Florida Weather

[Sanibel]

It finally broke. Wind shift to NE and 57* this morning going to 77* this afternoon.

[vbhoutex]

It finally broke. Wind shift to NE and 57* this morning going to 77* this afternoon.

LOL!! If we have a NE wind flow here in SE TX we normally are going to be colder.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Hopefully we get some much needed rain down here the end of next week. I'm sure will get some. But usually the ecmwf wins over the gfs. So maybe some rain will wash my car next week.

Rain chances return Wednesday through Friday as an area of low
pressure develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and surges to the
northeast and across the Florida Peninsula bringing copius amounts
of moisture with it. Models differ on the track of the low with
the European model (ecmwf) tracking the low across the Florida Panhandle. The GFS
however takes the low much further south across southern Florida
with much higher amounts of rainfall possible. Subsequent models
will need to be monitored closely for better agreement.

[NDG]

Over all rain chances return to FL for next week, whether the Euro or the GFS is the one correct, us here in central FL stand pretty well in between the two solutions to receive much needed rains.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm sure the euro will win and you will get more rain then S. fl. I'll take what I get. Lawn getting brown.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning! I hope everyone is enjoying this Easter weekend. It should be beautiful weather-wise as temps return to where we should be approaching April. We will see max temps today and tomorrow near 80 degrees and mins in the 50s. We deserve this treat for sure after going through this month of March 2013. It will definitely go down as one of the coldest ever on record in these parts.

Just to put in perspective how cold this month was at my locale:

There was a total measured 11 mornings with the temperature below 40 degrees, with eight of these being at 35 degrees or lower.

The coldest day: March 3, with a high of only 47 degrees, which set a record low max for the date officially at the NWS Jax office

The coldest temperature meaured : 29 degrees on March 4.

So far, there have been only two days where the max temperature was measured at or above 80 degrees. This may change at bit this weekend as we may see 80 either today or tomorrow.

Amazing that I only had one freeze for March, but I had some several near misses as there were seven mornings where the temp was measured at 35 degrees or lower.

It was record breaking cold this past week at the end of March across the peninsula, with many spots either breaking or seeing records tied. Mother nature really turned the tables on us after spoling us all with such unseasonable warmth during December and January, and up to about mid-February.

Barring any other freakish late season cold spells from Mother Nature, the Fall and Winter season of 2012-13 will end with me measuring a total of just 9 freezes, with only one hard freeze among them (Feb 18). Compared to last season's 16 total freezes. we were blessed to have a much warmer than average winter this year.

It took all winter long for the AO to turn negative thankfully or else much of the peninsula would have seen some damaging freezes for sure. I really get frightened to imagine if the negative AO had set up in January and February. Thankfully, the pattern is finally breaking and it looks like we can finally settle into our spring to eventual summer transition. I think it is finally safe to go out and finally get the tomatoes started in the garden.

Have a great Easter weekend everyone!

[NDG]

As of yesterday here in Orlando so far this month we are averaging a whopping 5.7 degrees below average despite having a 90 degree high on the 19th, not the coldest March on record but one of the coldest in a while.
We will end up with only 10 days of 80 degs or higher, compared to March of last year which averaged 4.8 degs above average with 25 days of 80 degs or higher.

Chance of rain returns tomorrow to the FL Peninsula, and again towards late Wed-Friday time frame.
Tomorrow north FL has the highest chances with possibly central FL getting into the action before a weak front moves through and dries out the atmosphere temporarily for a couple of days. Rain may return as early as Wed night as a weak warm front moves north.
Thursday looks like the highest chance of rain for central and north FL, late Thursday night/Friday for South FL.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami article posted: "March 2013 Will End Up In The Top Ten Coldest AND ALSO COLDER THAN THE PAST FOUR MONTHS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 80 YEARS."

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/TopN ... 13Cold.pdf

[AdamFirst]

SPC has posted a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Southeastern Florida. Also mentions possibility for enhanced thunderstorm activity over east central FL up to Melbourne.

[NDG]

Parts of Miami got lucky this afternoon with over 2" of rain estimated by radar.
So far not much here in east central FL, very warm though, with a stiff westerly winds any showers pop up over the next few hours will be closer to Cape Canaveral area.

[TheStormExpert]

The scattered t-storms that were predicted for SE. FL never panned out. Hopefully this upcoming rainy season offers enough rain.

[Sanibel]

Recent times continue to show concentrated records on both the warm and cold ends, as well as extremes. A sign of Global Warming amplitude in my opinion.

The polar dam probably finally broke with this March record.

[cycloneye]

Watch out for the severe weather in North and Central Florida.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT WED APR 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031939Z - 032045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN GA/NRN FL. WITH A FEW STRONGER/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF INCREASING CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ATTM ACROSS
SERN GA AND ADJACENT NRN FL ATTM...AHEAD OF A LARGER CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER CROSSING THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR BOTH A W-E
WARM-FRONTAL SEGMENT AND A WWD-MOVING E COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

WHILE HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL
FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS BEING AIDED BY 40 TO
50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS ENHANCING 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER THE
REGION. THOUGH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS EVOLVING ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
WARRANTS CONTINUED MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/03/2013

[JonathanBelles]

We'll likely be doing severe weather coverage tomorrow night for north Florida at FSU Weather. I'll be on tonight as regularly scheduled at 6:00pm on http://www.livestream.com/fsuweather and on channel 4 in Tallahassee.

[NDG]

Nice rain coverage across most of central and northern FL this evening.
Did the Euro get this right or what, ever since Saturday night's run it showed this plum of moisture to move over the FL Peninsula for tonight.
This is exactly what we needed before mother nature turns on the heat of spring befor the summer's rainy season kicks on in 6-8 weeks from now.

[psyclone]

the SVR threat could be significant across portions of florida tomorrow, especially central florida, which appears to be in a good position for respectable surface instability. north florida looks interesting too, with a frontal boundary perhaps compensating for lesser surface instability. at this point i would place my bets for the best severe potential over the tampa and melbourne CWAs and the southern part of Jacksonville's CWA. interesting times for sure.

[cycloneye]

Those in Central Florida watch out for the severe weather today and tonight.

[AdamFirst]

SPC places highest severe potential against immediate East Central Florida coast with 10% tornado probabilities and 30% hail probabilities

[psyclone]

per SPC meso discussion watch is likely... probably tornado and likely south of the I-4 corridor. this threat has certainly trended south over the last couple of days

[AdamFirst]

I seem to be on the firing line for today's severe weather.

I'll keep you guys posted if anything happens here. Maybe finally I can call in something for Skywarn.