis will swing through by tonight and the clouds should finally disperse as High Pressure builds in closer to the area. The winds should begin to relax later tonight and where the winds really bcome light, the radiational cooling will be maximized and also frost will form in areas of North Florida tommorow morning.

[FireRat]

And the clouds moved in around 1pm lol, there went our "upper 60s".
58 now and very windy! That morning sun fooled me and many around here. coldest day so far too!

[psyclone]

If january felt like March, I guess it's only fair that we squeeze some January into March. interesting to note that even though it's blustery and chilly, you can feel the intensity of the sun now. it's cranking up. March cold really is transient.

[northjaxpro]

Today was the coldest day of the season by far. Set a new record low max temp officially at the NWS Jax office, where they only measured 47 degrees. At my locale about 5 miles away from the NWS, I measured 47.3 degrees for a max temp. It was as cold and blustery a day I have seen in this area in quite some time. The trough axis which brought in the stratocumulus deck late this morning into the afternoon really kept temps in check all day in the 40s, along with the strong cold air advection.

Currently at my locale, it is already 34.2 degrees and should be below freezing within the hour. A long duration freeze is in store tonight with some areas across the region having a significant hard freeze, with temps 27 degrees or lower for more than two hours. That is what is expected over in the Suwannee River Valley region tomorrow morning. This freeze event across North Florida may be a very significant event in terms of possible damage to the potato crop down in Hastings. Winds also have really relaxed as the High pressure ridge axis is building into the region now and frost will be another big concern in this region in the morning if the winds stay light.