February 5-6: Super Tuesday Outbreak... 57 dead

[CrazyC83]

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 32
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM UNTIL
100 AM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST OF
DANVILLE ILLINOIS TO 5 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL
IL. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING IN REGION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART


SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 32
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM UNTIL
100 AM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST OF
DANVILLE ILLINOIS TO 5 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL
IL. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING IN REGION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 050111
WOU2

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 32
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC005-013-017-019-021-023-027-029-035-039-041-045-049-051-053-
061-075-083-091-105-107-113-115-117-119-125-129-133-135-137-139-
147-149-163-167-171-173-179-183-050700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0032.080205T0115Z-080205T0700Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOND CALHOUN CASS
CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK
CLINTON COLES CUMBERLAND
DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FORD
GREENE IROQUOIS JERSEY
KANKAKEE LIVINGSTON LOGAN
MACON MACOUPIN MADISON
MASON MCLEAN MENARD
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
MOULTRIE PIATT PIKE
SANGAMON SCOTT SHELBY
ST. CLAIR TAZEWELL VERMILION


INC007-073-089-111-127-050700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0032.080205T0115Z-080205T0700Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON PORTER


MOC007-009-011-015-019-027-029-039-043-051-055-057-059-065-071-
073-077-085-097-099-105-109-113-119-125-131-135-139-141-145-151-
161-163-167-169-173-183-185-189-209-215-217-219-221-225-229-510-
050700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0032.080205T0115Z-080205T0700Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUDRAIN BARRY BARTON
BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
COLE CRAWFORD DADE
DALLAS DENT FRANKLIN
GASCONADE GREENE HICKORY
JASPER JEFFERSON LACLEDE
LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARIES
MCDONALD MILLER MONITEAU
MONTGOMERY MORGAN NEWTON
OSAGE PHELPS PIKE
POLK PULASKI RALLS
ST. CHARLES ST. CLAIR ST. LOUIS
STONE TEXAS VERNON
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT


MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ST. LOUIS CITY


ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...LOT...ILX...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW2
WW 32 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MO 050115Z - 050700Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10E DNV/DANVILLE IL/ - 5WSW JLN/JOPLIN MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /27SW BVT - 30E OSW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

LAT...LON 39258741 36189458 38069458 41138741

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.


Watch 32 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

Southern Great Lakes:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IND...SRN MI...NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 050118Z - 050315Z

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE RISK SEEMS LOW.


A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC/CONFLUENCE ZONE HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
A RECENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE POLAR IMPULSE LIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
...AND AHEAD OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE TEXAS BIG BEND. AND...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY...INTO AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BORDER THROUGH THE
VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE BETWEEN NOW AND 04-06Z. STORMS WILL BE BASED
IN A MOIST LAYER ABOVE A SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL ZONE...BUT RELATIVELY
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE CAPE. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW...BUT SOME
SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.

..KERR.. 02/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

41368729 41788678 42138541 42298420 42588240 42608110
42168088 41258127 40758287 40468536 40288673 40498751

[RL3AO]

First warning

WUUS53 KILX 050131
SVRILX
ILC113-050215-
/O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0022.080205T0131Z-080205T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
731 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST.

* AT 731 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON...OR ABOUT 8 MILES
NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL MCLEAN COUNTY...

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS WARNING INCLUDE...LEXINGTON AND TOWANDA.

IF YOU IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING...BUT STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4072 8894 4074 8865 4059 8856 4049 8896
4064 8902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 252DEG 43KT 4061 8886

$$

HJS

[Weatherfreak14]

And the outbreak Begins.....

[CrazyC83]

In about 36 hours we will know the outcome...

[simplykristi]

Here we go. It is going to be a long 36 hours..

Kristi

[CrazyC83]

Tomorrow could be a long day. Unless of course it busts...will they go High Risk at 0600Z or will they hold it at Moderate?

[RL3AO]

I think they will hold at moderate at 6z.

[CrazyC83]

I think they will hold at moderate at 6z.

That is what I would do too, however a large and strongly-worded MDT with mention of an upgrade should conditions change. At 1300Z I would consider such. (The probs should be 15H tornado, 45H hail, 45 wind).

[icicle]

Good luck to us all thats at risk.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 050148Z - 050315Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE...NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE NOW RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SOME INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 04-05Z...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION...THE TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL WARMING...AHEAD OF THE
VIGOROUS POLAR IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...MAY
ULTIMATELY SUPPRESS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..KERR.. 02/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

35549708 35889673 36669588 37039512 36699453 36149475
35369585 35119691

[Coredesat]

There hasn't been a tornado outbreak yet. Why are we calling this one?

[HarlequinBoy]

There hasn't been a tornado outbreak yet. Why are we calling this one?

The title will be edited, I guess.

[RL3AO]

They issued the same MD 3 times (numbers 140, 141, and 142)

[HarlequinBoy]

^ Ha, yeah I noticed that. Weird.

SVR for Lincoln, Montgomery, and Pike in east central Missouri.

[SamSagnella]

Here in Norman we're poised to experience a cumulative Td change of >60oF today. We peaked at 59 at around 9AM before the dryline moved through from west-to-east, plummeting our dewpoint to a low of 28, which occurred at 5:15PM. The dryline is now knocking at our door (from the east this time), and, looking at the other local obs, it seems likely that we'll be back up to ~59oF by 10pm. WOW!

Also, with the more-rapid-than-anticipated Wwd retreat of the dryline, the severe threat for at least the Srn and Ern OKC metro area has increased rather dramatically. By the time the sfc cold front approaches from the N/NW later tonight, instability values should support fairly widespread severe activity in the moist sector, which (hooray for SDS-ing me) will include Cleveland County OK.

[HarlequinBoy]

SVR for St. Clair, Hickory, and Benton counties in central Missouri.

[HarlequinBoy]

If the dryline keeps moving west I think this might be a big outbreak for Arkansas.

SVR Calhoun, Greene, and Pike Counties in western Illinois.
SVR Hickory, Benton, and Camden Counties in central Missouri.

[HarlequinBoy]

SVR Sangamon, Macon, and Logan in Central Illinois until 945 PM.
SVR Lincoln County in East Central Missouri until 945 PM.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the dryline keeps moving west I think this might be a big outbreak for Arkansas.

SVR Calhoun, Greene, and Pike Counties in western Illinois.
SVR Hickory, Benton, and Camden Counties in central Missouri.

Discussions from Texas NWSFO earlier had the dry line retreating Westward in the overnight hours before surging forward again tomorrow.