Texas Spring 2020

[Ntxw]

Radar starting to fill in over DFW and the 12z hi-res models are all in on a big time rainfall event lol

I'm sure FWD is all like "Arrghhh!" after cutting totals way back.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.FWS.N0Q.20200516.1345.024ani.gif

Surface low is tracking NW from SE Texas. This trajectory usually spells locally very heavy rain. Even some "rain bombs" can occur since it is very slow moving. Today is the meat of the rain and I would even be quite bullish compared to last night's line.

[WacoWx]

I see 2 circulations. Is the main one to the east of Waco or NW of DFW?

[bubba hotep]

12z Hi-res models say "buckle up!"

[rwfromkansas]

Overnight was odd. Got .20 with those initial storms going southwest. Then I thought I DEFINITELY would get the line coming from the west and apparently not. My weather station shows no rain overnight.

I am stunned that line of storms died before DFW.

Now this morning it is POURING non-stop here in north Tarrant. I’m already at 1.50 just since 9 a.m. That beats even some of the updated models.

[gpsnowman]

Overnight was odd. Got .20 with those initial storms going southwest. Then I thought I DEFINITELY would get the line coming from the west and apparently not. My weather station shows no rain overnight.

I am stunned that line of storms died before DFW.

Now this morning it is POURING non-stop here in north Tarrant. I’m already at 1.50 just since 9 a.m. That beats even some of the updated models.

Very odd. The line just disappeared right at the doorstep. We should make up for it today. Pouring rain currently, more already than last night. Keep it coming. Including yesterday rain has come in from all directions. Weird to see that in less than 24 hours.

[Brent]

And now we have a flash flood watch what a mess to forecast

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central Texas and
northeast Texas, including the following areas, in north central
Texas, Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Fannin, Freestone,
Grayson, Hill, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Limestone, Navarro,
Rockwall and Tarrant. In northeast Texas, Anderson, Delta,
Henderson, Hopkins, Lamar, Rains and Van Zandt.

* Through late tonight

* Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher amounts
possible.

[bubba hotep]

Flash Flood warning now for parts of DFW.

[rwfromkansas]

2.15 now IMBY since 9.

[HockeyTx82]

Been raining hard here in Ponder most of the AM. Standing water in the yard. Mother Nature likes to keep things interesting. Good day to break out the Lego Monorail Airport Shuttle. It's my set from when I was a kid in the early 90's. I have all the parts and the expansion pack track. Somehow it managed to survive all these years in my mom's attic through Texas summers with no damage and all the parts along with the instructions. Now I get to enjoy it with my boys. If you're a Lego fan I'm sure you know what I'm talking about. If not look it up, crazy what this thing would sell for.

[WacoWx]

Waves of precip really lining up east of Dallas heading this way.

[Brent]

Unlike last night the rain is becoming more widespread and looks like its gonna be awhile

[rwfromkansas]

Guessing I will end about 3.50. I hope the airport gets more. It’s in a gap.

[TheProfessor]

Glad to see some of our Texas friends cashing in on the rain. The lack of eastward progression of rain once you get about 10 miles east of me is concerning though. This isn't just a recent thing, once you get east of me into Slidell and southeastern Mississippi and throughout the Florida panhandle it's been a stark contrast the past 60 days, they've been missing out on the past few rain events and are lagging behind. If we see a feedback loop develop where weakness is more common over Texas and most of Louisiana and the eastern GOM experiences more ridging, then that'd be like painting a target on our backs if any tropical system entered the Gulf.

[bubba hotep]

DFW up to nearly 2.5" and Ft. Alliance is over 3"

And more on the way. I wonder if the 4.62" daily record is in reach for DFW? Looks like the record for Ft. Alliance was only 1.38" (that seems really low).

[bubba hotep]

[Haris]

So last night was interesting. The area of stratiform rain ended up lasting until 4am and was way larger than any model had. Hence, the higher rain totals. But also, there were a lot of positive lightning strikes, some bolt of the blue... which are VERY unusual.

Per the nws... a large area of stratiform rain continues over the
eastern half of the CWA. Lightning activity within this shield
continues to be impressive and there are actually some cloud-to-
ground strikes behind the the precip area which seems like a pretty
rare occurrence. In addition, we are also seeing some rapid pressure
falls on the back edge of the rain with northeast winds increasing to
near 35-40 mph. This is indicative of a wake low which sometimes can
form with these system. These two interesting features likely go
together. There are radar returns above 15kft where these dry
lightning bolts are happening, which is expected since you need ice
for lightning production. However, no radar returns on the lowest
radar scans, tells us that all the precip here on the back side is
evaporating before reaching the surface. This is indicative of dry-
air subsidence which is what you need to get a wake-low to form. This
is quite an interesting setup.

[Ntxw]

DFW up to nearly 2.5" and Ft. Alliance is over 3"

And more on the way. I wonder if the 4.62" daily record is in reach for DFW? Looks like the record for Ft. Alliance was only 1.38" (that seems really low).

https://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.FWS.N0Q.20200516.1819.024ani.gif

It's possible. Source region SE TX (gulf) and mid/upper flow is ideal.

Long range we are heading into La Nina but delayed spring. Trough in west -PDO transition year reminds me of 2007.

[bubba hotep]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
214 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 133 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/
/Tonight and Tomorrow/

Bottom Line: The flash flooding threat will be increasing
generally along and east of I-35 through the afternoon hours.
Widespread 2-4 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts
possible.

A well defined Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) is currently
making its way northward out of the Brazos Valley, providing ample
amounts of forcing for ascent across much of North and Central
Texas. Precipitable water amount sampled this morning shows
values in excess of 1.5”, placing us around the 90th percentile
for this time of the year. Warm-rain processes are ongoing across
the region, meaning, even in the absence of lightning, rain rates
have been in excess of 1-1.5 inches per hour. With this trend
likely continuing and afternoon heating contributing to
atmospheric destabilization, the ongoing precipitation will likely
gain additional thunderstorm activity, further increasing the
potential for high rain rates.

Given the reasons above, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for
areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor, mainly for
North and East Texas. Latest high-resolution models suggest that
as the MCV continues to move northward, an axis of heavy
precipitation will develop this afternoon. The exact placement of
this axis still remains uncertain given widespread thunderstorms
have yet to develop. Within the axis of heavy rain, 2-4 inches can
be expected, with higher amounts possible.

As the MCV arrives to the I-30 corridor, it will then take a
right hand turn, moving into East Texas by tonight. Given ample
amounts of moisture, rain will continue to affect the eastern
portions of North Texas through the night into tomorrow morning.
The flash flooding threat will gradually decrease tonight given
rain rates are expected to once again diminish as the convective
elements dissipate.

Given the thick cloud cover and ongoing rain, have lowered
today’s high temperatures by several degrees. Where
precipitation is occurring, expect highs to stay in the 60s.
Across the I-14 corridor, however, sunshine is occurring,
therefore, highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s.

The rain will gradually make its way eastward tomorrow as the
low-level circulation makes its way out of our region.
Temperatures will return to more seasonal normals, with
northerly/northwesterly winds in place.

Hernandez

[Cpv17]

DFW up to nearly 2.5" and Ft. Alliance is over 3"

And more on the way. I wonder if the 4.62" daily record is in reach for DFW? Looks like the record for Ft. Alliance was only 1.38" (that seems really low).

https://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.FWS.N0Q.20200516.1819.024ani.gif

It's possible. Source region SE TX (gulf) and mid/upper flow is ideal.

Long range we are heading into La Nina but delayed spring. Trough in west -PDO transition year reminds me of 2007.

2007? If I remember correctly the summer of 2007 was very wet for southeast Texas. Not sure if I’m remembering this right or not or how it was in other parts of Texas but that was a great summer. I remember it being like a 30 to 50% chance of rain almost every day.

[weatherdude1108]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/rx6yvx5/83-BAF9-FA-B6-E3-41-B9-A633-C269-BD6-B13-A8.png [/url]

So last night was interesting. The area of stratiform rain ended up lasting until 4am and was way larger than any model had. Hence, the higher rain totals. But also, there were a lot of positive lightning strikes, some bolt of the blue... which are VERY unusual.

Per the nws... a large area of stratiform rain continues over the
eastern half of the CWA. Lightning activity within this shield
continues to be impressive and there are actually some cloud-to-
ground strikes behind the the precip area which seems like a pretty
rare occurrence. In addition, we are also seeing some rapid pressure
falls on the back edge of the rain with northeast winds increasing to
near 35-40 mph. This is indicative of a wake low which sometimes can
form with these system. These two interesting features likely go
together. There are radar returns above 15kft where these dry
lightning bolts are happening, which is expected since you need ice
for lightning production. However, no radar returns on the lowest
radar scans, tells us that all the precip here on the back side is
evaporating before reaching the surface. This is indicative of dry-
air subsidence which is what you need to get a wake-low to form. This
is quite an interesting setup.

That is interesting! I read recently where there has been very low sunspot activity, allowing more cosmic rays to enter the atmosphere.
It stated that the extra cosmic rays could create a more charged atmosphere, hence more lightning(?). But I don't really know. Just heresay.