Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31

[Bunkertor]

First Meso

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEB...WESTERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291354Z - 291600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SEVERE
STORMS...ARE AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEB. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA. WE ARE MONITORING TRENDS FOR THE NEED OF A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED REMNANT MCV OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR SLN. ENHANCED LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A SHIELD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF EAR TO WEST OF DSM.
ISOLATED CELLS IN THIS COMPLEX HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN INTENSIFICATION
AND SOME RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS
AREA...MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LIFT.
MEANWHILE...BROKEN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO
OCCUR...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHILE OVERALL SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WILL MONITOR TRENDS
IN ONGOING CONVECTION FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBLE WW.

..HART/MEAD.. 05/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 39999938 41419968 42419889 43139702 43439450 42879344
41839324 40999413 40329691 39999938

[apocalypt-flyer]

*some daytime heating*.

Question will be just how much. Guess we'll see more in 4 or 5 hours.

[RL3AO]

They've added a 15% tornado risk to extreme western Oklahoma/eastern TX Panhandle.

[wx247]

Clouds are clearing out across the area slowly... should allow for plenty of destabilization later today.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 9839223720

[wx247]

Have a Tornado Watch likely to be issued soon for portions of the Southern Plains.

[EF-5bigj]

Pretty high Torcon today 6's and 7's. Will these super cells be HP?

[wx247]

First tornado watch of the day is out with very high tornado probabilities:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (50%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

[TwisterFanatic]

1730z Day 2 Outlook update once again mentions potential strong tornadoes for Oklahoma, Southern Kansas.

[SouthernMet]

Tornado Watch up already for Eastern Texas Panhandle/Western Oklahoma & Wichita Falls 

[wx247]

1730z Day 2 Outlook update once again mentions potential strong tornadoes for Oklahoma, Southern Kansas.

Yeah, the hatched area tomorrow includes my own backyard. Yikes!

[EF-5bigj]

Oklahoma sure does not need this. But man those are high probilities for even strong/violent tornadoes.

[Ntxw]

The greatest area of concern this afternoon that I see where everything seems to be coming together best is the Childress to Lawton corridor. Models show big super cells in that region and sigtor values seem greatest.

[Hurricaneman]

The greatest area of concern this afternoon that I see where everything seems to be coming together best is the Childress to Lawton corridor. Models show big super cells in that region and sigtor values seem greatest.

There seems to be an area of rotation in a supercell in that area, could someone get a pic of that

[apocalypt-flyer]

15% TOR area along the TX/OK panhandle has been removed again.

[TwisterFanatic]

Sun starting to pop out in SW Oklahoma. If enough heating occurs, nasty supercells will form ahead of the dryline.

[Bunkertor]

Next MD is up.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST AND NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291906Z - 292100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
TX...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OK. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 19Z...THE SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR AMA
SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF MAF. STRONG HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
THE PORTION OF WEST TX EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY 2500-3000 J/KG. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTHWEST TX WHERE INCREASED DIURNAL
HEATING HAS BEGUN. THE RESULT IS A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF WEAK
CAP AND STRONG INSTABILITY. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WHICH MAY
PROMOTE RAPID THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION ONCE INITIATION OCCURS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

[Bunkertor]

15% TOR area along the TX/OK panhandle has been removed again.

The question is why they they had it removed ? Since the former hatched area fit with the 70/20 watch, there are two options. 1 ) a mistake, 2 ) they don´t want the folks outside the area to feel too comfortable.

[apocalypt-flyer]

15% TOR area along the TX/OK panhandle has been removed again.

The question is why they they had it removed ? Since the former hatched area fit with the 70/20 watch, there are two options. 1 ) a mistake, 2 ) they don´t want the folks outside the area to feel too comfortable.

Or they think it'll head towards a MCS wind damage type scenario a little quicker.

Mind, 10% or 15% is not a massive margin, it's still a spicy set-up - the hatched EF2-EF5 area is stll pretty dominant over the same area.

[RL3AO]

Watch likely coming for MN/IA/WI

[Bunkertor]

15% TOR area along the TX/OK panhandle has been removed again.

The question is why they they had it removed ? Since the former hatched area fit with the 70/20 watch, there are two options. 1 ) a mistake, 2 ) they don´t want the folks outside the area to feel too comfortable.

Or they think it'll head towards a MCS wind damage type scenario a little quicker.
Mind, 10% or 15% is not a massive margin, it's still a spicy set-up - the hatched EF2-EF5 area is stll pretty dominant over the same area.

OK, i did not see the 10 % line there. Then it is my fault. ( I just saw on the latest soundings, the Cap is removed in the area we are talking about )