June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

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wx247
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#81 Postby wx247 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:29 pm

Take care badger.
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

#82 Postby badger70 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:34 pm

City sirens had gone off. WILL-AM reported spotters or the public seeing funnel cloud and hail.

I'm in my safer location with my laptop :)
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Re:

#83 Postby badger70 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:35 pm

wx247 wrote:Take care badger.


Thank you very kindly.
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

#84 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:45 pm

badger70 wrote:Time to hit the bathtub...


As a good Badger, i assume, you own a well equipped Tornadobunker...
Last edited by Bunkertor on Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#85 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:46 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NCENTRAL/NERN OK...SCENTRAL/SERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 440...

VALID 040235Z - 040430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 440 CONTINUES.

CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AROUND 40-45 KTS
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 440 THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS. DMGG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS GIVEN THE OUTFLOW
DOMINANT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM
N-S ACROSS ERN KS INTO NERN OK...WITH MUCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS RECENTLY DEVELOP DUE TO NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS
AND A WELL DEFINED GUST FRONT HAS DEVELOPED WITH A SVR CONVECTIVE
LINE OVER SCENTRAL KS/NCENTRAL OK. RECENT STORM MOTIONS FROM 40-45
KTS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DMGG WIND GUSTS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM AROUND
45 KTS/ WILL ALSO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. THE MAIN SVR THREAT ACROSS WW
440 SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE WITH THIS LINE AS IT ADVANCES INTO
THE EDGE OF WW 440 BY AROUND 04Z. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM SGF
INDICATED OVER 150 J/KG OF MUCINH...THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED COLD POOL/GUST FRONT MAY SUPPORT A SVR THREAT EAST OF WW
440. THEREFORE PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN KS/SWRN MO WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A NEW WW BEFORE 04Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2008


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

38059787 37639822 37499761 36829750 36479742 36829600
36819519 36839450 36839385 37549330 38169337 38549373
38339539 38809538
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

#86 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:49 pm

15 tornado reports so far.
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#87 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:50 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN SECTIONS OF IND/OH AND WRN WV

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 441...

VALID 040247Z - 040415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 441 CONTINUES.

ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS HAS LIFTED
N OF I-70 IN INDIANA WITH A BROAD BELT OF WSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW BLOWING
NORMAL TO THE BOUNDARY. STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION WAS FOCUSED
OVER IND AND IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR/E OF
KIND. FAST WNW FLOW ALOFT IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS WAS THEN ADVECTING
THE STORMS DOWNSTREAM INTO SERN OHIO AND THE WRN LOWLANDS OF WV
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP. UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WERE QUITE STEEP /7 DEG C PER KM/ AND GIVEN AMPLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL.

HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE ALONG SRN EDGE
OF THE BAND OF STORMS...NAMELY ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL OH AND MAYBE INTO
THE WRN LOWLAND OF WV. OTHERWISE...INHIBITION OWING TO DIURNAL
COOLING MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.

LATER TONIGHT...WRN EDGE/GENERATING ZONE FOR THE TSTMS MAY ACTUALLY
LIFT NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER IL.
LOW-LEVELS WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF SRN IND AND SWRN OH
AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DMGG WIND/ISOLD TORNADO PRODUCING MCS LATER
TONIGHT.

..RACY.. 06/04/2008


ATTN...WFO...RLX...ILN...IND...

40298675 39458126 38688203 39218650
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#88 Postby wx247 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:51 pm

Oh goodie... this cold pool may be stronger than the CIN. :grr:

Time for me to get things ready in case the storms move this way.
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#89 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:51 pm

NOT GOOD:

0222 10 SW RUSHVILLE RUSH IN 3951 8558 SEVERAL HOMES HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED AROUND THE TOWN OF MOSCOW. POLICE REPORT UNKNOWN NUMBER OF INJURIES AND NUMEROUS PEOPLE MISSING. (IND
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

#90 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:00 pm

No it's not.

Neither is this:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
951 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

ILC019-040315-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-080604T0315Z/
CHAMPAIGN-
951 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
CHAMPAIGN COUNTY...

AT 947 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
SEYMOUR...OR ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF CHAMPAIGN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH
.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
SAVOY...
URBANA...
THOMASBORO...
ST. JOSEPH...
FLATVILLE...
ROYAL...
OGDEN...
SIDNEY...
GIFFORD...
HOMER...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 227 AND 246.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 182.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 197.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

LAT...LON 3999 8847 4015 8847 4035 8795 4023 8794
4023 8795 4020 8795 4017 8794 4002 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 252DEG 26KT 4011 8833
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#91 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:02 pm

That is a radar-indicated tornado...it says mets detecting it.
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

#92 Postby badger70 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:04 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:No it's not.

Neither is this:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
951 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

ILC019-040315-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-080604T0315Z/
CHAMPAIGN-
951 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
CHAMPAIGN COUNTY...

AT 947 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
SEYMOUR...OR ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF CHAMPAIGN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH
.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
SAVOY... URBANA... THOMASBORO... ST. JOSEPH... FLATVILLE... ROYAL... OGDEN... SIDNEY... GIFFORD... HOMER...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 227 AND 246.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 182.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 197.


WILL-AM radio mentioned that a few minutes ago. The next few minutes should tell.... They've been saying that the rotation signature has been fading, but the storms are tending to cycle....

Edit: thanks for the heads-up!
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

#93 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:28 pm

No problem Badger70, glad you're apparently ok.
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#94 Postby wx247 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:46 pm

I will likely be heading to my grandparent's home in just a few minutes. These storms to my west are really strong and I live in an area suceptible to high winds.
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

#95 Postby badger70 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:48 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:No problem Badger70, glad you're apparently ok.


Yes. There was quite the electrical storm constantly illuminating the sky and light rain. It should have been easy to spot a tornado had there been one.
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Re:

#96 Postby badger70 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:53 pm

wx247 wrote:I will likely be heading to my grandparent's home in just a few minutes. These storms to my west are really strong and I live in an area suceptible to high winds.


Hope that's not Kansas. They just got radar indicated tor warn. If you're going I-44 west, it looks fine.
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

#97 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:54 pm

That seems to be a developing derecho moving into Missouri from Kansas...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC021-037-040430-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0317.080604T0336Z-080604T0430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1036 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT.

* AT 1031 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
WALNUT TO 21 MILES WEST OF SHERMAN TO 28 MILES WEST OF FAULKNER...
MOVING EAST AT 74 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WALNUT AND MCCUNE BY 1050 PM CDT.
WEST MINERAL AND CARONA BY 1055 PM CDT.
WEIR...TREECE...SCAMMON AND GIRARD BY 1100 PM CDT.
ENGLEVALE...PITTSBURG...FRONTENAC AND BAXTER SPRINGS BY 1105 PM
CDT.

THE TOWNS OF SHERMAN...SHERWIN...HALLOWELL...GREENBUSH...FAULKNER...
BRAZILTON...MELROSE...STIPPVILLE...SKIDMORE AND ROSELAND ARE ALSO IN
THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.
MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ARE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND
MAY BE OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND SEEK
SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3765 9509 3768 9463 3699 9462 3699 9507
3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 267DEG 64KT 3755 9542 3731 9533
3706 9541

$$

BARJENBRUCH
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#98 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:59 pm

New watch, a severe thunderstorm watch, maybe PDS?
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 11:02 pm

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 20 MILES EAST OF VICHY MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 437. WATCH NUMBER 437 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1100 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 439...WW 440...WW 441...

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WITH BOWING CHARACTERISTICS IS
MOVING EWD/ENEWD ACROSS SE KS AT 45-50 KT. WIND GUSTS OF 60-90 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS CONVECTION THE PAST FEW HOURS
...AND IT
APPEARS THE FORCING ALONG THE GUST FRONT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
CONVECTION AND A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER SW MO. ELSEWHERE...OUTFLOW FROM A
SEPARATE BAND OF STORMS IN WRN MO MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE SE
KS MCS...WHILE AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE FARTHER NE
IN AREAS OF MO NOT IMPACTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26045.


...THOMPSON
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US

#100 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 03, 2008 11:08 pm

That watch should have been PDS with numbers like this:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC011-021-037-MOC011-097-145-217-040500-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0318.080604T0402Z-080604T0500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1102 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHERN BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHERN VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

* AT 1101 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HEPLER TO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ROSELAND TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TREECE...MOVING EAST
AT 64 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WEIR...SCAMMON...COLUMBUS AND CHEROKEE BY 1110 PM CDT.
TREECE...PITTSBURG...FRONTENAC AND ENGLEVALE BY 1115 PM CDT.
MULBERRY...BAXTER SPRINGS...ARCADIA AND MINDENMINES BY 1120 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF STIPPVILLE...SKIDMORE...RINGO...POLK...PAWNEE STATION...
LONE OAK...FARLINGTON...CHICOPEE...YALE AND NEUTRAL ARE ALSO IN THE
PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 31.

TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 TO 90 MPH WITH
THESE STORMS.


THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.
MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ARE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND
MAY BE OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND SEEK
SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3777 9508 3789 9407 3729 9409 3729 9406
3719 9406 3678 9407 3678 9463 3698 9463
3699 9498 3705 9486 3761 9484 3761 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 264DEG 56KT 3771 9494 3734 9492
3685 9513

$$

BARJENBRUCH
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