MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 191903Z - 192300Z
   
   OCCASIONALLY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WILL TRANSITION EAST-NORTHEAST
   ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN MI UPPER PENINSULA THIS
   AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS
   DURATION.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
   FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY
   CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING
   ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY
   ORIENTED WITH MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
   ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER IMPULSE. SIMILAR TO ONGOING TRENDS...LATEST
   RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EASTWARD TRANSITION OF THIS SNOW ACROSS FAR
   NORTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH 21Z-00Z.
   RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR DEPICT AMPLE OMEGA COINCIDENT
   WITH SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
   POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR LOCALIZED SNOW RATES FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...
   
   46619183 46659045 46948937 47158826 46288748 45968911
   45839056 45829145 46189195

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 192350Z - 200415Z
   
   MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
   ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL
   HOURS DURATION THROUGH 06Z.
   
   SNOW IS ONGOING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY...WITH
   SNOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE/SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   INTO THE PUEBLO VICINITY AND MUCH OF PUEBLO/CUSTER/HUERFANO
   COUNTIES. SCENARIO IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING
   EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE
   EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS IMPULSE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
   UPSLOPE/EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES IN LOWEST 1 KM AGL -- REFERENCE
   WSR-88D VWP FROM DENVER/PUEBLO -- AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED SNOW RATES
   ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINOUS EAST SLOPES/ADJACENT HIGH
   PLAINS THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR
   SUGGEST SEVERAL HOURS OF VERTICAL PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE
   OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH WELL-SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER. ALTHOUGH
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN IMMEDIATE
   VICINITY OF PUEBLO...A QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED UPON
   EFFECTIVE SATURATION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...
   
   39350486 39340377 38860368 38430412 37950437 37230475
   37540548 37980568 38370581 38750579 39210539

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 200539Z - 201145Z
   
   MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AND/OR
   DEVELOPING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO
   WESTERN KANSAS.  SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL
   HOURS THROUGH 12 UTC.
   
   AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY 12 UTC,
   FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COLORADO
   FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS.  THE WESTERN PORTION OF
   THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION AND PRECIPITATION
   ENDING BY 12 UTC. STRONG MOIST ASCENT IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
   GROWTH REGION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL
   HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 01/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   37040431 37760467 38530459 39140375 39380224 39390005
   37210129

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NRN MO...SERN NEB...SRN/CENTRAL/ERN IA
   AND NWRN/WCENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 201632Z - 202130Z
   
   A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HVY SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SCENTRAL NEB
   NEWD INTO WCENTRAL IA LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD AND EXTEND
   FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY NERN IA BY 21Z. HRLY RATES
   WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND MAY EXCEED 1 INCH/HR FOR A 1-2 HR PERIOD.
   FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW WILL
   OCCUR OVER NERN KS AND NRN MO...WITH MODERATE SNOW  LIKELY OVER
   SCENTRAL IA BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NWD AS
   SERN IA/WCENTRAL IL BEFORE 21Z. CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION
   WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH HRLY LIQUID EQUIV. RATES UP TO
   0.10 IN.
   
   LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS
   DEVELOPING OVER NCENTRAL KS INTO FAR SCENTRAL NEB. THIS FEATURE
   ALONG WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SCENTRAL KS
   HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASING TREND IN LOW LEVEL WAA/MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM NRN KS INTO WRN IA. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
   PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOCATED IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER /PER REGIONAL
   PROFILER DATA/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELY NARROW HVY SNOW
   BAND FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH 21Z. DRY AIR
   INITIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE WITH THE ONSET OF
   THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE BAND. WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING
   COEXISTENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER...AND WITH THE
   RELATIVELY SLOW NATURE OF THE BAND MOVEMENT...UP TO A 2 HR DURATION
   OF 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONTOGENETIC HEAVY
   SNOWFALL BAND MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO NERN IA BY MID
   AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF INCREASING MID LEVEL WAA OVER CENTRAL/ERN
   IA.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA...ALONG WITH ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER NERN KS
   INTO NRN MO AND SRN IA. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW LEVEL
   PRESSURE RISES OVER SRN IA/NCENTRAL MO. CONSEQUENTLY THE SFC
   FREEZING LINE HAS BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SWD OVER NRN MO/NERN KS. WITH
   THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT /CENTERED AROUND 850 MB/ MOST OF
   THE PRECIPITATION OVER NERN KS/NRN MO WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SLEET
   AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
   OVER NRN MO...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED RECENTLY...HRLY PRECIP
   RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS
   FAR NORTH AS SERN IA/WCENTRAL IL BEFORE 21Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   43019300 41849586 40279775 39939774 39179700 38699580
   38999339 40229085 40929045 42469129

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN IA...SRN/ERN WI...NRN IL...FAR NWRN
   IND...SWRN/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 202139Z - 210345Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NRN/CENTRAL IA INTO SRN WI AND EVENTUALLY
   WCENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI BY 03Z. SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL THROUGH 00Z...WHILE MOVING INTO SWRN
   AND CENTRAL LOWER MI FROM 01Z-03Z. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES WILL
   EXCEED 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH/HR RATES POSSIBLE OVER THE CHI
   METRO AREA NEWD INTO SWRN LOWER MI. A MIX OF SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE
   AS WELL...MAINLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AND OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
   IL/NWRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI.
   
   IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID LVL DRY SLOT THAT CONTINUES TO
   WORK SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO AND FAR SRN IA. NORTH OF THIS DRY
   SLOT...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN A VERY FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WAS AIDING IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM CENTRAL
   INTO NERN IA. THIS FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDS IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE LIFTING ENEWD WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND MOVE INTO SRN/ERN
   WI THROUGH 00Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WCENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NRN
   LOWER MI BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...STRONG WAA EVIDENT BY
   REGIONAL VWP DATA...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EVIDENT BY LIGHTNING
   STRIKES/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS SUGGESTS THAT
   MODERATE-HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP....ONCE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
   SATURATION OCCURS IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS OVER SCENTRAL/SERN WI AND
   NRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER NRN IL SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 800 MB THAT PRECIP SHOULD START
   AS SLEET AND MAY AGAIN CHANGE OVER TO SLEET BRIEFLY DURING THE
   HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM 00-03Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
   FORCING AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1-2
   INCHES/HR FOR BRIEF PERIODS ACROSS NRN IL/SERN WI FROM 23-02Z.
   STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION AND CONSEQUENT HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL
   BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MI FROM 01-03Z. IN ADDITION LOW
   LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER NRN IL AND SWRN
   LOWER MI/NWRN IND AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES SRN
   IL. THIS SHOULD AID IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND
   SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST ESTIMATE ON
   THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80/I-90 IN
   NRN IL AND NORTH OF I-94 IN SWRN LOWER MI.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   44488645 44208861 43549063 42779244 42149318 41469265
   41139154 41139032 41168963 41288840 41398715 41738631
   42028580 42728414 43658395 44498405 44668514

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MO/NRN ARK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202145Z - 202345Z
   
   CORRECTED TO CLARIFY 1ST SENTENCE/LAST PARAGRAPH
   
   AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/
   HIGH PLAINS REGION...MODELS INDICATE AN ASSOCIATE STRENGTHENING OF A
   WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OZARK
   PLATEAU.  THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATE EVENING...
   WHEN 500 MB SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO REACH 90+ KT.
   
   WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS ALREADY
   MIGRATING INTO/ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WITH CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION ONGOING IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST
   NORTHEAST.  GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN TO WARM SECTOR OF LOW...AND
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING LAGGING TO THE WEST...INHIBITION IS STILL
   TOO STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS
   COULD CHANGE BY 21/00-01Z...WITH POSSIBLE NARROW BROKEN SQUALL LINE
   DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS/WEST PLAINS MO AND
   RUSSELLVILLE AR AREAS.
   
   CAPE IS NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG...AND POTENTIAL
   FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SEEMS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE DOWNWARD
   MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT.  THIS COULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY AS IT
   SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN
   ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   37819256 38489204 39369098 38909013 37489084 36249207
   35429294 35599384 36839350

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 210552Z - 211145Z
   
   BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1-2 INCHES IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI
   OVERNIGHT. A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM
   FNT TO AZO MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE I-94
   CORRIDOR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM W TO E WITH
   TIME.
   
   CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
   TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NERN IND AS OF 05Z.
   ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS ERN LOWER
   MI INTO SWRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED SWWD INTO
   E-CNTRL IL.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
   DATA SHOW MAIN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FROM W-CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD TO THE
   CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE HOURLY SNOW RATES OF 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN
   REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE
   TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITHIN
   SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DEFORMATION ZONE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS BAND
   OF HEAVY SNOW. CORRESPONDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   DEEP...SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITE
   GROWTH VIA AGGREGATION.  MOREOVER...CONVECTIVE CHARACTER ALONG SRN
   EDGE OF PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY ENHANCE
   PRECIPITATION RATES.
   
   THROUGH 21/12Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM
   MKG AND BEH NEWD THROUGH LAN TO NEAR OR S OF BAX. HOURLY RATES WILL
   LIKELY PEAK AT 1-1.5 INCHES THOUGH SOME LOCAL RATES MAY EXCEED 2
   INCHES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
   
   42048483 41488742 42578806 44018673 44918372 44888216
   43778180 42258380

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN VA AND ERN WV
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 221834Z - 230030Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES OVER 0.05 IN. COULD DEVELOP OVER
   PORTIONS OF SWRN VA AND SERN WV...MAINLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND IMMEDIATE VALLEYS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
   21Z. INCREASING EXPECTATION OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
   21-00Z AS WET BULB EFFECTS PERSIST AND DIURNAL COOLING EFFECTS
   OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
   MAY SPREAD NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN VA AND THE WV PANHANDLE BY 00Z.
   FREEZING RAIN RATES WELL OVER 0.10 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
   00Z...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION.
   
   LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY
   PRECIPITATION OVER NERN TN AND ERN KY....AIDED BY STRONG LOW-MID
   LEVEL WAA /PER MORRISTOWN VWP DATA/. A SLIVER OF ELEVATED CAPE AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES /CENTERED AROUND 500 MB/ WAS SUPPORTING THIS
   EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS...SFC DATA SHOWS
   COLD/DRY AIR WAS DAMMED UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MTNS OF
   SERN WV/SWRN VA. RECENT SFC TRENDS SHOW THAT DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
   SLOWLY FILTER INTO WRN VA...WITH DEWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF
   THE AREA. DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS..SUFFICIENTLY
   STRONG WET-BULB COOLING AFFECTS WITH MODERATE RAIN MOVING INTO THE
   AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR SATURATION TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY /1-2
   HRS/ WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
   MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WET-BULB EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
   TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE SUB-FREEZING MARK OVER MUCH OF THE SRN
   SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF SWRN
   VA AND SERN WV BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED
   WARM LAYER STARTING JUST UNDER 1 KM...SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST
   ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /ABOVE 3000 FT/ SHOULD SEE
   ONLY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   37618090 38997943 39287911 39387856 39047808 38457810
   37667898 37037966 36967999 36928010 37008060 37338090

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA INTO SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221937Z - 222130Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   SOUTHEAST OF FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE
   ALLOWING FOR WEAK SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM
   SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING
   TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION STILL
   APPEARS PRESENT.
   
   HOWEVER...MODELS/MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GRADUAL MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WITH APPROACH
   OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LIFTING OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WILL
   WEAKEN CAP THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING/
   STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 21Z...
   ALONG LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS...SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST
   OF BATON ROUGE LA THROUGH AREAS EAST NORTHEAST OF MCCOMB MS.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION...AND AS SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
   BECOMES REALIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   WILL INCREASE.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
   
   30339093 31219070 31858993 31318935 30488962 29789003
   29579068 30019107

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN OH...WRN AND CENTRAL PA...ERN
   WV...WRN VA AND NRN MD
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 230057Z - 230630Z
   
   A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD FROM
   WRN VA/ERN WV INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NERN WV...WRN/CENTRAL PA...AND
   POSSIBLY NERN OH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE NRN EXTENT OF
   THE MIXED PRECIP IS FORECAST TO REACH GENERALLY THE NY/PA BORDER BY
   06Z...WITH MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS AREA
   LATER TONIGHT. HRLY QPF AMTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 0.05 IN...WITH
   ISOLATED 0.10 IN/HR AMOUNTS.
   
   BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 850-700
   MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NEWD AHEAD OF MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. 00Z SOUNDING FROM RNK INDICATES A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN
   PROFILE....WITH A 7000 FT DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE 1500 FT
   AGL. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THIS LAYER HAS LEAD TO MODERATE
   TO HVY PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN VA AND SERN WV OVER
   THE LAST FEW HOURS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST BULK OF LOW LEVEL
   VERTICAL MOTION SUPPORTING THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO NWRN/ERN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS
   THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS IN THESE AREAS.
   
   FURTHER NORTH...BOTH THE 00Z IAD/ILN SOUNDINGS HAD SIMILARLY DEEP
   ELEVATED WARM LAYERS /AROUND 4000 FT/...ALBEIT BASED AT DIFFERENT
   LEVELS. SFC CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL PA...NERN WV/NRN
   MD SUGGEST THAT WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AOB 32 F WITHIN
   A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
   THAT SUFFICIENT WET-BULB COOLING FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER
   NERN OH/SWRN PA...DUE TO THE RECENT TRENDS IN RISING DEWPTS AFTER
   THE PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO SRN OH. NONETHELESS...THE ELEVATED WARM
   LAYER DEPTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
   WRN/CENTRAL PA AND NRN MD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS /BEGINNING TO
   SHOW UP ON THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING/. WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WET-BULB
   BELOW 32F...FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
   P-TYPE OVER MOST OF SWRN/SCENTRAL PA AND NERN WV/NRN MD. DIMINISHING
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEPTH...SUGGEST A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
   EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS I-80 BY 03Z...WITH SLEET THE PRIMARY P-TYPE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-80 TOWARDS 06Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   37478010 37397932 38067844 38657770 39497699 40347635
   41187617 41707667 41777811 41687922 41548040 41218121
   40818212 40368221 40158183 40408104 40047992 39187938
   38927943 37748032

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN PA / NRN NJ / FAR SERN NY / SWRN
   NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 230647Z - 231145Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA...WITH
   MDT TO LOCALLY HVY SNOW DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN CT. SNOW OVER SERN
   PA WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES
   BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
   LAST FEW HOURS. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS BASED ON
   THE NAM AND RUC MODELS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN MOST PROBABLE TYPE IN
   ZONE BOUNDED BY JST TO AOO TO FIG TO UNV. HRLY FREEZING RAINFALL
   RATES AROUND 0.05" ARE ANTICIPATED SO SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE
   SIGNIFICANT ICING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO RAIN AFTER
   SUNRISE.
   
   FARTHER NE...PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER ERN PA AND NJ WILL CONTINUE
   TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEWD WITH VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
   DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND RUC INDICATE SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN PA
   AND NJ WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MDT TO HVY
   SNOWFALL WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW
   ZONE ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY AND WRN CT THROUGH 12Z.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...
   
   41357350 41247434 41267473 41347544 41277662 41217723
   40767777 40077816 39967877 40137897 40687893 41107907
   41447864 41837694 42057493 42187376 42037288 41637267

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY / NRN CT AND RI / SRN VT AND NH / SRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 231207Z - 231800Z
   
   MAXIMUM SNOW RATES OF 1.00-1.50 IN/HR APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
   MORNING HOURS. SNOW MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING
   OVER FAR SWRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND NEWD ON NOSE OF STRONG
   LOW LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION. W-E ORIENTED ZONE OF FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
   ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MD AREA. HEAVY SNOW IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
   PER HOUR APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN HRLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.10"
   UPSTREAM. IN ADDITION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
   THE UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS. GIVEN
   SOME CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SE AND WARMING ALOFT...PROFILES WILL BECOME
   FAVORABLE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING...AS INDICATED
   BY RUC AND NAM PTYPE ALGORITHMS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...
   
   44026970 44057148 43077324 42687471 41717492 41597372
   41977083 42887058

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ME AND PARTS OF NH
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 231818Z - 232215Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN
   19-20Z OVER ERN/SRN NH...AND BY 21Z OVER SWRN ME. HEAVY SNOW IS
   ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO DOWNEAST ME BETWEEN 18-20Z...BEFORE
   DIMINISHING OVER THIS AREA AROUND 22Z.
   
   STRONG WAA IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER AS EVIDENT BY THE BOSTON AND GRAY
   ME VWP/S AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER CAPE COD WERE
   SUPPORTING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF ERN NH
   INTO SWRN ME. CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
   ENEWD MOTION OF THE STRONGEST WAA ALONG THE 850-700 MB BAROCLINIC
   ZONE WILL TAKE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ENEWD ALONG THE
   REMAINDER OF SRN ME THROUGH 20Z. SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BECOME
   ENELY OR NELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO THE SURFACE LOW
   RESIDING IN THE GULF OF ME...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
   ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
   
   RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE WRN EDGE OF
   MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING WAS QUICKLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN NEW
   ENGLAND. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS WRN EDGE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
   FORCING WILL BRINGS IT TO THE NH/ME BORDER BY AROUND 20Z...AND TO
   THE ERN GULF OF ME/DOWNEAST ME BY 23Z. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
   UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE SUPPORT FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE
   700-500 MB LAYER WILL END AND SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH
   SIGNIFICANTLY.
   
   ..CROSBIE/GRAMS.. 01/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
   
   45196728 44857042 44307146 43467165 43187143 43137067
   43827001 44496814 44746729

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0547 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN NY/WRN AND CNTRL PA/WV
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 242347Z - 250445Z
   
   ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
   OROGRAPHIC ASCENT/LAKE EFFECT...
   
   LATEST WV/SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW POTENT JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE OH
   VALLEY. STRONG ASCENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS ENTIRE REGION GIVEN
   INCREASING CONVECTION/LIGHTNING OVER SW PA. INITIAL BAND OF SNOW NOW
   OVER WRN PA WILL MOVE BY FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
   MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN
   PARTICULAR...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV WILL LIKELY HAVE HEAVIER
   SNOWS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z AS THE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR
   SNOW.
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
   ZONES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
   VEER TO WLY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
   ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES FROM THE SFC-500MB ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CAA. EARLIER REPORT
   OF THUNDERSNOW AT PIT IS EVIDENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE
   SYSTEM.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   41597571 40067741 37808082 38328096 41137987 42717881
   43137762 44257576 43967460

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...THE CASCADE RANGE OF SRN WA / ORE INTO NRN CA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 281145Z - 281745Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ABOVE 3000-3500 FT MSL THIS MORNING.  THIS HEAVY SNOW WILL
   BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN
   WA/NRN ORE AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN ORE/NRN CA.
   
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   APPROACHING THE WA AND ORE COASTS WITH A RECENT BURST OF LIGHTNING
   ACTIVITY OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE ORE COAST.  INTENSE
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTANT STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE FRONT WHICH
   HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM E OF UIL TO E OF AST TO JUST E OF
   ONP AS OF 11Z.
   
   EXPECT THE ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
   MID-TROPOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION TO SPREAD INLAND BETWEEN
   12-15Z...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY ABOVE 3000-3500 FT
   MSL.  SNOW RATES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES PER HOUR AT THIS
   TIME...THOUGH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENT MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED
   RATES UPWARDS OF TWO AND A HALF TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR.  GIVEN
   GENERAL SEWD MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC
   FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
   HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN WA AND NRN ORE...WHILE THE HEAVY SNOW MAY
   WELL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ORE CASCADES
   INTO NRN CA.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...STO...SEW...PQR...EKA...
   
   41462348 43972285 46332246 47002221 47432155 46482075
   43622111 41572189 40682211 40562309

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1214 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH WRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 281814Z - 282045Z
   
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT
   FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN TX INTO WRN LA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF
   BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED.
   
   PRE-FRONTAL MCS WITH EMBEDDED LINES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION EXTENDS
   FROM NERN TX SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL TX.  A STRONG 50+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL
   JET WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ERN TX TODAY WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT
   FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S INTO SERN TX AND WRN LA.
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS STILL ONLY PARTIALLY
   MODIFIED WITH THE BEST MOISTURE EXISTING W OF A N-S ORIENTED
   BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN TX SSEWD INTO THE WRN GULF.
   MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND CLOUD BREAKS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW
   DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP LAYER
   AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. LEWP AND
   BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. OTHER MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR OF
   AHEAD OF THE LINE. MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN AN
   OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   29519629 30819531 31759413 31509291 30609255 29949307
   29509453 28989549

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 281852Z - 282115Z
   
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. SVR THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH LOW-END
   SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING TCU ALONG DRYLINE AND WITHIN
   SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING BEHIND THE DRYLINE FROM
   SRN KS INTO N TX AND DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME QUITE STEEP WITH NO CIN REMAINING. MUCAPE
   VALUES ARE CURRENTLY VERY WEAK...BUT MAY INCREASE IN A VERY NARROW
   ZONE E OF DRYLINE. WARM AND VEERED WLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE
   SUGGESTS CELLS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE
   NEWD ABOVE STABLE LAYER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
   WEAK...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING UPSTREAM
   SUGGEST HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST CELLS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   35529548 32479625 31969743 31899840 32149858 33039833
   34179804 36849776 39009771 39149726 38869585

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LA THROUGH EXTREME SERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282144Z - 282345Z
   
   THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
   TWO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT
   APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY
   UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OR
   ORGANIZATION.
   
   STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE
   HOURS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM NWRN LA INTO NERN TX...AND
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED. THETA-E
   ADVECTION ALONG THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME WARMING WITHIN
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
   MUCAPE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG THE LA COAST TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG
   FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NRN LA. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND INFLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF RICHER
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING LOW TOPPED LINES AND POSSIBLY A
   SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ABILITY FOR
   PERSISTENT UPRIGHT CONVECTION. THE SQUALL LINE MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE
   WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ALONG N-S BOUNDARY OVER E
   CNTRL LA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEST WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE
   WEATHER SHOULD BE BEFORE THE MERGERS OCCUR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE MERGING PROCESS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   30559373 31829338 33259251 33099121 31489165 30269215

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0658 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LA THROUGH EXTREME SERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 290058Z - 290300Z
   
   THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
   TWO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT
   APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY
   UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OR
   ORGANIZATION.
   
   STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE
   HOURS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM NWRN LA INTO NERN TX...AND
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED. THETA-E
   ADVECTION ALONG THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME WARMING WITHIN
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
   MUCAPE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG THE LA COAST TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG
   FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NRN LA. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND INFLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF RICHER
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING LOW TOPPED LINES AND POSSIBLY A
   SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ABILITY FOR
   PERSISTENT UPRIGHT CONVECTION. THE SQUALL LINE MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE
   WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ALONG N-S BOUNDARY OVER E
   CNTRL LA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEST WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE
   WEATHER SHOULD BE BEFORE THE MERGERS OCCUR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE MERGING PROCESS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   30559373 31829338 33259251 33099121 31489165 30269215

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 290712Z - 290845Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
   APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  THOUGH A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER
   STORM INTENSIFICATION.
   
   AS OF 07Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE
   FROM NWRN AL SWWD THROUGH SRN MS /NEAR PIB/ INTO S-CNTRL LA.  MORE
   ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF
   HOUR E OF THIS LINE OVER SERN LA WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED
   APPROXIMATELY 25 NW MSY.  AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   SBCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG /PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/. OF MORE
   IMPORTANCE IS THE STRONG WIND FIELDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON THE
   SLIDELL VWP WHERE LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
   FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS/.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT /PER SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES/ IS OCCURRING WELL TO
   THE NE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
   MASS AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS.  A
   SIMILAR TYPE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS FAR SRN
   MS INTO PERHAPS FAR SWRN AL EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONT
   /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR PIB
   SEWD TO W OF MOB/ CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   29579153 30469087 31008977 30958886 30748815 29898808
   29068982 29079117