Texas Fall 2013

[HockeyTx82]

32 Here in Denton. Awfully cold here on the UNT campus.

One of my weather apps on my phone is showing light snow. Don't see anything but a fine rain/mist outside.

[downsouthman1]

Well this morning's model runs are really starting to come together outside of the GFS, which looks like a convoluted mess. The Bulls Eye for this event looks like it will be from DFW to Stephenville to Brownwood, 50 miles either side of this line appears to be ground zero with sleet/freezing rain the dominate precip type. Too early to call amounts though, will wait until tomorrow morning

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I'm thinking that's the north edge of the bullseye.

Took a blend of the European and NAM for this one. Also, pay attention to tonight's European run, it is starting to trend much further south with the ULL. If this were to verify, it could tap into the gulf and create a decent snowstorm on the backside of the low Tuesday morning.

Tuesday morning or Monday morning?

On another note, that band of precip from Abilene to Uvalde is gaining intensity & coverage while moving generally NE.

[orangeblood]

[quote/]

Took a blend of the European and NAM for this one. Also, pay attention to tonight's European run, it is starting to trend much further south with the ULL. If this were to verify, it could tap into the gulf and create a decent snowstorm on the backside of the low Tuesday morning.[/quote]
Tuesday morning or Monday morning?[/quote]

There will be two parts to this storm, the heavy precip Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning and then potentially early Tuesday when the ULL moves overhead

[weatherdude1108]

Just for a moments diversion from todays weather and just for fun because I know this will change, the gfs for Dec. 8 show almost the whole state of Tx under snow cover.

Well we were warned that this could just be the tip of the iceberg.

No pun intended.

[joshskeety]

15zSREF it total agreement with the 9z run..

Simply put... Not very often will you hear me freak out and start scrambling for the grocery store, but this would be one of those times..

For the Metroplex people, especially on the Ft. Worth side, south or north 50 miles across from about Saturday night about 10PM until Monday Evening, if these models are correct its going to be pretty bad... The reality is temps will be in the Upper 20's to near 30 and when it starts it isn't going to stop until Monday late evening.. Also, there is little model evidence that Monday will get warm enough to change to rain.. Just none actually, in fact the models show that Monday morning there is another small surge of cold air..

[downsouthman1]

[quote/]

Took a blend of the European and NAM for this one. Also, pay attention to tonight's European run, it is starting to trend much further south with the ULL. If this were to verify, it could tap into the gulf and create a decent snowstorm on the backside of the low Tuesday morning.

Tuesday morning or Monday morning?[/quote]

There will be two parts to this storm, the heavy precip Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning and then potentially early Tuesday when the ULL moves overhead[/quote]


I guess I considered it one long event with a 6-12 hour recovery gap.

[joshskeety]

Wife just called from Springtown, she stated everything out there is covered with ice.. GREAT.. Here in Downtown Ft. Worth just wet, but out there (I live way out in the boonies away from the mess called the "Metroplex".. lol Anyhow, that means my drive home is going to SUCK!!!!!

She has left to pick up the kiddos from school early, and almost a guarantee there wont be school on Monday.. Lucky im on vacation all next week, so whatever happens, happens.. lol

[downsouthman1]

Wife just called from Springtown, she stated everything out there is covered with ice.. GREAT.. Here in Downtown Ft. Worth just wet, but out there (I live way out in the boonies away from the mess called the "Metroplex".. lol Anyhow, that means my drive home is going to SUCK!!!!!

She has left to pick up the kiddos from school early, and almost a guarantee there wont be school on Monday.. Lucky im on vacation all next week, so whatever happens, happens.. lol

Good luck man!

[joshskeety]

Thanks.. Guess this means my hunting trip tomorrow may be cancelled.. If it was a lease close by I would go, but its a 50 mile trek... We need to start scheduling these trips better..

[downsouthman1]

Thanks.. Guess this means my hunting trip tomorrow may be cancelled.. If it was a lease close by I would go, but its a 50 mile trek... We need to start scheduling these trips better..

This storm system is catching many off guard because it's setting in quicker than even us who pay attention to it expected.

[Rgv20]

Front just got here and the Temperature drop from 85 to 65 in 20 minutes!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
142 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

TXZ250>257-222145-
BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALFURRIAS...SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...
ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...
RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...
PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
140 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A PORT
MANSFIELD TO MCCOOK TO NORTH OF RIO GRANDE CITY LINE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTH AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH ANY STORMS THAT PRODUCE HAIL
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WILL BE LOW. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
EXPECTED AS THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING 20 DEGREES IN 20 MINUTES AND 30 DEGREES WITHIN 2 HOURS
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

$$

[WeatherNewbie]

Lots of purple on the radar west of Fort Worth. Car temperature said 35 degrees with solid rain coming down here on the border of Carrollton and Plano.

[wxman57]

Wife just called from Springtown, she stated everything out there is covered with ice.. GREAT.. Here in Downtown Ft. Worth just wet, but out there (I live way out in the boonies away from the mess called the "Metroplex".. lol Anyhow, that means my drive home is going to SUCK!!!!!

She has left to pick up the kiddos from school early, and almost a guarantee there wont be school on Monday.. Lucky im on vacation all next week, so whatever happens, happens.. lol

Aren't the kids out for the Thanksgiving holiday next week?

12Z Euro has 3-6" snow for Dallas/Ft. Worth starting early afternoon on Sunday.

[Jarodm12]

Wife just called from Springtown, she stated everything out there is covered with ice.. GREAT.. Here in Downtown Ft. Worth just wet, but out there (I live way out in the boonies away from the mess called the "Metroplex".. lol Anyhow, that means my drive home is going to SUCK!!!!!

She has left to pick up the kiddos from school early, and almost a guarantee there wont be school on Monday.. Lucky im on vacation all next week, so whatever happens, happens.. lol

Aren't the kids out for the Thanksgiving holiday next week?

12Z Euro has 3-6" snow for Dallas/Ft. Worth starting early afternoon on Sunday.

Hey wxman57 long time lurker here very much appreciate reading your metro grams and your forecast how does Waco look to far winter weather wise in your opinion this weekend?

[srainhoutx]

Active afternoon across Texas and Oklahoma. Many reports are beginning to come in across Central Texas, mainly in the Hill Country from Kerrville on ENE of some light accumulation freezing rain. Also Lubbock has extended their Ice Storm Warning as travel conditions deteriorate and now reports NW of Ft Worth of sleet and freezing rain. The afternoon Updated Freezing Rain Possibility/Percentages Forecasts are out from the HPC/WPC suggesting a much wider area of concern and increasing chances across the I-35 Corridor and extending closer to portions of SE Texas. It is also noteworthy that the W to E spread now includes portions of NE Mexico into NW Louisiana and Arkansas.

[joshskeety]

Wife just called from Springtown, she stated everything out there is covered with ice.. GREAT.. Here in Downtown Ft. Worth just wet, but out there (I live way out in the boonies away from the mess called the "Metroplex".. lol Anyhow, that means my drive home is going to SUCK!!!!!

She has left to pick up the kiddos from school early, and almost a guarantee there wont be school on Monday.. Lucky im on vacation all next week, so whatever happens, happens.. lol

Aren't the kids out for the Thanksgiving holiday next week?

12Z Euro has 3-6" snow for Dallas/Ft. Worth starting early afternoon on Sunday.

Nope, they only get Thurs/Fri off for Thanksgiving.. Still have school Mon tues and wed...

Josh

[joshskeety]

Just going over the 18zNAM data and all I can think of is wow.. Unreal.. North Texas is in for it...

[CaptinCrunch]

Bet they don't have school Monday....lol

[WacoWx]

Is Dallas going to get to 32 Sunday to get a piece?

[Janie2006]

The Big D could very well get a piece of the action, but not for the moment.