Texas Fall 2025

[snownado]

Looking like I might end up in the bullsyee this round. Rainfall totals already pushing 2" per radar estimates, with plenty more t'storms upstream...

[snownado]

https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/19914169603 ... qF-qw&s=19

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1234
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...northeastern TX, southeastern OK into
south-central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200800Z - 201400Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northeastern TX, southeastern OK into south-central AR
through the early morning hours. 2 to 4 inches of rain in 2-3
hours is expected within idealized training, but the threat is
expected to primarily exist across urban areas or other locations
with poor drainage.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms were observed on 0730Z
radar/infrared satellite imagery over portions of northern TX into
southern OK. These storms were located beneath broad southwesterly
flow aloft, with low level warm advection helping aid ascent over
the region. While forcing for ascent was not strongly defined over
any particular region of TX/OK/AR, leading to a somewhat
disorganized pattern on radar imagery, trends have shown an
increasing coverage in the number of cells over the past few
hours, with movement off toward the northeast. MLCAPE was between
500-1500 J/kg with varying degrees of CIN, though many of the
ongoing cells were likely a bit elevated above the surface.
Moisture values were anomalously high for mid-November with
GPS-derived PW values between 1.5 to just over 1.7 inches as of
06Z in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth region.

Continued low level warm advection with transient axes of low
level convergence are likely to maintain scattered thunderstorms
with areas of short term training capable of producing 1 to 2
inches of rain in an hour, and 3-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches. Mean
movement of small thunderstorm clusters should continue off toward
the northeast but upstream development and training will
potentially result in flash flooding should these higher rainfall
totals overlap with an urban or otherwise poorly draining
location.

The 06Z and 07Z WoFS seems to have locked onto a signal for higher
rainfall potential with the 07Z cycle indicating a 40-50 percent
chance of exceeding 3 inches through the 11-12Z time frame within
an axis covering northeastern Dallas County into southern Collin
County. However, given a lack of rainfall over at least the past
2-3 weeks, flash flood guidance is relatively high which should
limit the coverage of flash flooding over the next 3-6 hours.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35659111 34999049 34359073 33769204 32719464
32339727 32669814 33959781 35169407

[snownado]

The lightning and cracks of thunder have really gotten rowdy in the past 5 minutes...

[snownado]

Flash Flood Warning
TXC085-113-121-439-201245-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0135.251120T0943Z-251120T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
343 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southwestern Collin County in north central Texas...
Northern Dallas County in north central Texas...
Southeastern Denton County in north central Texas...
Tarrant County in north central Texas...

* Until 645 AM CST.

* At 343 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of
0.5 to 1.5 inches are forecast. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other
poor drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Plano, Garland, Irving, Grand
Prairie, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Richardson, Lewisville,
Allen, Flower Mound, Rowlett, Euless, Bedford, Grapevine, Haltom
City and Wylie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3285 9755 3296 9731 3312 9684 3327 9667
3320 9652 3291 9652 3256 9755

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

Schroeder

[Lagreeneyes03]

The lightning and cracks of thunder have really gotten rowdy in the past 5 minutes...

It's crazy. I am looking at the lightning strike map, a couple within half mile of my house, one looks like it hit right on 121 in the median. Probably a light pole. Another looks like it hit a home not too far away.

Oh if anyone's expecting Amazon deliveries this AM, most stations sent their early AM delivery drivers home. They can't even load with lightning in the area, so your packages will be delayed today. (hubs works for Amazon)

[snownado]

Radar estimates show a 4-5" bullseye in SW Collin and far NW Dallas Counties

[snownado]

DFW set a daily rainfall record of 1.66".

https://x.com/wfaaweather/status/199149 ... TCAsQ&s=19

[rwfromkansas]

Got 1.41 IMBY so not a bad start. Wow.

Rough night since my dogs bark at the thunder. Almost constant thunder early.

[Brent]

Apparently a record November hailstorm in Oklahoma just north of Stillwater last night beat it by a whole inch

[Wthrfan]

Apparently a record November hailstorm in Oklahoma just north of Stillwater last night beat it by a whole inch

We had some hail at my house in Edmond. Thankfully not as bad as the storm last September. I can't afford to replace my roof again!

[WeatherNewbie]

The lightning and cracks of thunder have really gotten rowdy in the past 5 minutes...

That was insanity. It sounded like cloud to ground strikes every few seconds for 10 minutes straight.

[gpsnowman]

Nice line punching through Tarrant County right now and looks to clip where I am at in Coppell. Bueno.

[wxman22]

Flash flood warning just issued for portions of DFW.Waves of rain are forming in West Central Texas and training along the boundary.

[Ntxw]

Over 3.20"+ of rainfall so far at DFW with another big batch coming in. Some areas higher locally. Looks like the 4-6" highlighted by the WPC is going to pan out for some.

[wxman22]

Over 3.20"+ of rainfall so far at DFW with another big batch coming in. Some areas higher locally. Looks like the 4-6" highlighted by the WPC is going to pan out for some.

And we still have the weekend storm coming also to add even more on top of what has already fallen.

[cheezyWXguy]

Interesting rotational signature sw of Combine in se Dallas county.

[Brent]

The Euro AI is still dumping the Arctic air all the way to the coast to begin December btw and has a winter storm setup for the northern areas. It's been very consistent with this idea apparently

I guess we're about to find out if the model is any good or not

[Golfisnoteasy75]

The Euro AI is still dumping the Arctic air all the way to the coast to begin December btw and has a winter storm setup for the northern areas. It's been very consistent with this idea apparently

I guess we're about to find out if the model is any good or not

We now have so many models to look at and which one is right, noone really knows. Regular euro used to be so much better than it is now imo

[Cpv17]

The Euro AI is still dumping the Arctic air all the way to the coast to begin December btw and has a winter storm setup for the northern areas. It's been very consistent with this idea apparently

I guess we're about to find out if the model is any good or not

We now have so many models to look at and which one is right, noone really knows. Regular euro used to be so much better than it is now imo

It’s weird how when they update models it actually makes them worse. Maybe not all the time, but it feels like a lot of the time they end up being worse. At least that’s what it seems like.

[Brent]

I mean I did hear the Euro AI was good during hurricane season

I know everyone likes to look at the GFS and I do too but the GFS was completely wrong for days during the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall since the 1930s

Well see it's definitely been hard to get rid of the above normal temps lately but the AI is dumping a lot of snow in New Mexico and Colorado