Texas Fall 2013

[CaptinCrunch]

Just going over the 18zNAM data and all I can think of is wow.. Unreal.. North Texas is in for it...

This will be a firewood stock killer, I think I got just about 30 hrs worth of wood.

[ludosc]

Fort Worth still in the line of fire?

[joshskeety]

Btw all, I am going through the soundings for Weatherford, Texas meaning everything North and West of Tarrant county and the all are below freezing from 700mb all the way down, which means the last 6-8 hours of the event could see a major change over to snow..

FYI...

[joshskeety]

Fort Worth still in the line of fire?

Oh yea.. Ft. Worth has crosshairs right on it.. So sayeth all the models now... Minus the GFS of course.. lol

[ludosc]

Fort Worth still in the line of fire?

Oh yea.. Ft. Worth has crosshairs right on it.. So sayeth all the models now... Minus the GFS of course.. lol

Sweet. Went and picked me up a bottle of makers mark 46. I'm all set

[Rgv20]

Brownsville NWS afternoon discussion.....

FURTHER NORTH INTO HBV (Hebbronville)
AREA...12Z NAM SOUNDING SHOWING A FEW HOURS OF BELOW FREEZE TEMPS
IN THE PROFILE WHICH COULD DEVELOP A SOME ISOLATED GRAUPEL THAT
CAN REACH THE GROUND.

[joshskeety]

Tomorrow should be an okay day to go run any errands and stuff.. Some post frontal layer will deepen which will allow the ceiling to raise a bit while the atmosphere dries a bit.. Will seem okay when the temps get into the mid-30's but it will be a double edge sword because the dry atmosphere will allow dew points to drop and temps to drop when the sun goes down.. Then when the ceilings lower again late in the night tomorrow night and the moisture starts falling, the wetbulbs will force the temps to drop into the Upper 20's North and West, and near 30 around the rest of the Metroplex.. Then.. The fun will begin..

[srainhoutx]

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

VALID 00Z SAT NOV 23 2013 - 00Z TUE NOV 26 2013

...DAYS 1-3...

GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID-DAY MON. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ALREADY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT
APPEARS A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH...WITH A
FOCUS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT OVERALL BUT THE FORECAST WAS
WEIGHTED MOST TOWARD THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE 09Z SREF MEAN WAS
USED OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN ADDITION TO
THE NAM...BUT THE SREF WAS WEIGHTED LESS FROM SUN-MON GIVEN THE
BROAD NATURE OF ITS LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF.

FROM TONIGHT INTO SAT EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH STRONGLY DIFLUENT FLOW
IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SNOWFALL HERE WILL BE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WITH SNOW LEVELS ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FT - 7000 FT
FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA...BUT AN INITIALLY ROBUST STREAM
OF MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS MOISTURE
STREAM WEAKENS AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY ON SAT BUT
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TIED TO THE UPPER LOW AND LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS INTO THE WASATCH
OF UTAH AND SAN JUANS OF COLORADO. A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BUT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT A
MIXTURE OF SNOW/ICE TO MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO.

FROM SAT EVENING INTO SUN EVENING...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A 700 MB LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ELONGATE AND PERHAPS OPEN UP BY 00Z/25. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND 0.25 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH
A PROMINENT WARM NOSE CENTERED NEAR 750 MB AND COLD LAYER FIRMLY
IN PLACE VIA NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS FROM
48 HOURS AGO APPEAR TO BE POORLY RESOLVED WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF
COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...BUT IT IS NOT
CLEAR IF THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE SHORT RANGE WITH
TODAYS NAM/GFS. IT WAS GENERALLY NOTED THAT THE NAM WAS COLDER IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
THIS DIFFERENCE WAS SPLIT IN THE FORECAST THINKING IN AN ATTEMPT
TO MITIGATE THE KNOWN COLD BIAS IN THE NAM.

FROM SUN EVENING TO MON EVENING...REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BENEATH THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER LOW
BUT THE MOISTURE SOURCE WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH THE NAM/SREF DEPICTING 24 HR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF .50 TO 1.0
INCH FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF
DALLAS/FORT WORTH. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE BUT THE MODELS HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A .50 TO 1.5 INCH STRIPE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE 24 HRS ENDING 00Z/26 ACROSS TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE CO-LOCATED WITH A DEFINED WARM NOSE ATOP A DEFINED
SUB-FREEZING LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. QUESTIONS OF THE DEPTH
OF THE COLD DOME AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE STAYING BELOW FREEZING TO
SUPPORT ICE EXIST. PROBABILITIES REFLECT A LOW-MED CHANCE OF 0.25
INCHES OF ICE...WITH SLEET AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW FARTHER NORTH
TOWARD THE RED RIVER AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS FOR DAY 3.

[somethingfunny]

A couple of photos I saw on Facebook. First photo (the sleet) is from Palo Pinto. The second photo (the icing) is from Aledo. This doesn't bode well for anybody if we're getting icy accumulations already.

[wxman57]

Hey wxman57 long time lurker here very much appreciate reading your metro grams and your forecast how does Waco look to far winter weather wise in your opinion this weekend?

In Waco, I'd expect the main issue will be cold rain with some sleet mixed in. Possibly some ice forming on elevated surfaces tonight and on Sunday. Roads probably OK.

[joshskeety]

A couple of photos I saw on Facebook. First photo (the sleet) is from Palo Pinto. The second photo (the icing) is from Aledo. This doesn't bode well for anybody if we're getting icy accumulations already.

Yes, this is what I get to drive through in a few minutes.. Yea me..

[ndale]

The Austin nws is finally saying for Sunday night there MAY be some light freezing rain or sleet for metro Austin.

[weatherdude1108]

Trying to get back on the ball with my EWX postings.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS TAPERING
OFF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD DOME
NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT AMOUNTS AFTER SUNSET SHOULD BE IN THE TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNRISE. WE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN GILLESPIE AND
KERR COUNTIES. BETWEEN THE REPORTS AND EXPECTATION OF A STEADY
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE
BURNET...LLANO...BLANCO... AND KENDALL COUNTIES. WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN METRO AUSTIN OR SAN ANTONIO TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OF MOIST GULF
AIR CONTINUES OVER THE COLD DOME OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...AND THE MAIN CUTOFF
LOW NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE LIKELY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...MAYBE UP TO 1/4
INCH OF ICING. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AND WHETHER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
TO WARRANT NO MORE THAN A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE UPSHOT FOR PLANNING PURPOSES IS ALL OUTDOOR EVENTS WILL BE
COLD AND DAMP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY ICING IS LIKELY ON
BRIDGES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING OF ALL ROADS...PLANTS...AND SURFACES IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN METRO SAN ANTONIO. SIMILARLY...NO
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN METRO AUSTIN TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADS

[somethingfunny]

Yes, this is what I get to drive through in a few minutes.. Yea me..

Be safe and remember the other people on the road are complete idiots so avoid them as much as you can!

The FWD website has been kind of sluggish today, so I'll post the entire afternoon AFD here for y'all to see in case it stops loading again.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT SCATTERED AREAS
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CONTINUE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE IMPACTS LIMITED TO SLICK SPOTS
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SOME MINOR ICING ON TREES AND METAL
OBJECTS. THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING SHERMAN...DALLAS AND FORT WORTH...THAT COULD
RECEIVE A PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND WITH PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THESE AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THE
EAST AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE TWO
MAJOR FACTORS FOR THE WINTER EVENT WILL BE A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD AIR SPREADING SOUTH FROM CANADA AND A STRONG UPPER LOW THAT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS AZ/NM.

THE REINFORCING COLD SURGE WILL SPREAD COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WELL-DEFINED WIND
SHIFT MAY NOT BE EVIDENT WITH THIS SURGE...BUT THE 1050MB SURFACE
HIGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ASSURE
THAT THE REINFORCING SURGE WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER LATE SATURDAY.
EVEN THOUGH SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE LOW LEVELS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THAT DRYING WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
BAJA LOW APPROACHES.

MOST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES CONCERN BOTH THE TIMING OF ONSET OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AND THE THERMAL PROFILES DURING THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT. WE EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WATCH AREA
WILL FALL AS A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS NORTHWEST OF DFW AROUND GRAHAM AND BOWIE.
THE GREATEST IMPACTS...INCLUDING WIDESPREAD SLICK ROADWAYS...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. HOWEVER...SOME
IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA...INCLUDING WACO...CORSICANA...AND ATHENS. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT...ESP ON SATURDAY...OUR FORECASTS MAY FEATURE
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA
AND PERHAPS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A CORRIDOR JUST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE WATCH AREA.

THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND THEREFORE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. THAT SEEMINGLY OMNIPRESENT
UNCERTAINTY IS A FREQUENT CHALLENGE IN FORECASTING WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN NORTH TEXAS. THE REASON FOR THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE
ATMOSPHERIC MECHANISMS THAT PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AND THE
PRECIPITATION ITSELF WILL OFTEN ALSO MODIFY THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES. FOR EXAMPLE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WELL TO THE EAST
OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OFTEN CREATES STRONG LIFTING...BUT THAT
WARM ADVECTION CAN ALSO MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

MONDAY MORNING COMMUTERS MAY ENCOUNTER SLICK ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON...WITH FEWER
IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS ON
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING IN SOME
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. IF THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY MORNING IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCOMPANY THE WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION THAT
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

UPPER RIDGING BEHIND THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ENSURE
CLEARING SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

09/GP

[orangeblood]

This has the potential to be a much more serious situation than I think most people realize. Particularly regarding power outages because of the almost unprecedented occurrence for this time of year around here. An ice storm will be magnified this time of year because most of the fall foliage that is still on the trees contributing to added weight of tree limbs. SREF ensemble members are showing total precip accumulations anywhere from 0.60 to 3.75 inches of liquid to fall into sub-freezing surface temps. If the median range of almost 2 inches of liquid was met, that would probably rank as one of the costliest ice storms the metroplex has ever seen. I'm not trying to overhype this event but I think everyone needs to be prepared for the worst in this instance, particularly for extended power outages.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

The Austin nws is finally saying for Sunday night there MAY be some light freezing rain or sleet for metro Austin.

Quite frankly, they've (EWX) been a bit behind the curve on this event since it started. And that's usually the case in winter weather events. Based on what I see on the SREF and Euro, I think Sunday night is going to be *worse* in the Austin metro area than what they're indicating right now. It won't surprise me in the least if EWX trends in that direction this weekend with their forecasts.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-230600-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...
MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...
JENA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...
CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...
HEMPHILL
417 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE FOUR
STATE REGION MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION AND COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COLD AIR THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30 WHILE
LIQUID RAIN IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY EVENING...A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED NORTH A LINE FROM MINEOLA TEXAS
TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS A LINE FROM TYLER
TEXAS...TO SHREVEPORT AND FARMERVILLE LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL
LIQUID RAIN.

SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN
INCH. THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF
INCH...ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EAST TEXAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MINEOLA TO LONGVIEW.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AMOUNT...AND DURATION. WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED IF TEMPERATURES FAIL TO WARM AS
QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.

THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EVOLVING. AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE.
RESIDENTS...TRAVELLERS...AND ANYONE WITH INTERESTS IN THE FOUR
STATE REGION SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

[ndale]

We may not be getting ice (yet) but certainly had rain. With the storm last night and rain today we have another 3 inches in our gauge.

[Jarodm12]

waco just dropped to 34 dewpoint 32 strong north wind and rain moving in just to the south, anybody think it might changeover here tonight?

[Rgv20]

Flash Flood Warning for the Harlingen area..

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
559 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

TXC061-489-230100-
/O.CON.KBRO.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-131123T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMERON TX-WILLACY TX-
559 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WILLACY
AND WESTERN CAMERON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CST...

AT 540 PM CST...THE CAMERON COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTED 5 TO
6 INCHES OF WATER IN PRIMERA THAT WAS ALMOST IN RESIDENTIAL HOMES.
AND AT 545 PM CST...THE CAMERON COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT ALSO
REPORTED WATER OVER A LOWER BRIDGE ON BREEDLOVE STREET IN NORTH
HARLINGEN.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...HARLINGEN...VALLEY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...SAN BENITO...PRIMERA...RIO HONDO...RANGERVILLE...LASANA...
PORFIRIO...SANTA MONICA...AND LOS COYOTES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
BROWNSVILLE.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&

LAT...LON 2596 9759 2596 9761 2601 9765 2602 9770
2602 9776 2603 9779 2605 9780 2604 9781
2605 9785 2627 9780 2643 9770 2650 9745
2593 9755 2593 9757

$$

TOMASELLI