Severe Weather Potential Friday the 13th and MLK Day?

[WaitingForSiren]

SVR theat appears to have dimished over the region...pretty much went as I expected. Isolated damaging winds and brief tornadoes. So much for SPC's "moderate risk".

Seriously though, wtf were SPC smoking when they went with the moderate risk? It was obvious a LONG time ago that this wasnt going to be a big event, just way too many negative factors. Reminds of of back in March when there were like 4 busts in a row. All were fairly obvious it was going to bust, well except one time when supercells did blow up but remained elevated, so I cant blame them for that. Although, i admit even that time they overforecasted it when it was becoming obvious the outbreak wasnt going to happen.

[mike815]

nope no outbreak but i got something to follow storms blew here an hr ago and some other locations still might get nailed but there was no outbreak but also someone was lkilled so that was pretty bad

[WaitingForSiren]

Has the death been confirmed? On the storm report list it just says "15 injured"

[mike815]

actually good quest. not sure if it is 8 twisters i know that

[Brent]

Has the death been confirmed? On the storm report list it just says "15 injured"

Yes... it's been all over the news here. The 15 injured is NOT the same tornado. That's the one that hit the school in Florida. The death was in Conecuh County, Alabama.

[mike815]

yeah ok the death was in alabama

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah, i just realized that right now. One of the storm reports was messed up. usually it sayd the number injured or dead in red next to the report, but this time it didnt.

I stillconsider this a total bust. I mean, the fatality and injuries are mainly due to mobile homes, had these tornadoes occured in Texas or something Im sure nobody would have been hurt. Still bad that someone had to die though.

Thats the thing about severe weather...I always hope for a major tornado outbreak as it is adrenaline pumping, but if put in the position to be hit by things like that I realize how horrifying it really is. When i get hit by severe weather, i am pumped up at first but when i realize the danger of the situation i actually get a little scared.

[Brent]

I stillconsider this a total bust. I mean, the fatality and injuries are mainly due to mobile homes, had these tornadoes occured in Texas or something Im sure nobody would have been hurt. Still bad that someone had to die though.

Oh it was defintely a bust. The NWS has preliminary ranked the deadly tornado at F1. I've seen slight risks with numerous small tornadoes that have killed people before, the moderate obviously didn't verify.

[wxmann_91]

Despite the death (and thoughts and prayers for their family), overall this MDT busted in a big way. I thought this morning they were going to reduce the threat to SLGT, guess they didn't do that since now it looks more like a tornado threat instead of a derecho. Still though I believe they should've. There is this one promising cell south of Waycross, GA, but everything else is either linear or offshore. And just to put it into perspective on how big this bust is, there were 54 reports of svr yesterday total, and 19 today. Unless something big manages to happen soon, today's MDT will be history by the 1Z outlook (in half an hour).

[mike815]

yeah i guess it was oh well still was damage and injuries but a bust it was

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah yesterdays squall line was much more impressive. sure the storm is stronger now and the moisture is better, but when you have a mature squall line its hard to get it to strengthen during the daytime. If the squall line hadn't formed yet it would be different,though.

[WaitingForSiren]

And i should add that todays event was about as bad as the time when SPC had a moderate risk over much of the east after hurricane katrina came ashore...that was a TOTAL bust. They must have issued 20 tornado watches those few days, but how many tornadoes happened...1 or 2?

[wxmann_91]

And i should add that todays event was about as bad as the time when SPC had a moderate risk over much of the east after hurricane katrina came ashore...that was a TOTAL bust. They must have issued 20 tornado watches those few days, but how many tornadoes happened...1 or 2?

That verified much better than today, there were I think about 30 tornadoes from Katrina. I think you are thinking about Wilma.

[wxmann_91]

Yeah yesterdays squall line was much more impressive. sure the storm is stronger now and the moisture is better, but when you have a mature squall line its hard to get it to strengthen during the daytime. If the squall line hadn't formed yet it would be different,though.

Actually I don't believe that was why. It was completely about the lack of moisture. Look at KJAX radar you will see why. The cell south of Waycross, GA is struggling as its updraft is being sheared apart. Lacking a stronger updraft due to low CAPE's, the shear is actually too strong. On the other hand, look at the monster cell southeast of St. Augustine, FL. Very nice hook as it is gaining classic supercell structure. Thankfully it is offshore.

This demonstrates the reason why this event didn't produce. Winds in the Gulf of Mexico have been mainly west to east, and thus, a) moisture cannot be advected very far northward, and b) Storms will move very fast to the east, offshore, if they form in the only place they can form and maintain discrete/supercellular characteristics, Florida. A few miles to the west/a few hours earlier and that massive supercell is over St. Augustine.

[WaitingForSiren]

I meant in the few days AFTER katrina made landfall, not THE day she made landfall. There was a MODT risk out over much of the east and only a few weak tornadoes occured. It was fairly obvious early on that the outbreak wasnt going to happen on august 30th.

[wxmann_91]

I meant in the few days AFTER katrina made landfall, not THE day she made landfall. There was a MODT risk out over much of the east and only a few weak tornadoes occured. It was fairly obvious early on that the outbreak wasnt going to happen on august 30th.

Sorry for the misunderstanding. Yeah you're right, only eight tornadoes occurred.

Update: new SWODY1 is SLGT.

[mike815]

yup 8 tornadoes happ. yeah SPC makes me wonder what there thinking

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah i guess. But i think the main limiting factor was the lack of any cap. Yesterday, the storms broke through the cap around sunset /in the evening and that allowed all the instability to let them become severe. Today, with not much surface heating and an already mature line, the only thing that can really go on to produce severe weather are the cells that pop up ahead or within the line. either way, there just wasnt enough instability around. then again, it is really hard to build a good enough cap so close to the gulf. Makes you realize how potent the storms must have been that produced the Enigma Outbreak and such

[WaitingForSiren]

And the funny thing is that spc still has a 25% area for wind damage across Florida when there is no linear convection to be seen, and most the storms have moved offshore. WTF?

[mike815]

im wondering the line in the gulf is looking better so i wonder if there will be watch im confused about this also i wonder with this line because im in the 25 percent risk the line is stronger hmmm......