Texas Summer 2016

[Ntxw]

Another MCS cluster has formed over the eastern PH moving ESE through Oklahoma. If it holds should yet again make its way towards north Tx by morning

[gpsnowman]

Another MCS cluster has formed over the eastern PH moving ESE through Oklahoma. If it holds should yet again make its way towards north Tx by morning

If it can hold together it looks like it might go east of DFW.

[Tireman4]

Gonna be a hot one this week folks. Stay hydrated. Watch yourselves...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 141109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
609 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR cigs over northern TAF sites will begin to mix out after 15z.
Southern TAF sites will likely remain VFR. Not a lot of change to
previous TAF package with high pressure in control. Better
potential for MVFR cigs again over northern TAF sites as cap
strengthens over the region. Winds will generally remain S-SW
backing more southerly toward later aftn...then veering back to
the S-SW overnight. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Evening upper air analysis showed shortwave ridging continuing to
build over Texas with a weak disturbance just east of the region.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over northwest Louisiana early
this morning are associated with this disturbance and are expected
to remain well outside of the region as the parent disturbance
slowly translates east today.

There may still be enough of a weakness aloft over the far
eastern counties for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop
later this afternoon. However, with weak capping and gradually
drying conditions becoming established today only covering these
areas with a silent 10 PoP. Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog
slowly developing across Southeast Texas early this morning is
expected to lift/scatter out by late morning with temperatures
rising into the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Dry and humid
conditions are expected again tonight across the region, with
overnight lows in the mid 70s to near 80.

The upper ridge centers itself over Central and East Texas
Wednesday and Thursday before retrograding westward by the
weekend. The upper air pattern will allow dry conditions to become
established across the region through Saturday and promote 850 MB
temperatures into the 20-23 C range. This will allow afternoon
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s through the remainder
of the week. These temperatures, coupled with dew points in the
70s, raise concerns for elevated heat index values in the 100 to
107 degree range for most of the week. Will go ahead and cover all
of Southeast Texas with a Special Weather Statement highlighting
this threat, recognizing that some portions of the Brazos Valley
and Piney Woods may not reach heat index values that high today
with dew points mixing out to slightly lower values than yesterday
afternoon.

A disturbance sliding westward under the southern periphery of
the retrograded upper ridge on Sunday will bring low chances for
showers and thunderstorms back into the region at the beginning of
next week.

Huffman

MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern is in place with high pressure over
the northern gulf coast and lower pressures over the western high
plains. A weak land breeze component is expected overnight near
the bays with a weak sea breeze each aftn. Winds will probably
increase each night and will relax a bit each afternoon. Upper
level ridging and low level dry air should limit rain chances
through the end of the week. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 94 78 94 76 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 88 81 88 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

[DonWrk]

Looks like after anything today the faucet shuts off completely.

[aggiecutter]

The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory from noon Wednesday through 7 p.m. Thursday for Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Southeast Oklahoma.

According to the advisory afternoon heat indices will range from 105 to 108 degrees each day due to a strong upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to expand northeast across much of the region Wednesday.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible.

[TheProfessor]

my car trips will not be fun the next few days, I don't have a working AC right now.

[Tireman4]

Stay safe out there folks....stay hydrated...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.AVIATION...
A brief window of MVFR cigs will mix out by mid morning with
generally clear skies expected areawide by this evening. Fcst
soundings show a much drier moisture profile tonight into early
Thursday and don`t think MVFR cigs will be a likely Thursday
morning. Winds will generally remain less than 10 knots through
the TAF period. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging continues to build over Texas early this morning,
with this feature expected to anchor itself over the region later
today into Thursday. This will keep hot, humid, and dry conditions
in place across the region through the end of the week. Some
patchy fog and low stratus early this morning will dissipate by
mid-morning, with party cloudy skies allowing highs in to rise
into the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland.

Recent rainfall and onshore flow will keep dew points elevated in
the 70s again today and tomorrow, but dry southwest flow above the
surface through the mixed layer (to around 5000 ft) and some
daytime mixing will allow for dew points this afternoon to drop
near to a few degrees below what they reached yesterday (low-mid
70s). This will keep heat index values generally in the 100 to 107
range today and tomorrow and will continue to advertise heat
concerns with an areawide Special Weather Statement.

The upper ridge begins to retrograde westward by Friday. This
will allow low level southwest flow to back and weaken with dew
points remaining elevated into the afternoon hours Friday and
Saturday. As a result, both of these days will need to be
monitored for potential heat advisories as heat index values
continue to increase.

Medium range guidance continues to advertise the development of
some kind of tropical system in the Bay of Campeche this weekend
(currently sitting at a 20% chance of development into a tropical
cyclone over the next 5 days). While this will remain an area to
monitor over the coming days, the strength of the upper ridge
(impressive 600-601 decameter heights over Colorado/New Mexico by
Saturday) and Southeast Texas` location on its southern periphery
look to keep anything that develops well south of the region.

Northeast flow aloft becomes established Saturday with the ridge
centered northwest of the region. This will help cool high
temperatures a bit (highs in the low to mid 90s) and bring rain
chances back to the region at the beginning of the week. A weak
disturbance tracking under the ridge will provide enough lift for
shower and thunderstorm development on Sunday as it sends a weak
backdoor cold front into the region. Easterly surface flow in the
wake of the front looks to be short-lived, with southeast winds
resuming and drawing another wave of tropical moisture back into
the region Monday and Tuesday. This will keep rain chances in the
forecast through the beginning of next week.

Huffman

MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern is in place with generally light to
moderate southerly winds. A sea breeze may develop each afternoon
and push inland with weak offshore land breeze winds along the coast
in the morning. Winds may increase each night and relax a bit each
afternoon. Upper level high pressure will limit thunderstorm chances
the rest of the week. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 75 95 75 94 / 10 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 96 76 96 75 95 / 10 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 91 81 89 / 10 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

[Tireman4]

222
FXUS64 KHGX 151755
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1255 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.AVIATION...
Forecast this TAF period a little tricky for ceilings and
flight category. Persistence would argue for a period of MVFR conditions
and lower cigs late tonight and Saturday morning. However guidance
hints and slightly drier air in lowest levels. for this reason am
continuing current TAF thinking of more of a scattered lower deck
for IAH on south. MOS guidance generally supports this idea as
well. Did go with a period of lower cigs for CXO...UTS and CLL in
line with peristance and GFS MOS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface obs show temps in the mid/upper 80s with dewpoints
in the mid/upper 70s. There are even some dewpoints along the
coast in the low 80s. Heat index values are reaching up into the
mid/upper 90s yet again. Heat will be the main concern today but
may be a bit more tricky. SW winds will allow for some mixing
today with skies clearing back to the SW of Houston on visible
satellite imagery. Dewpoints could mix into the upper 60s which
may keep the heat index lower. High res mesoscale models show
sea/bay breeze working into Houston and coastal areas later this
evening. While temperatures may be dropping off a bit, dewpoints
could spike up into the upper 70s/low 80s behind the sea breeze
this evening. This could allow for heat index values back close to
105F even from 5-7PM this evening. Heat will continue for the next
several days so will have to closely monitor heat index forecast.
Possible that a heat advisory may be needed towards the end of the
week. Heat advisory criteria is 108F for SE Texas and will be
getting close to that Friday and Saturday.

[Rgv20]

Current Temperature....101F Heat Index 112F. It feels horrible outside!

[Tireman4]

Here too RGV...96...heat index close to 108...ughh... I hate Summer!

00
FXUS64 KHGX 152038
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis at 20Z had a lee trough over the high plains of
Texas with weak high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
There is enough of of a pressure gradient to support moderate S/SW
winds which has allowed from some mixing of drier air from the mid
levels of the atmosphere. That said, surface dewpoints are still
in the low/mid 70s with upper 70s along the coast. Temperatures
have reached the mid 90s which has supported heat index values
around 102-106F. Galveston has hit 105-108F at times early this
afternoon.

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge positioned over
much of S Texas. Forecast models are in pretty good agreement with
this ridge slowly retrograding and expanding over the southern
Rockies for the end of the week and weekend. Heights at 500mb
reach 598-600 decameters by Sunday over the S Rockies with 591
decameters mover SE Texas. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models are all in
pretty good agreement with this scenario going into the weekend.

As typical for summer in Texas, this will support hot conditions
through the end of the week. High temperatures will likely be in
the mid 90s and perhaps hit upper 90s in a few spots. While low
level moisture will mix some, dewpoints will still be high enough
to support high heat index values. We will be watching
temperature/dewpoint trends but possible that a head advisory will
be needed Friday and maybe Saturday for heat index values 108F or
greater. As a reminder, please be careful in the heat as even for
early/mid June this is a bit warmer than normal and people are not
used to the heat. Limit outside activities, take breaks, drink
water, check on elderly and kids. Check the back seat of your car
if you have kids. Use lots of sunscreen.

Sunday through Tuesday next week...GFS/ECMWF and to a lesser
degree the Canadian all bring a short wave into SE Texas under the
ridge Saturday night into Sunday. The corresponds with an increase
in moisture with precipitable water values reaching 2 inches
mainly along the coast. There seems to be some building
consistency for this scenario so increased rain chances to 40
percent for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. With
moisture that high and weak upper level winds, heavy rainfall will
be possible and some storms could produce high rain rates. Rain
chances look to persist Monday into Tuesday. This will largely
depend upon how quickly the ridge builds back over Texas. ECMWF is
much stronger with the ridge than the GFS Monday into Tuesday.

There has been some discussion of possible tropical activity in
the Bay of Campeche Sunday into Monday as a tropical wave moves
across the Yucatan. Models continue to keep this feature south
into Mexico which given the strength of the upper level ridge,
make sense. We will obviously continue to monitor this in the
forecast data, but we are not expecting any development that will
affect the Texas coast.

Overpeck

&&

.MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern is in place with generally
light to moderate southerly winds due to high pressure ridge over
the Gulf. Upper level high pressure will limit thunderstorm chances
the rest of the week. Winds become more southeasterly over the
weekend as surface high builds over the Southeast and tropical wave
crosses the Bay of Campeche. The upper level high will weaken
allowing for rain chances back over the waters Saturday night and
Sunday. 46


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 95 75 94 75 / 0 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 96 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 91 81 89 79 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39
Aviation/Marine...46

[JDawg512]

EWX afternoon discussion isn't very optimistic about rain chances next week. June is typically the second wettest month of the year but the dry season has started early for the Austin area. It's good that Lake Travis has a chance to come down but it would be nice to see a little more consistency with distribution of rainfall for central/south central Texas especially this time of year.

[Brent]

The 12z GFS is awful... 0.02" of rain through 16 days(that gets us into July).

0.30" for Austin.. but almost half of that falls at 384 hours.

It seems kind of early to be starting the dry hot season.

[Ntxw]

We better count our blessings for all that rain and wet soils. This ridge building across the US means business. If you thought the ridge in 2011 was bad, this dog is stronger. According to Maue's tweets only a handful of them get this strong. Mid to upper 90s (heat advisory is due to the humidity exceeding 105) is having it easy. If we didn't have the soils we do, we would be cranking like in 1980 105+ moving towards the solstice. Just ask Phoenix and the SW 120+ records.

[Brent]

If you think it's bad here... it's forecast to be 119 on Monday in Phoenix and the AFD mentions desert locations may struggle to fall below 90 at night...

[Tireman4]

Yeah...600 decimeters...that is no joke...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 161251
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
751 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

.AVIATION...
LIFR/MVFR cigs developing over mainly the northern/western half
of the region. MVFR cigs very close to both IAH and HOU terminals.
Dry air aloft should begin to mix to the surface and expect cigs
to mix out by 15-16z. Generally clear skies expected this
afternoon with MVFR cigs expected late tonight into early Friday.
Light S-SW winds expected through the TAF period. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid continue to be the words of the day as area remains
dominated by area of high pressure aloft. We should see some low
clouds and fog around to start the day given the abundant low
level moisture in place, however sunny skies will once again
prevail by late morning. This will quickly make conditions quite
uncomfortable once again today, beginning mid to late morning
along the coast and early afternoon inland. We expect some mixing
to help with heat indicies this afternoon. However, maximum HIs in
the 104-108 range are expected across the area as afternoon temps
warm well into the mid 90s. While just below our `criteria` for
heat advisories in southeast TX, it will be close enough to
warrant one given the first real `heat` of the season and to be
consistent with neighboring offices. We can expect these hot and
humid conditions to hold through Saturday, before increasing
clouds and rain chances begin overspreading the region on Sunday.
This will occur as ely mid level flow aloft under strong upper
high to the north becomes established, and a weak shortwave trough
moves across the area. Rain chances will remain in the forecast
into Tuesday, before we return to a near normal forecast by the
middle of next week with highs in the lower to mid 90s with slgt
rain chances each afternoon.

Evans

MARINE...

A typical summertime pattern is in place with generally
light to moderate southerly winds. Winds become more southeasterly
over the weekend as surface high pressure builds over the Southeast
U.S. and a tropical wave crosses the Bay of Campeche. The upper
level high will weaken allowing for rain chances back over the
waters Saturday night through Monday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 76 96 / 0 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 89 80 89 / 0 0 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...
Burleson...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...
Grimes...Harris...Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...
Matagorda...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...48
Aviation/Marine...43

[gboudx]

Maybe wxman57 can finally take off his sweater when biking.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Really glad that high pressure dome isnt super close to us. Going to be miserable out west this weekend.

[Brent]

Looks like DFW could hit 100 tomorrow... 2 weeks ahead of schedule.

I really hope this isn't a sign of July/August...

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161556
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1056 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

.UPDATE...

Meteorology says the area will reach a peak heat index of
104-108F which will be close enough to keep heat advisory today.
We will likely issue a heat advisory for tomorrow and may be
needed Saturday for similar conditions even though we will not
reach the 108 heat index criteria. Reality is that these values
are still high for mid June which means people will not be
acclimated to the heat. A heat index of 105F is still dangerous
enough in June to cause heat related illnesses. Main changes to
the forecast were to just update Temperature/Dewpoint trends to
make sure apparent temperatures are on track for the area. Heat
will have less of an impact on Sunday when temperatures will be
lower due to cloud cover and possible thunderstorm activity.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 75 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 77 95 76 96 / 0 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 80 89 / 0 0 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39

[weatherdude1108]

I have soil cracks developing in my beds outside, already, approaching two weeks without rain. Scary how fast the pattern changed. I miss the rain already.