Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

[therock1811]

It's up! Head for the link in my previous post and then it's under the thunderbolt...you really can't miss it. For the sake of correctness I am reposting the disclaimer.

Disclaimer: This video forecast is NOT an offical product of the SPC and should not be referred to as such. This is only the opinion of the poster and not of storm2k.org or any professional organization. This may or may not be based on solid meteorology findings. For offical info please refer to the SPC and NWS information.

[Skywatch_NC]

Have been having trouble with my computer speakers for some time now and still haven't been able to pinpoint the problem.

********

On another note...S2K friends who live in the Plains and Midwest take care in the coming few days and my prayers and thoughts are with you. As well as family members and other friends in MO, IN and OH.

Eric

[WaitingForSiren]

latest SPC forecasts are pretty ugly for Thursday...just 15% over a large area. I have a hard time believing that when we have a >=985 mb low to work with. I think this has the potential to really go to town and I still think it will. If supercells develop, they will be fast movers. The question I have is how much dry air gets wrapped in? Well, if we play the cars right i could see a strong dry line set up due to A. dry air over texas and oklahoma due to lack of rains and B. strong vort max moving in from the southwest rapidly. I still think that if enough clearing/instability develops this could be the biggest outbreak of this entire year. I'll make a new map later today when 18z models come in and after seeing spc's new day 2 outlook.

[wx247]

Just catching up on reading everyone's thoughts here and at JSquared. Quite a lot of factors coming into play. This is an area that is not good for chasing so suprisingly chase sites have been pretty mum on its potential.

Tornado and hail potential begins today across Kansas and Oklahoma. I will keep an eye on it.

[TexasStooge]

i don't know if this has been mentioned or not, but here is a really bad timing for a radar to go down for maintence. The Kansas City radar is going to be down most of the week for repairs. Crews from Norman, OK are working on the radar this week, and it will be down.

Got the same thing today:

(Mimicking) "Radar Temporarily Down for maintenance." How convenient.

[gboudx]

Got the same thing today:

(Mimicking) "Radar Temporarily Down for maintenance." How convenient.

If the NWS radar isn't back up tomorrow, use intellicast. It seems to be fairly accurate.

[WaitingForSiren]

*The following images are NOT official forecasts, they are the opinion of the person posting them and THAT IS ALL*







Alright these are my final graphics unless something significant happens. I will, however, make a new graphic tomorrow for the current severe threat and then again on thursday about the then inpending threat. Again, I am not trying to blow this out of proportion. I have been studying weather patterns and I think I have a decent eye view of when a severe weather outbreak is or isnt going to happen. I think wednesday moisture return will be faster than expected since models do a bad job with that kind of stuff, and given the intense low which almost ALWAYS means faster moisture return (think november 15, november 27 and march 29 2005). So thats where i get my idea for wednesday, then on thursday wednesdays leftover confection rapidly moves northward and a dry slot sets up for at least brief sunlight across the high risk area. This combined with amazing dynamics and ample moisture should result in a significant if not major outbreak of severe thunderstorms and potentially, tornadoes.

Also, this coming weekend already is looking active. Severe storms in the plains/missouri valley and snowstorm possible in the north. Finally, a fun stretch of weather.

[jasons2k]

Do you think you might be a tad east with those projections?

[WaitingForSiren]

I dont think so.

[jasons2k]

I agree with you on the models not handling the moisture return all that well, but I think if it's going to really juice up, the system can't eject as quickly as you have indicated. Just my $.02.

[TexasStooge]

Got the same thing today:

(Mimicking) "Radar Temporarily Down for maintenance." How convenient.

If the NWS radar isn't back up tomorrow, use intellicast. It seems to be fairly accurate.

They're back up...for now.

[CrazyC83]

I'm new here - had visited this site a while back after a long time working on weather projects at Wikipedia (and creating several weather event articles).

I smell a potential tornado outbreak starting tomorrow afternoon through Friday, particularly Thursday. At this point, this almost reminds me of November 15th...so fortunate nothing hit any urban areas that day or we would have had a major catastrophe...

[wxmann_91]

For those thinking tornado outbreak, the truth is Wednesday may see more tornadoes than Thursday. What will happen is though moisture transport and thus LCL's will be marginal, at least the storm mode will be supercellular on Wednesday. On Thursday, with linear forcing, unidirectional wind profiles, and a nonexistant cap, a squall line will form and overtake any supercells that can manage to form ahead of the line, thus cutting down on tornadic potential. However, the more sups ahead of the line that form, the more tornadoes there will be, but this will probably be a wind event for Thursday. This is pretty much reworded material from pro-forecasters/mets on other forums.

[CrazyC83]

Interesting...I know today (Tuesday) was mostly a hail event in the central Plains; there were no tornadoes and little was expected despite the intense conditions.

Also remember that this is the beginning of the spring tornado season - this is like a hurricane in July...I'd put it at Level 3 alert. (Level 1 means possible minor activity, Level 5 means major outbreak likely)

[therock1811]

New Video Forecast posted to my podomatic page under the www link in my profile. As always the following disclaimer applies:

This video forecast is NOT an offical product of the SPC and should not be referred to as such. This is only the opinion of the poster and not of storm2k.org or any professional organization. This may or may not be based on solid meteorology findings. For offical info please refer to the SPC and NWS information.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I will just be interested in seeing if the cap holds down here in SE Texas. We will have perfect dynamics, but with the cap...severe weather should stay north. According to the NWS though..."If the cap breaks, all bets are off". Could get interesting if that happens.

[wx247]

Good morning everyone. NWS hitting severe threat here hard today.

We shall see what transpires. I at least hope we get the rain!

[CrazyC83]

Nothing really has happened yet...no watches or warnings.

[jasons2k]

SPC has just issued an outlook upgrade discussion - risk will be upgraded to Moderate over Arklatex region and will carry over into Day 2 as well (further E).

[SamSagnella]

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR DAMAGING WIND AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT ACROSS OUTLINED REGION