Severe Outbreak for May 18-19-20-21 (Watches-Warnings)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
443 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 440 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES WAS LOCATED NEAR LUTHER. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AT
ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS STORM MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...PING PONG BALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELLSTON AND LUTHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
&&

LAT...LON 3562 9702 3563 9731 3572 9731 3574 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 257DEG 25KT 3568 9725

$$
WR

[CrazyC83]

Mesoscale Discussion 703 - Central Oklahoma

Strong tornadoes to continue...dangerous!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 182...

VALID 192137Z - 192230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 182 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO MARKEDLY
INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME DURING THE PAST 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT KTLX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED AND
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER NRN OKLAHOMA COUNTY WITH SEVERAL
OTHER INTENSE UPDRAFTS SW OF THE OKC METRO TRYING TO ACQUIRE ROBUST
SUPERCELL ROTATION. SURFACE OBS SHOW A THIN CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL OK
THROUGH OSAGE COUNTY OK WHERE PRESSURE FALLS ARE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORMS/DRYLINE. A NOTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST HOUR FROM KTLX VWP SHOWING 1 KM FLOW
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT. THIS IS RESULTING IN AROUND 200-250
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH WHEN INPUTTING THE NRN OKLAHOMA COUNTY STORM/S
STORM MOTION --THUS INCREASING THIS VALUE FROM AROUND 100 M2/S2 1-2
HRS EARLIER. AS THESE STORMS MATURE AND INTENSIFY...THESE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL POSSESS CYCLIC VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEVERAL TORNADOES DOWNSTREAM OF THESE
SUPERCELLS /POTENTIALLY LONG LIVED AND DAMAGING/ IN ADDITION TO
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.

..SMITH.. 05/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35009789 35829738 35979656 35709628 35299660 35099702
35009789

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF WELLSTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHANDLER...DAVENPORT...CARNEY...TRYON...AGRA...KENDRICK...AVERY AND
PARKLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU
CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A
STURDY BUILDING NOW.

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
&&

LAT...LON 3571 9667 3570 9714 3586 9714 3593 9698
3594 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 241DEG 36KT 3576 9711

$$
30

[CrazyC83]

Mesoscale Discussion 704 - Eastern Kansas

Tornadoes to continue, wind threat increasing.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181...

VALID 192157Z - 192300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 181 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE AREAS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ONGOING SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A RAPID
UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE OVER S-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO NERN KS. AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS...DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THIS
AREA...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BY 00-01Z.
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INTENSIFY BY EVENING OWING TO AN INCREASE IN THE
LLJ...SWATHS OF LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENT/EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONE/MESOVORTEX.

..SMITH.. 05/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37049732 37539730 38289681 38749711 39769650 39789535
39089453 38249485 37029600 37049732

[CrazyC83]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 184 - Central Nebraska

A couple tornadoes also possible.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 450 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BEATRICE NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW
181...WW 182...WW 183...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/STORM
CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND E OF MAIN AXIS
OF MID-LVL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS REGION. COOL MID-LVL TEMPS
ATOP MODEST BUT MOIST SELY LOW-LVL FLOW MAY SUPPORT INSTANCES OF SVR
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH AT
LEAST MID EVE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22020.


...CORFIDI

[cycloneye]

Who wants to continue the posting of warnings?

[CrazyC83]

Mesoscale Discussion 706 - Central Oklahoma

Tornado outbreak to continue, strong to violent tornadoes...maybe a new PDS watch should be issued?

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 182...

VALID 192208Z - 192245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 182 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HIGH-END LONG TRACK TORNADO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD
ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM LINCOLN COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY THREATEN
CREEK COUNTY.

DISCUSSION...KTLX RADAR STORM VELOCITY DATA SHOWS A HIGH CONFIDENCE
INTENSE TORNADO MOVING INTO LINCOLN COUNTY OKLAHOMA WITH 0.5 DEG
ROTATIONAL VELOCITIES 80-90 KTS. THE PURCELL WIND PROFILE AND KTLX
SHOW A SICKLE-SHAPE HODOGRAPH. GIVEN THE VERY BUOYANT AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES MAY
CONTINUE TO AFFECT CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE STORMS
FARTHER SOUTH MATURE...POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES MAY EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE FROM THOSE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

..SMITH.. 05/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35109780 35899721 36209626 35969605 35359657 35109714
35109780

[CrazyC83]

Tornado Watch 185 - North and east of the Twin Cities

Probs are 30/10. Isolated tornado threat.

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 525 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 110 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF CAMP DOUGLAS
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW
181...WW 182...WW 183...WW 184...

DISCUSSION...ARCING SQLN ASSOCIATED WITH NNE-MOVING MCV EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM IN AREA OF ENHANCED WAA/UPLIFT ALONG STALLED W-E
FRONT IN NRN WI. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH
LOCALLY DMGG WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
TORNADOES THROUGH LATE EVE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.


...CORFIDI

[CrazyC83]

Mesoscale Discussion 707 - Much of Missouri and SE Kansas

Tornado Watch coming soon.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS / SWRN-CNTRL-NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 192254Z - 200000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT HR OR
SO DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCHES FOR PARTS OF FAR SERN
KS AND SWRN MO NEWD INTO NERN MO.

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF MO IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE PER
THE 20Z SGF RAOB /1600 J/KG MLCAPE/. THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING /50+ KT/
AND BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES/MESOVORTICES.
DESPITE SOME DECREASE OF DEWPOINTS NOTED OVER SWRN MO INTO THE LOWER
60S DUE TO MIXING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...LOW LEVEL MOIST
ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY THIS
EVENING. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER MID LEVEL CONVECTION ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER CAN ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE NEAR-TERM. IF
THIS OCCURS...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. OTHERWISE...A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ONCE STORMS OVER E-CNTRL KS MOVE
INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY THE MO/KS BORDER. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO
THREAT...SWATHS OF DMGG WINDS /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ WILL LIKELY
BE THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 37059508 40439345 40409199 39889151 38389179 36609288
36569436 37059508

[CrazyC83]

Mesoscale Discussion 709 - Eastern Oklahoma

Tornado outbreak continues with threat of violent tornadoes.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / NERN AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181...182...

VALID 192327Z - 200030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 181...182...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...INTENSE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL OK
EXTENDING NEWD INTO NERN OK AND SERN KS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM
SERN KS ON THE SRN END OF A SQUALL LINE WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM 35 MI W OF TUL...5 NNW CQB...AND 25 ESE OF
OKC. KTLX VWP SHOWED A PRONOUNCED SICKLE SHAPED HODOGRAPH /350
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRIOR TO
THE PASSAGE OF THE NOW CONFIRMED TORNADIC SUPERCELL. VERY INTENSE
ROTATIONAL VELOCITIES WITH THE CLEVELAND COUNTY/POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY
STORM...COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE AND NEAR-STORM
ENVIRONMENT...WILL LIKELY YIELD A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR CONTINUED
CYCLING OF INTENSE TORNADOES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS STORM. THE 105 KT
ROTATIONAL VELOCITY AT 0.5 DEG AS OF 2320Z...IS HIGHLY INDICATIVE OF
A VERY INTENSE/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADO WITH THIS STORM.

FARTHER NE OVER NERN OK...KINX VWP SHOWS 50 KT SLY FLOW AT 1 KM AGL.
ALTHOUGH THE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS KTLX...300
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH WILL MORE THAN SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TORNADOES.

..SMITH.. 05/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37389685 36819737 35309742 35239675 35289634 36089577
37159576 37489617 37389685

[CrazyC83]

Tornado Watch 186 - Most of Missouri and parts of Illinois and Kansas

Probs are 70/20. Also winds to 90 mph - derecho formation possible.

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS TO 90 MPH POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS EXPECTED WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF
KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF MONETT MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...WW
182...WW 183...WW 184...WW 185...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINES OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY ENE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL AND NRN MO THIS EVE. THESE MAY
PRODUCE SEVERAL LONG SWATHS OF DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL...IN ADDITION
TO A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS NOW FORMING ALONG THE KS-MO BORDER
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND EXPAND NWD AS
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TOWARD THE SZL/COU/JEF AREAS LATER THIS EVE.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE BOW NOW CROSSING THE ERN KS
FLINT HILLS SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES INTO WRN MO
AND THE MKC AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH 70 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX ROUNDING
SE QUADRANT OF NEB UPR LOW..

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...CORFIDI

[CrazyC83]

Mesoscale Discussion 710 - Much of Iowa

Isolated tornadoes continue.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 183...

VALID 200013Z - 200115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 183 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
WITH THE GREATEST NEAR-TERM RISK FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HAIL OVER CNTRL IA.

DISCUSSION...A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TSTMS HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
PAST HOUR BETWEEN OMA AND DSM...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF A VORTICITY MAXIMUM RAPIDLY MOVING NEWD THROUGH NWRN IA. AS OF
2355Z...THE MOST INTENSE STORM /A SUPERCELL/ WAS LOCATED OVER DALLAS
COUNTY IA WHICH HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED A TORNADO. GIVEN A
MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHICH COINCIDES WITH A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 4 KM AGL BEFORE VEERING SLIGHTLY TO SSWLY AND
INCREASING TO 50-60 KT IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...THE THREAT FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL PERSIST OVER CNTRL IA THIS
EVENING. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
INTENSE/PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS.

OVER ERN IA...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ALONG
THE MS RIVER NEAR MLI. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
THAN POINTS TO THE WEST...THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..MEAD.. 05/20/2013


ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 42229623 42339029 41549002 40599050 40319093 40439204
40729316 40629534 41289577 42229623

[CrazyC83]

Mesoscale Discussion 711 - Wisconsin and Illinois

Watch likely, damaging winds main threat but tornadoes possible.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN WI INTO NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 200046Z - 200145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO THE
EAST OF TORNADO WATCHES 180 AND 183 LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...THOUGH A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT THE LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING OWING TO STEEP
LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST PBL WHERE LOWEST 100-MB
MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 13.5 G/KG WERE OBSERVED. THOUGH SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL...THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE CAP SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE
INSTABILITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONGOING
BOWING TSTM COMPLEX OVER NWRN IL TO PERSIST...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 40-50
KT NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WHERE WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL BE ENHANCED. GIVEN A STEADY STRENGTHENING TO THE MID AND
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELD...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

..MEAD/CORFIDI.. 05/20/2013


ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 41209149 42899142 44019123 44449049 44448946 44108892
43218874 41818885 41208885 40818957 40889068 41209149

[CrazyC83]

Mesoscale Discussion 712 - Eastern Kansas into Iowa and Missouri

Tornado threat still there but damaging winds main risk.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN - NERN - AND N-CNTRL KS / SERN NEB / NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181...

VALID 200055Z - 200200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 181 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT IS SEEMINGLY CONFINED TO THE QLCS ALONG
THE KS/MO BORDER AND OVER SERN KS.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF N-CNTRL
AND NERN KS IN A RAIN-COOLED/PARTIAL CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS
WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S. SOME VIGOR HAS BEEN NOTED ON THE
WRN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR PERHAPS A LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUST/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT.

FARTHER E ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...A QLCS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY. KEAX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCED POCKETS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE QLCS
PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE MODE...A NON-ZERO TORNADIC MESOVORTEX THREAT IS STILL
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE OVER THIS REGION.

MORE CELLULAR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER S-CNTRL KS AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO INGEST A MOISTURE RICH/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE S.
STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A TORNADO OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS THE 50 KT LLJ FOCUSES TOWARDS THIS REGION.

..SMITH.. 05/20/2013


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
DDC...

LAT...LON 38249847 39529818 40479759 40909670 40589476 40119395
38079512 37029576 36939683 37449706 38009608 38529606
38249847

[CrazyC83]

0100 UTC Convective Outlook

Transitioning to a wind threat, some strong tornadoes still possible.

SPC AC 200100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN
OK AND SOUTHEAST KS INTO MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY...
A SCATTERED SUPERCELL OR TWO REMAINING CAPABLE OF A STRONG TORNADO
WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT CONCERN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
/MID INTO LATE EVENING/ ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ALONG A CONSOLIDATING
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS KS INTO NORTHERN
OK.

MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTHEAST...MULTIPLE AMALGAMATING/UPSCALE GROWING
CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE OZARKS/LOWER MO
VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTAINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF AN ALREADY MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN ESPECIALLY ACROSS MO INTO EASTERN IA/FAR WESTERN IL...WITH A
FEW TORNADOES /POSSIBLY EVEN A STRONG ONE/ POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES.

..GUYER.. 05/20/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0108Z (9:08PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

Tornado Watch 187 - Upper Mississippi Valley

Probs are 40/20.

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN IOWA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 810 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF LONEROCK
WISCONSIN TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...WW
182...WW 183...WW 184...WW 185...WW 186...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT WW
AREA THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY MON AS MOIST...SSWLY LLJ NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENS AND SWLY MID-LVL FLOW INTENSIFIES WITH THE CONTINUED NE
ADVANCE OF 70+ KT MID SPEED MAX IN E QUADRANT OF NEB UPR LOW.
ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS...SUPERCELLS...AND LEWPS
WITH A RISK FOR DMGG WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES DESPITE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...CORFIDI

[cycloneye]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTH TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO CENTRAL TEXAS

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THE AREA OF
GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM FAR NORTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FAVORABLE WINDS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..PETERS.. 05/20/2013

[cycloneye]

SPC Update at 13:00Z for Day 1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOUTHERN MO....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO MUCH OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION....

...TX/OK/AR/KS/MO...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL STATES...WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO INITIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LTS-BVO. THIS
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VARIOUS
MESOSCALE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT
AGREE ON STORMS FORMING OVER CENTRAL OK BY ABOUT 20Z AND BUILDING
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND WESTERN MO. THE INITIAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLUAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM OVER
SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TX APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
REMAINING DISCRETE AND POSING A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...STORMS THAT FORM
FROM CENTRAL OK NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND MO APPEAR LIKELY
TO ORGANIZE INTO BROKEN LINES AND CLUSTERS BY EARLY EVENING CAPABLE
OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM...VERY
LARGE CAPE...AND FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER
PARTS OF IA/WI EASTWARD INTO MI/OH. RELATIVELY STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND LITTLE CAP SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MN. MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN THIS
REGION...WHILE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HELPS TO ORGANIZE
THE CONVECTION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MULTIPLE
LINES/CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THIS REGION...WITH A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...TX...
SOUTH OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA IN TX...CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER TODAY COMPARED TO LAST FEW DAYS THAT ISOLATED STORMS WILL
FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM IN THIS AREA WILL
POSE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 05/20/2013

[CrazyC83]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

Main threat is large hail. Isolated tornadoes possible.

SPC AC 200559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER THE ERN SD VICINITY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS IT -- AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS -- SHIFTS EWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EWD PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AIDED BY AN
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE PAC
NW...AND A VERY WEAK LOW SHOULD LINGER ACROSS FL.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY INVOF SWRN MN IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...REACHING THE WRN
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAPED INITIALLY
FROM MN/IA SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH
TIME...WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO
REGION. THE SRN FRINGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD LINGER ACROSS TX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WASHING OUT COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT.

...THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...
SCATTERED/ONGOING CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE RISK AREA TO START THE PERIOD...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST LOCALLY WITH THE
ONGOING STORMS...BUT THE GREATER EFFECT OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE TO HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA -- PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF AR NEWD. WHILE SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DIURNAL PEAK HEATING PERIOD...THE LACK OF GREATER
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
AREA.

FARTHER SW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL TX/THE HILL
COUNTRY AREA...STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS TX AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL ALLOW DEVELOPING STORMS
ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN/ACQUIRE ROTATION.
WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...ONLY ISOLATED
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED -- MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AS SOME
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OCCURS. INSTEAD...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE VERY LARGE HAIL...WHILE WIND THREAT INCREASES WITH
TIME AS STORMS LIKELY CONGEAL DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR NWWD AS WI -- JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW WHERE LOW-TOPPED STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY
EVOLVE...AND AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHERE A
BAND OF LATE AFTERNOON STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR.

..GOSS.. 05/20/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1305Z (9:05AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

1630 UTC Convective Outlook

Not much change.

SPC AC 201630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN/CNTRL OK...N-CNTRL
TX...NWRN AR...SRN MO...FAR SERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL
GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS TO OZARK PLATEAU...
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS SIMILAR TO EARLIER OUTLOOKS WITH
ONLY MINOR OVERALL CHANGES TO INDIVIDUAL HAZARD PROBABILITIES.
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /65 KT AT 500 MB IN THE 12Z ABQ RAOB/ ATTENDANT
TO THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OK TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING.
TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT HAS BECOME SLOW-MOVING FROM SERN KS
TO SWRN OK...INTERSECTING A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED S/SWWD ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY TO THE ERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES BY MID-AFTERNOON. MORNING CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE INSISTENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY GROW UPSCALE
INTO NUMEROUS LINE SEGMENTS...SURGING EWD THIS EVENING WITHIN A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL TSTMS WILL BECOME SUPERCELLUAR QUICKLY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
LIKELY AS HODOGRAPHS/INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE...ALONG
WITH A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST FROM S-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL OK. BUT WITH
PREDOMINANT SWLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE 0-1 KM
SHEAR...OVERALL TORNADO INTENSITY/LONGEVITY MAY BE
TEMPERED...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE SO
QUICKLY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS GROWTH SHOULD YIELD BOWING LINEAR
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SWATHS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES.

...MID/UPPER-MS VALLEY TO CNTRL GREAT LAKES...
PRIMARY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO EXPAND DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES E/NEWD
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION
YESTERDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME HAS BECOME CONFINED FROM LOWER
MI S/SSWD TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS. BUT PLENTIFUL
HEATING IS OCCURRING TO THE N OF THIS PLUME WILL YIELD A RECOVERING
AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF A TSTM CLUSTER APPROACHING CNTRL MO. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...WITH ADDITIONAL LINEAR SEGMENTS EMANATING E/NEWD FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU LATER TODAY. SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER N/NW...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER LOWER MI
AND IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER ERN SD. BUOYANCY WILL BE STRONGEST OVER LOWER MI
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...POCKETS OF ROBUST
SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AND WITH
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...SETUP COULD A FEW ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTERS. A MIX OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 05/20/2013

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CURRENT UTC TIME: 1638Z (12:38PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME