Texas Fall 2025

[Ntxw]

Seasonably warm, and dry, week ahead. Average highs are around 90 and lows near 70, we'll be a little bit above that most days.

[rwfromkansas]

I don't really know Max, but he was on a panel with the NWA yesterday so he seems to have some credibility beyond the usual hypers.

[txtwister78]

Another weekend of decent rainfall accumulation across SC TX. All totaled many across the region including within the SA metro picked up a solid 2-3 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts of 4-5. We keep chipping away at this lingering drought from SA points west/south so that's encouraging.

The next 7-10 days looks quiet overall on the weather map across most of our state with some heat/drier conditions returning.

Always nice to see folks take a shot at a winter forecast several months away but by in large rarely do those verify region to region. Still a ton of uncertainty among some of the key drivers and small changes can stil equate to big changes in the overall pattern but should be fun to track nonetheless.

[Ntxw]

https://youtu.be/QxymIc0HYPw?feature=shared

Does anyone have a thought on this guy's forecast or his history?

Just another clickbate YouTuber?

I dunno man I'm keeping my expectations very low. Most of the analogs here that I found so far have sucked

People are wanting to equate a cool wet summer to a cold snowy winter but honestly our snowiest winter here was between two of the worst summers we've ever seen so yeah I dunno

Also the two wettest years here it barely snowed in the winter and so far were still on pace for a very wet year... Heck they were among the warmest winters we've seen even

I mean it's not hopeless 2020 was an easy summer too but its literally like all over the place

Of course last winter our biggest snowstorm here came out of nowhere with no hype too so... That was the same storm the Euro kept showing a foot in DFW and all the snow south of us

And by sunset the very next day 80 percent of the snow was gone because temperatures were so borderline even up here

One thing to kind of hint right now, I've been trying to map out some potential analogs (early take it for what it's worth) and 2013 keeps coming up on lists. We're starting to come down from solar peak, same as back then, at the northeastern part of the Pacific most of that year kept favoring ridges and +SSTA. The SSTA part is the harder to predict variable because of the overall gradient shifting north causing all parts of the NPAC to be above normal so more difficult to filter what's background warming and what's a potential pattern shift. Still nonetheless, if we were to factor solar, 500mb ridge/trough patterns, enso, a 2013-ish type year would be a weighted possibility.

[Ralph's Weather]

55 in Lindale this morning.

I do see analogs for 13/14 winter as being applicable. We will see but I'll take my chances on a low solar and warm GoA.

[gpsnowman]

55 in Lindale this morning.

I do see analogs for 13/14 winter as being applicable. We will see but I'll take my chances on a low solar and warm GoA.

The past is fading. Was 13/14 the winter DFW had a 12 day stretch in late February which included three different winter events with lows in the teens early March?

[HockeyTx82]

I asked Copilot this, What are your thoughts on the upcoming winter based on analogs as well as model trends regarding El Nino versus La Nina for Texas, and here is what it output.


Winter 2025–2026 Outlook for Texas: ENSO Analogs and Model Trends

ENSO Forecast and Model Signals

NOAA’s latest ENSO forecast points to La Niña conditions prevailing from September 2025 through at least January 2026, with better than a 50 percent chance of sea‐surface temperature anomalies remaining below –0.5 °C in the Niño 3.4 region.

The Climate Prediction Center’s December 2025–February 2026 outlook shows elevated probabilities for above-normal temperatures across much of Texas, while precipitation is favored to run below normal over West and Central Texas—echoing typical La Niña impacts in the Southern U.S.

---

Lessons from Historical La Niña Analogs

La Niña winters in Texas almost always skew warmer and drier than average.
- Moderate events (e.g., late 2010s) brought statewide temperature surpluses of 1–2 °F and suppressed rainfall west of I-35, with only pockets of normal precipitation in the Piney Woods.
- Even weak La Niñas can spawn occasional deep‐freeze intrusions when Arctic air funnels south—illustrated by the February 2021 cold snap—yet overall moisture remains below long-term averages.

---

Expected Impacts on Texas

- Temperature: A mild winter is likely, with fewer sustained cold stretches and fewer sub‐freezing days across North and Central Texas.
- Precipitation: Drought persistence or even expansion remains a key concern, especially over the Hill Country and Trans-Pecos, unless a cutoff storm pattern surprises.
- Storm Risk: Ice and rare snow events can’t be ruled out if polar vortex dips coincide with local disturbances, but widespread wintry outbreaks will probably be less frequent than during El Niño winters.

---

Preparation and Strategies

1. Water Management
- Reinforce irrigation plans and landscape drought buffers now; expect limited natural recharge.
2. Freeze Protection
- Keep freeze‐sock materials and pipe insulation ready for short but sharp cold snaps.
3. Drought Monitoring
- Use local soil-moisture and reservoir gauges to track any worsening; coordinate with municipal water plans.
4. Flexibility for Late-Season Shifts
- Watch for any ENSO weakening or transition toward neutral conditions after January, which could open a wetter window in late winter.

---

Stay tuned to NOAA’s weekly ENSO updates and the CPC’s monthly seasonal outlooks—real-time model tweaks can adjust the probabilities, especially if we slide back toward neutral conditions in early 2026.

[Ralph's Weather]

55 in Lindale this morning.

I do see analogs for 13/14 winter as being applicable. We will see but I'll take my chances on a low solar and warm GoA.

The past is fading. Was 13/14 the winter DFW had a 12 day stretch in late February which included three different winter events with lows in the teens early March?

Yes, that is the one. In ETX we had winter precip events between Valentines and Spring Break. Also Dec 13 was the historic sleet event in DFW. 14/15 was similar with a very cold spell in Nov and a wintery late winter early spring.
It's not sustained cold but more of a rollercoaster with one or two extended outbreaks.

[Ntxw]

2013-2014 wasn't earmarked by exceptional cold like 2021, or even the past 2 season's January outbreaks. What made it a good winter was -WPO/-EPO, very good Pacific blocking. You had cold waves every week or other week from late November to March and lows were consistently at or below freezing for many nights. It lacked winter warmth for any extended period. We'll have to see if that kind of winter pans out, we've had some fairly large volcanic activity the past year or two and there usually is a winter like '13-'14 coming from peak solar.

To date winter thread 2013-2014 (Texas) still remains the most pages at 501 due the frequency of cold and winter weather threats.

[Brent]

Yeah I dunno I mean last year had the worst snowstorm ever in Florida of all places so like I don't think anyone knows what's going happen

Or just like for two winters in a row the snow went around us and then the time it's supposed to go around us it just never stopped snowing in January there was also the flizzard as the Florida storm blew up when we were supposed to be too dry

But then if February proved anything to me is I don't really care about the -20 wind chills. The snow fell flat to me after January. Give me a borderline snow setup any day of the week I mean literally it snowed all day in February for a measley 2 inches whereas January was 6-8

Honestly we have done better with La Nina lately if we're really in a La Nina the super El Ninos have flooded us with pacific air

[gpsnowman]

55 in Lindale this morning.

I do see analogs for 13/14 winter as being applicable. We will see but I'll take my chances on a low solar and warm GoA.

The past is fading. Was 13/14 the winter DFW had a 12 day stretch in late February which included three different winter events with lows in the teens early March?

Yes, that is the one. In ETX we had winter precip events between Valentines and Spring Break. Also Dec 13 was the historic sleet event in DFW. 14/15 was similar with a very cold spell in Nov and a wintery late winter early spring.
It's not sustained cold but more of a rollercoaster with one or two extended outbreaks.

I thought so. Way too much warmth in between winter periods if I remember. I'd like a cold start to fall this year. And obviously a cold winter with the warmer stretches short lived. One can hope.

[Brent]

The past is fading. Was 13/14 the winter DFW had a 12 day stretch in late February which included three different winter events with lows in the teens early March?

Yes, that is the one. In ETX we had winter precip events between Valentines and Spring Break. Also Dec 13 was the historic sleet event in DFW. 14/15 was similar with a very cold spell in Nov and a wintery late winter early spring.
It's not sustained cold but more of a rollercoaster with one or two extended outbreaks.

I thought so. Way too much warmth in between winter periods if I remember. I'd like a cold start to fall this year. And obviously a cold winter with the warmer stretches short lived. One can hope.

14-15 is the one that I remember in DFW with the dusting in November and then nothing else til the 2 weeks of winter at the end of February early March my first winter in Dallas

13-14 I was still back east and that was the infamous inch of snow shut down Alabama storm the cobblestone ice in DFW before Christmas

15-16 is when the horrible winters started even up here. 15 was a very wet year like this year and the winter sucked is what I was talking about earlier. That's why I'm trying to keep my expectations low for now

I'm hoping we stay towards La Nina that seems to be helping us more than El Nino which was Pacific air last time

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps as low as 50 this morning across E TX. Generally in the mid 50s. 53 at my house right now in Lindale.

[TropicalTundra]

59 IMBY this morning. Not gonna lie, i shivered a little while letting the dog out to pee.