Texas Spring 2012

[Tireman4]

And just as I thought. I swear it is like a sauna at 79 degrees out there. Shoot. 7 miles in 52:30, but I swear, I am having to get ready for summer runs, not March. Sigh.
Yeah its been ridiculous. Today wasn't as bad but was still brutal. Feels like at least 85F but its only 74 degrees!


Today was 52:42 and I swear I was going to die. I am switching to tomorrow morning to see if that makes a difference. My body usually acclimatizes to this heat, as it were, but usually this is a late April thing...not mid March.

[Texas Snowman]

I refuse to turn on my central air...in March!

[weatherdude1108]

Just saw the "Special Weather Statement"

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-151830-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
637 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WHEN INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST...THAT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...IN A SIMILAR WAY TO THE
WEATHER SYSTEMS IN JANUARY...FEBRUARY AND EARLIER THIS MONTH.

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO WEST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281...AND NEAR ONE INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES NEAR
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.


$$

[wxman57]

I refuse to turn on my central air...in March!

Sweat inside your house if you want. My AC has been on at least a few times each week for the past month. It's probably on for good now (with any luck). Sure, I like it hot outside for my bike rides, but I like to reduce the humidity in the house below 100% - that's what the AC does this time of year.

Unfortunately, we may see another cold front move through next Wednesday, cooling temps into the low 50s along with more heavy rain. Latest guidance has the system moving off to our east by the following weekend, though. Good for outdoor activities.

[weatherdude1108]

Newest drought outlook as of this morning. Looks like most of Texas is predicted to see relief over the next few months. Can't happen soon enough!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/e ... ought.html

[Rgv20]

Brownsville early morning discussion...Early next week things might get interesting

COLD FRONT OR AT LEAST A PACIFIC FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ON
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OR OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH
SHARP DRYING TAKING PLACE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. POPS WERE
INCREASED ACROSS THE CWA FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL MANY DAYS
OUT...WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN VIGILANCE FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
SHEAR PROFILE FOR A POSSIBLE WINDOW OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM.

[Portastorm]

It appears that the idea of next week's system stalling or moving very slowly has faded from view. Although, it seems the 0z CMC and especially the 0z GFS (notice the low getting hung up a bit in NE Texas) are slower and less progressive than the 0z Euro. Nevertheless, it does look like we stand to pick up more beneficial rainfall. Nice to see the prognosis for drought relief mentioned above.

[wxman57]

It appears that the idea of next week's system stalling or moving very slowly has faded from view. Although, it seems the 0z CMC and especially the 0z GFS (notice the low getting hung up a bit in NE Texas) are slower and less progressive than the 0z Euro. Nevertheless, it does look like we stand to pick up more beneficial rainfall. Nice to see the prognosis for drought relief mentioned above.

My part of Houston (SW) can't take any more rain right now. It was so wet last weekend that a duck actually landed in my back yard. Cats were going nuts looking out the back window as they'd never seen a black-bellied whistling duck before. Just 1/2 inch of rain was flooding my street because there was no place for it to go. I'm considering either planting a crop of rice in my back yard or maybe starting a crawfish farm. Unfortunately, I've developed a shellfish allergy in the past 5 years, so I may opt for the rice paddy. I'd like to give my share of next week's rain to central and west Texas.

00Z model runs had a more progressive pattern next week, shoving the upper low to our east after one round of rain. Not so good for central or west Texas, but better than no rain for them.

[cycloneye]

I didn't know in which thread I would post this NOAA Spring Outlook,but I decided that most of the state of Texas has been thru a severe drought for the past year and it was important to the folks that live in that state to see what forecast is expected for the spring months.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html

An excerpt from discussion:

“Recent rainfall has helped lessen the drought in eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and interior Louisiana, but the historic magnitude of this prolonged drought means that recovery will be slow,” said David Brown, Ph.D., director, NOAA Southern Region Climate Services. “Drought is now encompassing parts of the West and Southwest making conditions more favorable for wildfires.”

The 2011 drought had significant economic impacts especially in Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico. If the drought persists as predicted, it will likely result in an active wildfire season, continued stress on crops and livestock due to low water levels, and an expansion of water conservation measures.

[Ntxw]

Canadian is still very aggressive for west, central, and north Texas. 12z GFS was very bullish especially for the eastern half of the state. May need some scuba gear for some parts next week! HPC is only barely in day 5 forecast, but already showing signs from them of a very wet scenario. Euro is wet too but probably more progressive and has seperate waves of rain for different areas before the main push.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

More rain the better right now. I dont mind a bit of a drought in the summer time to get rid of the skeeters so bring it on.

[somethingfunny]

This is strange, the Euro being the most progressive model and the GFS/CMC cutting off the low for several days.

Did the models get updated or something?

[Ntxw]

0z HPC forecast to 5 days. It will probably trend a bit more upwards as the days draw closer, especially central Texas imo. There is potential for some severe weather by just glimpsing at the models. Perhaps someone skilled can go into detail with this matter.



SPC severe outlook

[weatherdude1108]

0z HPC forecast to 5 days. It will probably trend a bit more upwards as the days draw closer, especially central Texas imo. There is potential for some severe weather by just glimpsing at the models. Perhaps someone skilled can go into detail with this matter.



SPC severe outlookO

Bob Rose mentioned that in his blog.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html


Forecasters continue to monitor evolution of a large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere across the western US.  This trough is forecast to push inland along the West Coast late Friday, turning southeast to the southern Rockies and the southwestern US Saturday into Sunday.  Today’s forecast solutions generally agree the trough will slowly track east into Texas Monday into Wednesday.  Beyond Wednesday, there’s quite a bit of uncertainty in the path of the upper trough as it becomes cut off from the Polar Jet Stream.
 
Sunday night into Monday, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas as the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable out ahead of the upper trough.  Rain showers look to increase across the coastal plains region late Monday into Monday night.
 
A Pacific cold front associated with the large trough of low pressure is forecast to push out of West Texas early Tuesday, tracking towards the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.  Atmospheric conditions currently appear favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms out ahead of and along the cold front.  This threat area extends as far east as the Interstate 35 corridor.  Severe weather threats appear to primarily be large hail and damaging winds.

[WeatherGuesser]

SVR WW 0078 in effect for SW TX, so maybe somebody will get some rain.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0078.html

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

This humidity is awful Trying to run in this today was really tough-Never have been so ready for Monday to get here

[Portastorm]

Latest QPF seems to be increasing rainfall totals for my area of the state, looking like somewhere between 2.5-3.0 inches of rain if the 0z progs verify.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

[aggiecutter]

Reed Timmer thinks there will be a major tornado outbreak on Monday for parts of Texas and Oklahoma.
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=9 ... 6805519168

[Tireman4]

This humidity is awful Trying to run in this today was really tough-Never have been so ready for Monday to get here

Amen..too much too soon for me...

[Ntxw]

Models have followed the Euro in the progressive nature. For severe weather watch out for the supercells ahead of the big line. NW Tx down to Central has potential and eventually SE Texas but that should be more linear in nature. After that dry air kicks in and lows go back to the 40s and highs in the 60s, much better running weather for those folks

A little note: There is a certain model (I will not name for certain reasons cough winter over cough) that has a small pocket of cold air aloft in NE Texas at the end of this storm. Will it become of anything? No, but hey stranger things have happened...