Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)

[wx247]

LLJ should be kicking in soon and a ramp up in the activity will commence.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado on the ground approaching Lawton, OK right now.

[wx247]

Storms are firing east of the front in E Oklahoma. Will need to keep an eye on them!

[AdamFirst]

Damage and flash flooding reported in and around Lawton, OK from prior and ongoing storms according to Comanche County Police/EMS radio

http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/ctid/2143/web

[cycloneye]

Downgraded from Moderate to Slight Risk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AREA...

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL
MO TO SERN KS WHERE IT BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FARTHER SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN OK INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF DEL RIO NWD INTO NWRN TX WHERE IT
INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT.

STORMS THAT INITIATED NEAR THE DRYLINE-COLD FRONT INTERSECTION
CONTINUE FROM NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK...GENERALLY ALONG THE SW-NE
ORIENTED FRONT. BOTH DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS WELL AS LINE
SEGMENTS EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL SEVERE TYPES REMAIN
POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SEWD IN WAKE OF A LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING
NEWD THROUGH OK. AS THIS OCCURS...TENDENCY WILL PROBABLY BE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AND GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES WITH
PRIMARY THREAT BECOMING DAMAGING WIND LATER TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF OK
INTO NRN TX.

OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR OVER NERN OK/SERN KS AND
SWRN MO. THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS MO TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING IMPULSE...AND A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME SFC
BASED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE LATER THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT BEGINS
TO SURGE SEWD THROUGH KS INTO WRN MO.

OTHERWISE...A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
PERSIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN MO AND EWD INTO CNTRL/NRN IL INTO IND.
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT...BEFORE ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 04/18/2013

[wx247]

Still a 10% hatched tornado risk though and wind/hail threat will expand east overnight.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Doesn't seem like everything that COULD'VE gone down today came to actual fruition so far. It was a quite explosive but somewhat uncertain set-up.

Also that hatched/MDT area re: tomorrow - GEEZ. From Louisiana all the way up to the Lakes.

[cheezyWXguy]

So I was just about to post about how despite the fact that the severe weather risk extends down into texas, the front continues to remain completely dormant. However, upon taking one last look at the radar before posting, it appears that a line of storms has rapidly appeared out west of abilene. Despite the linear orientation of the storms, the tornado threat is apparently still nonzero overnight and may still need to be watched as it develops and moves towards the east. Even if tornadoes aren't as big of a threat, judging by this line's rather quick motion i might guess that damaging winds would be the primary threat.

[WeatherGuesser]

Just about dead center in the Moderate as of now, so it could be an interesting day. They've moved it a few times though, so who knows.

[Cyclenall]

Yesterday's turn of events were interesting enough to take a nap in between. If today turns out the same, this will be my reaction: A fit of rage:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuWKhPGzN6U[/youtube]

This was also my reaction to the NAM getting the WF position correct.

There was actually tornado warnings still going pretty late, just hours ago. Now there is a massive squall line from Canada to almost Mexico...pretty good. The Linear mode started kinda late so it wasn't much of an issue...it was the activity that was the issue. What was the reason for lack of supercells standing alone and forming east? I've heard under-cutting by the cold front but that can't be all. What's interesting now is there are cells forming behind the squall line...odd.

LLJ should be kicking in soon and a ramp up in the activity will commence.

And what occurred was nothing of significance. There was a rain shield of sloppy convection close to the supercells, the tornadoes were probably not strong at all, and instead of intensifying, they actually cycled and didn't do anything different. We are now over the 1 year mark for a tornado outbreak (14/04/12).

[WeatherGuesser]

If today turns out the same, this will be my reaction: A fit of rage:

Should be a sigh of relief. No storms is good. Mild storms can be tolerated, but no one needs the severe stuff.

[WeatherGuesser]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 545 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALTON
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF STL. THESE STORMS HAVE BEGUN SHOWING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS MORNING AS THESE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

First PDS watch since December 25, 2012. Probs are 70/60.

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 935 AM UNTIL
500 PM EDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
SOUTH BEND INDIANA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TERRE HAUTE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
INTENSIFYING PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THAT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...BOTH IN SUPERCELLS AND WITHIN MESO VORTICES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LINE. ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO
LOCALLY EXTREME WIND DAMAGE...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER TORNADIC OR
STRAIGHT LINE IN NATURE,

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...KERR

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER MI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 181348Z - 181415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WW ANTICIPATED FOR PORTIONS SRN/ERN LOWER MI.

DISCUSSION...THOUGH CURRENTLY STABLE...WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WAA...MOIST ADVECTION AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS AREA
PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER SRN LM.
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND AS MAIN THREAT...AND
QLCS/BOW-ECHO TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..EDWARDS/KERR.. 04/18/2013


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43478640 44038281 42918242 42568257 42678261 42668276
42508283 42318299 42218312 42058314 41958320 41808345
41748347 41718478 42078477 42038623 42258623 42248634
42548622 42968620 43178629 43478640

[FireRat]

PDS really??
Wow
I will be watching the weather channel throughout the day, hoping for the best in the soon-to-be affected region!

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I was kinda surprised to see a PDS, after all the Moderate Risk isn't even for tornadoes there (it's for wind)...

[Dave]

I wouldn't be surprised to see that PDS watch moved east a little early this afternoon. The cutoff line is the Indianapolis & Wilmington districts down here. Jennings is KIND, Ripley is KILN.

[CrazyC83]

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAGINAW
MICHIGAN TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...WW 123...

DISCUSSION...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF A
PRE-COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE RAPIDLY ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
REGION. DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES AHEAD OF THE LINE...BEFORE IT MOVES EAST OF
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...KERR

[Bunkertor]

A PDS at 220pm z Are they ... um... weird ?

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 60/30.

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 925 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...WW 123...WW 124...

DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW
FORMATIONS IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED EWD 20-25 KT ACROSS WW AREA WITH
EMBEDDED ELEMENTS MOVING MORE RAPIDLY NEWD...ROUGHLY 40 KT. GIVEN
LACK OF CINH EVIDENT IN 12Z LZK RAOB...DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF INITIAL/PRIMARY CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. WARM SECTOR IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE STEADILY
THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...EDWARDS