Tornadoes in the Dallas area - April 3

[Dave]

(7:37 PM) SHV: 1 NW Winnsboro [Franklin Co, TX] broadcast media reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:45 PM CDT -- numerous trees reported down across highway 11 northwest of winnsboro.

[Dave]

Going to take off & get some sleep, looks like our storms won't be in here until after midnight/early morning hours. Activity starting up across central & northern IL now so it should be awhile. Take care everyone down south tonight!

[HurricaneBill]

Texas has not seen an (E)F4 since 1999.

[Texas Snowman]

Texas has not seen an (E)F4 since 1999.

I'd say the Forney storm is EF-3/EF-4. Haven't seen any footage out of the Royse City area (same storm) but media reports are that a number of homes were severely damaged. Maybe even a few flattened.

[CrazyC83]

I heard it lifted before Greenville.

0 fatalities from extreme tornadoes, poorly forecast in a heavily populated area? Obviously either everyone did things right at the action stage, or that was just pure luck.

[Texas Snowman]

It's a good thing. Check out the debris field just down the road from Greenville near Royce City:

https://p.twimg.com/ApmPjLwCIAAUWAq.jpg

"@DFWscanner: "Wow. RT @DavidSchechter: DEBRIS FIELD: Tornado leaves wide path of destruction near Royce City. http://bit.ly/HRnosm"

[CrazyC83]

That looks like at least EF3 damage there.

I think the most stunning statistic is that NO ONE was killed.

[Texas Snowman]

Absolutely.

Don't have any idea how many structures were damaged in Cleburne, Kennedale, Forney, Royce City, Mesquite, and rural areas.

But from Arlington and Lancaster alone, the number of structures damaged is reportedly 400+.

And there have been no reported fatalities so far from what appears to me (and I'm untrained to be sure) to be plenty of EF-2 damage, some EF-3 damage, and perhaps even some EF-4 damage.

[Ntxw]

I heard it lifted before Greenville.

0 fatalities from extreme tornadoes, poorly forecast in a heavily populated area? Obviously either everyone did things right at the action stage, or that was just pure luck.

Probably a little bit of both. The areas hit are not unfamiliar with tornadoes (Lancaster, Arlington, SE Dallas etc). Also often times we worry that a tornado hits a population center (rightfully so) but in this case there was extensive media coverage and areas/streets/neighborhoods are well documented on television which aided no doubt in people taking cover quickly unlike rural locations in the midwest and south where everything was basically storm chaser word or the nws where you don't really see what happens until after. Imo Dallas and Oklahoma City metros are the best prepared for these type of events that are large cities.

No doubt some damage looks at least Ef-3, would be surprised if it was lower for some of the hardest hit locations.

[Texas Snowman]

BTW, had a very good friend who was in the Wal-Mart in Sulphur Springs as that tornado approached town from the SW. They were herded into the store's safe area.

Afterwards, he said there were reports of some damage in the northern outskirts of town near the hospital and the airport. May have been a tractor dealership hit hard.

And there were strong radar indicated circulations noted near DeKalb and Mt. Pleasant among other places.

Probably won't hear of all of the damage until morning as news trickles in from the more rural areas.

[Texas Snowman]

Probably a little bit of both. The areas hit are not unfamiliar with tornadoes (Lancaster, Arlington, SE Dallas etc). Also often times we worry that a tornado hits a population center (rightfully so) but in this case there was extensive media coverage and areas/streets/neighborhoods are well documented on television which aided no doubt in people taking cover quickly unlike rural locations in the midwest and south where everything was basically storm chaser word or the nws where you don't really see what happens until after.

No doubt some damage looks at least Ef-3, would be surprised if it was lower for some of the hardest hit locations.

I think you also have to add in the fact that last year's horrific tornado hits probably have caused every one to take tornado warnings a little bit more seriously this year.

And while - in my opinion - SPC and Ft Worth NWS didn't do a great job of forecasting today's outbreak in advance, once the actual events started to unfold this afternoon, I think the warnings were hoisted with great urgency.

Think I saw somewhere on Twitter where there was an average lead time today of 26 minutes. Can't remember where I saw that, but if true, that undoubtedly helped save lives too.

[jasons2k]

Looks like all systems are a go for an active night for SE Texas as well. Stay safe and keep us posted as things develop at your location.

[Texas Snowman]

Forney tornado as it passed through a residential area:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaaajQwbiys&[/youtube]

[Texas Snowman]

Ok, I'll throw this question out:

Given the rapid spin-up of these storms today and the fact that they were spitting down multiple tornadoes for hours, how did SPC and local NWS all but strike out in giving advance notice that an outbreak like this might be forthcoming?

What did they miss, if anything?

[katheria]

I live in garland work in at plano/richardson border.

was at work when this came through

Plano/Richard area around 75/George Bush Tollway (i-90)
driving home all the way to northeast Garland/Rowlett border
I saw no damage at all.
hubby was at home said just got dark thunder lighting and rain, no hail or bad wind ( got lucky once again)

I have family and friends all over the dfw metroplex
i have talked to them all and will post anymore updates that i get

My mother lives in arlington, no damage at her house
Power is out completely for the city of pantego (about 2 miles from 1-20) and parts of arlington
she drove around some around the area,she had to pickup my grandmother from the hospital. She always takes backroads anyways to go anywhere.

1-20/green oaks some trees down, power lines down across the road from what she saw, looks like the tornado traveled down i-20 and then headed northeast lifted and then hit the area close to six flags
there is a lot of damage in the 360/ ave k area
she did take some pics,
she couldnt tell if Six Flags got hit or not

they are only open right now on the weekends

Forney:

My Family in Law lives at hwy 80 and 548 across the hwy about 3 miles from where it touched down

The tornado hit a new subdivision behind the walmart and the school.

they have a friend over there, she lost the roof of her house and cars are thrown everywhere. all trees are down.
there have been 10 -20 rescues and many injuries
the school districts here did not release the children because of the storms, thank god for that or there could have been many more injuries.


Royce City:
this area is still pretty rural in alot of areas
i spoke to jennifer she has video (cell phone)and will send it to me when she can
not sure of any damage and the tornado was going across a open field about 5 miles west of 1-30

lancaster:

serveral of my co workers live in this area
i sure i will hear more about it tomorrow from that area

ive heard of damage in garland close to centerville/northwest hwy area and around centerville/duck creek area
i will check it out this weekend and take pics
this area is around 8 miles from me

i will also being going to arlington this weekend to help my mother with some errands
i will take my camera


Addison, supposedly a tornado touched down there
havent heard anything else


Channel 8 News will be doing a hour long special tonight
http://www.wfaa.com
should be able to watch the broadcast over the net

i have heard the confirmed count is 12 tornadoes in dallas/ft worth area
this is unconfirmed thou

[Ntxw]

Ok, I'll throw this question out:

Given the rapid spin-up of these storms today and the fact that they were spitting down multiple tornadoes for hours, how did SPC and local NWS all but strike out in giving advance notice that an outbreak like this might be forthcoming?

What did they miss, if anything?

Many of the models pointed out a line of thunderstorms would sweep through. Unlike last week, today had a warm front boundary stalled around I-30. This was the mechanism that allowed supercells to form ahead of the squall. Instability was always high (same as last week) but question was would storms form ahead in the unstable air. Unfortunately it did, it's hard sometimes to see these boundaries ahead of time. I'm not sure if it was or not but the MCS that went into east Texas the other day might have left that boundary and areas that were close but didn't get any rain were ripe. I think it would've been a hard forecast for both the SPC and NWS ahead of time.

[katheria]

http://www.wfaa.com/news/weather/Grandmother-hangs-on-to-grandson-in-Forney-tornado-winds-146022335.html?gallery=y&img=0&c=y#/news/weather/Grandmother-hangs-on-to-grandson-in-Forney-tornado-winds-146022335.html?gallery=y&img=1&c=y&c=y

here's some pics of the damage in Forney

[jeff]

Ok, I'll throw this question out:

Given the rapid spin-up of these storms today and the fact that they were spitting down multiple tornadoes for hours, how did SPC and local NWS all but strike out in giving advance notice that an outbreak like this might be forthcoming?

What did they miss, if anything?

Many of the models pointed out a line of thunderstorms would sweep through. Unlike last week, today had a warm front boundary stalled around I-30. This was the mechanism that allowed supercells to form ahead of the squall. Instability was always high (same as last week) but question was would storms form ahead in the unstable air. Unfortunately it did, it's hard sometimes to see these boundaries ahead of time. I'm not sure if it was or not but the MCS that went into east Texas the other day might have left that boundary and areas that were close but didn't get any rain were ripe. I think it would've been a hard forecast for both the SPC and NWS ahead of time.

While the event was underforecast...the reasoning was that of a slow moving weak outflow boundary. The two storms that popped in the warm sector south of that boundary went tornadic as they crossed the low level shear zone near the boundary where low level winds were backed resulting in good low level shear...we know low level boundaries can really be good tornado producers IF storms generate. The bigger question this morning was...would storms fire off in the warm sector...15Z KCLL special sounding showed a fairly weak cap with visible images showing large breaks in the overcast over the warm sector...the first warning sign that things may good bad. Once storms generated and went tornadic NWS FWD did everything right with the issuance of strongly worded Tornado Emergency statements. It was the right set of ingredients over a highly urban area...luckily the tornadoes while damaging were not the moster EF 4 and EF 5 of the past couple of years or we would be talking a signicant loss of life even if tornado safety rules were followed and warning lead times were long. Most damage is in the EF1-2 range with a few spotty EF 3 and maybe an isolated EF 4 area, but most of the urban areas were on the lower end of the damage scale and the tornadoes while impressive were not the 1 mile type

[CrazyC83]

The same tornadoes in the Southeast often result in huge death tolls though yet they are just as common there...why the difference? I don't think there are many basements in Texas either...

[Ntxw]

Great analysis Jeff, thanks!

After looking at the pictures/videos out of Forney, I think low end EF4 might come out of there. The hardest hit subdivision has very strong brick homes leveled/severe damage. Haven't seen anything out of Rockwall county yet.