Texas Fall-2014

[Portastorm]

Hope to see some chatter on here this weekend about next week's cold front. Looks like we have ALL SYSTEMS GO on the front and it should be significant. Who picked around September 12th for our first major front?

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like late next week we will cool off to July levels . I have not had a chance to look at the models, are we talking 75 highs 55 lows for the weekend for the I-20 corridor?

[aggiecutter]

Looks like an early taste of fall on the way for the northern 3rd of the state.

[Ntxw]

I'd pay attention to this weekend before the cold front next week. Norbert in the EPAC is almost a major hurricane (wow at that basin this year) and there is a weak front crossing through. I think moisture opportunities this week continues to look better for much of the state thanks to these features. ECMWF is dropping anywhere from 2-5 inches for a large swath, lift mechanism from fronts and tropical connection from Pacific.

Think we will see the EPAC/El Nino/Fall connection at it's best the next 3 months. Norbert is probably the first of many to come. When there is lows of some sort near the Baja is usually good for us.

[dhweather]

I'd pay attention to this weekend before the cold front next week. Norbert in the EPAC is almost a major hurricane (wow at that basin this year) and there is a weak front crossing through. I think moisture opportunities this week continues to look better for much of the state thanks to these features. ECMWF is dropping anywhere from 2-5 inches for a large swath, lift mechanism from fronts and tropical connection from Pacific.

Think we will see the EPAC/El Nino/Fall connection at it's best the next 3 months. Norbert is probably the first of many to come. When there is lows of some sort near the Baja is usually good for us.

I hope so, we are desperate for rain. Heard a rumor that if we stay as-is, we will be stage 5 in the spring.

[Ntxw]

I hope so, we are desperate for rain. Heard a rumor that if we stay as-is, we will be stage 5 in the spring.

I don't think that will happen. 2011 was the apex of the decadal drought and we didn't achieve stage 5. Out west where water reserves and sources are much less could be but for a major metropolitan it's a very low chance.

[Ntxw]

Here's the radar for the southern plains, front will be arriving by morning. I'm not sure on timing for rain, but half inch to an inch for spots.

[Janie2006]

Hope to see some chatter on here this weekend about next week's cold front. Looks like we have ALL SYSTEMS GO on the front and it should be significant. Who picked around September 12th for our first major front?

I was 5 days off.

Finally, the local (relatively speaking) media is picking up on this probable first true fall front of the season. James Spann out of Birmingham has been talking about it this afternoon on the ABC 33/40 wx blog, tentatively predicting 40s for minimum temperatures in the favoured spots of northern Alabama late next week. Whilst this has little to do with Texas, it has everything to do with a strong cold front for September and there's no reason at all to think a lot of Texas won't see some nice cool air.

Indeed, it is "all systems go". Let the games begin.

[TheProfessor]

Just like the Great Anakin Skywalker once said, "This is where the fun begins" unless your Wxman57

[Ntxw]

You know, by definition this is an Arctic air mass. It came from the Arctic above Alaska, the high pressure is of Arctic origin. But it's September, so the saying doesn't quite have the same meaning. We'll love it either way, relief.



So why is this happening?

This



Because of this

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Great graphics. The warm pool is still there! Im smiling from ear to ear over here. We should have more moisture to play with this year too. Im pumped. Any other times where we had a major front this early? I dont remember one this early at all. Mid October is the earliest i remember.

[Portastorm]

Hope to see some chatter on here this weekend about next week's cold front. Looks like we have ALL SYSTEMS GO on the front and it should be significant. Who picked around September 12th for our first major front?

I was 5 days off.

Finally, the local (relatively speaking) media is picking up on this probable first true fall front of the season. James Spann out of Birmingham has been talking about it this afternoon on the ABC 33/40 wx blog, tentatively predicting 40s for minimum temperatures in the favoured spots of northern Alabama late next week. Whilst this has little to do with Texas, it has everything to do with a strong cold front for September and there's no reason at all to think a lot of Texas won't see some nice cool air.

Indeed, it is "all systems go". Let the games begin.

Unless we're talking some sharp, deep trough ... our respective areas of the CONUS are indeed often interconnected weatherwise. Janie, you may have been one of the ones calling for an earlier fropa. So, you get points for that.

[Ntxw]

GFS has a high of 75 and low of 61 in Austin, partly to mostly cloudy, and a N/NE breeze on Friday. Talk about perfect high school football weather!

[Janie2006]

I'll take any points I can get.

Right. I've got a mug of tea, so let's get cracking. The graphic posted by Ntwx indicates that the water temperatures off the coast of British Columbia are anomalously warm, in some cases bordering on 4*C over the average, which may be even warmer than the already above-average SSTs we've seen in that part of the Pacific this summer. No changes, then. The shallow, colder air has to go somewhere, and it's going to flow into the heart of the continental US.

If it were December or January we'd be talking about a major Arctic outbreak, but since it's September and the sun angle is still rather high we're talking about moderately cool conditions rather than *cold*. Still, the idea is (1) harbinger of an early autumn and (2) this front could break the typical heat and humidity of early September, perhaps for good this season.

[Ntxw]

12z Ecmwf is reinforcing late week front with another front following it and shower activity beginning the following week

[Tireman4]

Yep. By using the Anti-Wxman 57 formula, Fall is upon us after the 13th. Woo hoo.

[South Texas Storms]

Rain chances will be increasing this afternoon through tomorrow as a weak cold front stalls across central Texas. Some places could receive over 1 inch of rain by Monday. A stronger cold front could move through much of Texas around the end of this week bringing more rain chances and cooler temperatures.

[weatherdude1108]

Encouraging discussion from the EWX office!


"000
FXUS64 KEWX 062034
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN INTERESTING FIRST FORECAST PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
WATERS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE SITS ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST.
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN TONIGHT
OVER THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWATS NEAR 2
INCH.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND BRING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR RAIN
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT...AS
WELL AS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THESE AREAS
ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEL RIO TO SEGUIN TO LEXINGTON.
THE REASONING OF POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IS DUE TO SLOW MOVING
STORM MOTION/STEERING FLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE TIMING IS FROM
ABOUT 7 PM TO 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FROM THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE HILL COUNTY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA AS OF THIS
PACKAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOWER
70S ELSEWHERE."

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion regarding Rain chances for late next week until the weekend....Cold Front+Tropical Moisture=Good for Rain!!

IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY BE CHANGING FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FIRST...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED AND THURSDAY
AND GENERATE A POTENT COLD FRONT THE WILL SURGE SOUTH AND INTO
TEXAS THU OR FRIDAY. THE GFS IS DEFINITELY MORE BULLISH THAN THE
EURO...BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT WHICH IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LITTLE OR NO TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIRECTLY...BUT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL SHOULD
ACT TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO REMAINS MANY DAYS AWAY...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THE TREND CONTINUES...FURTHER DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO DAYTIME TEMPS MAY BE WARRANTED.
OTHERWISE...INHERITED TEMPS WERE MAINTAINED. ADJUSTED POPS FOR
THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIODS AS WELL. INCLUDED WIDESPREAD 30
PERCENT POPS FOR NOW...BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...FURTHER
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley teasing about what lies after next weekends cold front:

"Our cold front is on schedule to arrive by Thursday bringing showers and storms through Friday to at least half of north Texas along with brisk north winds with temperature struggling to get out of the 70s on Friday and Saturday!

And if that isn't cool enough for you, just wait until the following week."