Texas Summer 2025

[HockeyTx82]

I've been watching Reed Timmer live on YouTube, he intercepted that thing head on.

At one point there was two tornadoes on the ground.

The dominator hass been beaten apart.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/collinmyerswx/status/1930794568078794889

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/backpirchcrew/status/1930797557032108337

[Texas Snowman]

Man, that could have been bad…

 https://x.com/pettuswx/status/1930785078080102827

[Stratton23]

Cant believe I didnt know about this tornado until i saw a live video on X, jeez thats an impressive one! Hopefully its out in an open field and away from any populated areas

[Brent]

Another 5am wakeup call here what a spring this has been. Hope it continues into the summer at least somewhat

Totally rid of the drought statewide when we were on fire over spring break just hard to believe. I never imagined this flip would be so historic tbh

[wxman22]

Enhanced risk already issued for Sunday Day 3. Looks like a Derecho may form could be a big weather day in NW Texas, SPC is mentioning the possibility of destructive winds. Watching it closely…

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TX
PANHANDLE TO WESTERN NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM
SOUTHEAST VA TO SOUTH GA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into
western north Texas from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very
large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central
States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will slowly move southeast across the
Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will drift east into
northwest ON, with an occluded cold front arcing south then
southwestward across the Mid-MS Valley to the south-central High
Plains by Sunday afternoon. A lower-amplitude mid-level trough, with
embedded MCVs from prior D2 convection, should shift east from the
eastern Midwest/OH Valley across the Appalachians by Sunday evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during
late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D2 in the
wake of multiple MCSs, buoyancy should become large to extreme from
the TX Panhandle across the OK/TX Red River Valley by Sunday
afternoon. Guidance remains quite insistent on initial convective
development occurring as the trailing cold front pushes south into
the OK/TX Panhandles. With mid to upper wind profiles becoming
west-northwesterly, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong
instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very
large hail. Consolidating outflows and a strengthening low-level jet
in the evening will yield increasingly widespread storms that should
congeal into a forward-propagating MCS. This type of setup is
conducive to potentially intense MCS development and destructive
wind gusts. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist
overnight perhaps reaching the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

[ElectricStorm]

Got woken up by thunder and checked the radar and saw I was on the eastern edge of another tornado warning, so that was fun at 4am lol. This MCS was much better than the last one a few days ago. Looks like we'll be doing it again tonight as well and probably Sunday.

[Stratton23]

new 3-4 week oitlook issued from NOAA, wet pattern continues into the first week of july

[txtwister78]

Active pattern shifts south next week across SC TX offering up more chances for beneficial rainfall across the region.

In addition, we need to watch the tropics as the Euro has been a little more bullish bringing in tropical moisture up from the BOC and gulf into South Texas possibly extending our rain chances.

Overall, not bad for a June outlook. Bonus territory here so hopefully we can delay the inevitable (brutal weeks of summer heat) while continuing to chip away at our drought.

[wxman22]

Large supercells ongoing in west Texas.

[rwfromkansas]

Tennis bal hail on that tornadic cell heading toward southern Lubbock. My wife's brother is right in that path...

[rwfromkansas]

Luckily the Lubbock cell turned right, so hail core south of the city.

[wxman22]

Enhanced Risk expanded to include all of North Texas. The SPC mentions that 80-100mph winds are possible.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN
TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM
THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during
late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the
wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will
become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9
C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front
from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon.

With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal
intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as
the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the
eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance
continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along
and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles
from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the
strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable
of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows,
further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west
TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that
should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS.
This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures
capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes.
The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the
development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail
potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in
spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley.

[Brent]

News just had big supercells over OKC during the Thunder game tomorrow night that looked awful

Let's hope that does not verify

Then it turns into a big line heading for DFW

[wxman22]

I wouldn't be surprised if a moderate risk for wind is eventually issued.

[Ntxw]

Yeah not saying there's going to be some relentless heatwave. Just that typical summer climo pattern will kick in week 2. Analogs suggest a hot spell in the midwest and Ohio valleys and the core won't be for us, but given time of year you're still talking 95-100F type temps which will be a step up. Looking like a normal summer so far. We're so used to exceptional start to heat so this 'normal' feels nice!

The key in late June and July is to continue on and off chances for rain.

No change in this thinking so far. ENS still support a shift from Pac NW ridge to Pac NW trough. That's a broad signal to warm up. Week 3 above normal is getting closer to week 2. Roughly 1 to 1.5 weeks for a still relative wet pattern before the shift. 594dm+ ridge will set up shop from the southwest to central plains. We won't be the core but enough to tick temps upward. This will be the summer ridge for this season, it will meander.

[ElectricStorm]

I wouldn't be surprised if a moderate risk for wind is eventually issued.

Yep they just added one on the newest Day 2. Not surprising at all, looks dangerous

[wxman22]

I wouldn't be surprised if a moderate risk for wind is eventually issued.

Well there it is LOL. Moderate Risk issued for wind!

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and
Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE
(3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.

[Quixotic]

Possible derecho tomorrow?