Severe weather outbreak: June 17 - 19

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CrazyC83
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#81 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:34 pm

Oh my goodness...that is just terrifying...
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#82 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:36 pm

NE of the Hamilton NE cell...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
929 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 924 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HAMPTON...OR 17 MILES WEST OF YORK...AND MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BRADSHAW AROUND 950 PM CDT.
BENEDICT AROUND 1010 PM CDT.

A TORNADO WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY
UNTIL 945 PM CDT.
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#83 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:37 pm

HAMILTON NE-
935 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 934 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
HAMPTON...OR ABOUT 16 MILES WEST OF YORK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.


THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAMPTON AROUND 940 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
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#84 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:38 pm

NWS Hastings does not mention an emergency.
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#85 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:38 pm

CHICKASAW IA-
934 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CHICKASAW COUNTY...


AT 934 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BOYD...OR 6 MILES
SOUTH OF NEW HAMPTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FREDERICKSBURG AROUND 945 PM...
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Re: Re:

#86 Postby badger70 » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:39 pm

Bunkertor wrote:
badger70 wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:That was a severestudios cam showing an enormous debris cloud.


I just popped in over there. Check this out:

severestudios

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR AURORA, NE. Large tornado moving NE Hwy 34 toward Aurora! Take cover now! Streaming it live on 3 cams! (6/17 9:16)6 minutes ago from TweetDeck


That might have been it. I was astonished, the stream went off from some 100 viewers to zero. Yes.


I'm watching Chris rice's cam over there. Looks like he's intercepting near Hampton in a few minutes. Oh, cars are pulled over on to the side of the road now.
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#87 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:39 pm

MITCHELL IA-HOWARD IA-
934 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HOWARD AND NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES...

AT 931 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR MCINTIRE...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF OSAGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH. THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS STORM AND HAS HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO WITH INJURIES.
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#88 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:41 pm

MADISON NE-PIERCE NE-
937 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES...


AT 936 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BATTLE CREEK...OR
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE TORNADO INCLUDE...NORFOLK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED HALF DOLLAR
SIZE HAIL 6 MILES NORTH OF BATTLE CREEK. DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
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#89 Postby Siberian Express » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:44 pm

What a time for my broadband to peter out.....
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#90 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:45 pm

Hamilton county Nebraska tornado warning has expired non forward *have been issued at this time.
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#91 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:47 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA

946 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
NORTHERN STANTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 945 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL AREAS JUST SOUTH OF NORFOLK AND STANTON
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#92 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:54 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

1052 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DILLON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
EASTERN MARLBORO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT

* AT 1051 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF
DUNBAR...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF BENNETTSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
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#93 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:00 pm

MADISON NE-STANTON NE-
957 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
STANTON AND EASTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 956 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF
NORFOLK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.


LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE TORNADO INCLUDE...STANTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
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#94 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:01 pm

GREENE PA-MARSHALL WV-
1057 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT FOR MARSHALL
AND GREENE COUNTIES...

AT 1056 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NETTLE HILL...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.


* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROCKLICK... LONE OAK... GLEN EASTON...
CAMERON... RYERSON STATION... BUZZ...
ROGERSVILLE... WAYNESBURG...
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#95 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:07 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

1106 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FLORENCE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
EASTERN DARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN MARLBORO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT

* AT 1103 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MONT CLARE...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTH OF
BENNETTSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
MONT CLARE BY 1120 PM...
MECHANICSVILLE BY 1130 PM...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
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#96 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:09 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1108 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN WETZEL COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL PRESTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
MONONGALIA COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1215 AM EDT

* AT 1107 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DENVER
HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DENVER HEIGHTS... CAMERON... KNOB FORK...
LITTLETON... HUNDRED... ROUND BOTTOM...
EARNSHAW... BUZZ... WADESTOWN...
METZ... WANA... MANNINGTON...
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#97 Postby Dave » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:10 pm

People...that's it! I've got to get up and see if my legs still work..and take a break. What a night.
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#98 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 6:49 am

Moderate risk again today - and tomorrow!
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Re: Severe weather: June 17 - 19

#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 6:49 am

SPC AC 180601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN...NRN AND CNTRL
IA...SWRN WI THROUGH NRN IL INTO NRN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...ERN TN VALLEY...CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH SERN STATES. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE WEST...AND PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
APPROACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL EJECT NEWD...SUPPRESSING THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THROUGH NWD
PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE SLOWED BY ONGOING CONVECTION. THE
EJECTING IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE
SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
A DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SRN NEB.


...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NORTH OF WARM FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WHERE LOW LEVEL
JET INTERSECTS BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD DURING
THE DAY. A RESERVOIR OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL PERSIST IN WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE A WARM EML WILL OVERSPREAD A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 70F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
RESULTING IN 4000+ J/KG MLCAPE.

IN WAKE OF EARLY ACTIVITY...A CAP RESULTING FROM THE WARM EML WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND AS DEEPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FARTHER EAST ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE MOIST...UNSTABLE INFLOW FROM THE
WARM SECTOR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. BULK SHEAR OF 50+ KT WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THIS REGION...HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL BE MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
ONE OR MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.

...OH VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY AREA...

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW
ALOFT OF 40-50 KT WILL RESULT IN BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. STORMS
MAY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

DIABATIC HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION THURSDAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN VICINITY OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL WEAKEN CAP. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. MODEST
UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE SURFACE-700 MB
LAYER WILL SUPPORT ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 06/18/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1149Z (7:49AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Re: Severe weather: June 17 - 19

#100 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 6:50 am

SPC AC 180540

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF IA/MO...EWD
INTO OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO WV/WRN PA...

...MID MS/OH VALLEY...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY2 PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY REGION AS STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ATOP A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A POTPOURRI OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES EARLIER TRENDS OF A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS MN/IA/MO DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. NAM IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
500MB FLOW IS STRONGER...ON THE ORDER OF 70KT...THAN THE GFS. EVEN
SO BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE
OF SHORTWAVE...INITIALLY OVER MN/IA...POSSIBLY BY 18Z...THEN SWD
INTO MO AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THESE UPDRAFTS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE AS BOTH LARGE SCALE ASCENT/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3500 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN EXCESS OF 50KT AHEAD OF ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. ALTHOUGH WARM
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY DRIVE AN MCS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG/NORTH
OF WARM FRONT ACROSS WI/MI...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR
WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND PERHAPS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUPERCELL
CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN RAPIDLY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER THEN MATURE INTO A POTENTIAL DAMAGING SQUALL LINE
WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OR MULTIPLE MCS/S...AS SPEED MAX EJECTS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD WRN PA/WV BY 20/12Z. GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING...DEEPENING WLY FLOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT DAMAGING SQUALL LINE/S COULD RACE ACROSS IND/OH AND
POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN PA/WV
BEFORE SUNRISE. LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE
NOTED WITH THESE SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH
INSTABILITY AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

DOWNSTREAM...NAM/GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
FROM MD INTO VA. GFS DESTABILIZES WRN PORTIONS OF VA CONSIDERABLY
BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE NAM MAINTAINS WEAKER LAPSE RATES...POSSIBLY
DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND OVERTURNING FROM EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION.
FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
IF THEY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
OH VALLEY MCS TO APPROACH THIS REGION LATE.

...PLAINS...

FARTHER SW...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL REMOVE INHIBITION
ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK FRIDAY. SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S...AND WITH PWAT VALUES
POSSIBLY ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES...MODEST SWLY FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 06/18/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1150Z (7:50AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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