For a couple of days, at least?
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bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYLAfRRVAAAe9eW?format=jpg&name=small
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0206
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
611 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020
Areas affected...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Northwest
LA...South central AR
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 162210Z - 170300Z
SUMMARY...Widespread heavy rain with numerous thunderstorms will
continue into the evening hours across the ArkLaTex region in
association with a slow moving low. Flash flooding will be
possible with rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour or even
greater, especially with training convection.
DISCUSSION...A well developed and vertically stacked low-mid level
low along with a remnant MCV is present in both radar and
satellite imagery this afternoon. A deep surge of moisture from
the western Gulf of Mexico is being lifted over an effective
surface front across northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana.
With PWs in the 1.7 to 2.0 inch range based on the latest SPC
mesoanalysis, and low LCLs, these storms should be efficient heavy
rainfall producers with a deep warm cloud layer.
The latest suite of high-res guidance is supporting the potential
of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, and locally higher, through 2Z (9 pm
CDT) where these storms persist the longest. Areas with the best
high-res model signal for concentrated heavy rainfall is depicted
on the graphic, and thus considered more prone to flooding. Those
areas that were hammered with heavy rain earlier in the day should
avoid most of the heavier storms this evening, but it will not
take as much additional rain to cause additional flooding issues
there.
Hamrick
ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
bubba hotep wrote:Officially 3.57" at DFW putting us +2.13 for the Month, +4.22 for Spring, and +8.31 for the Year. There are some dry concerns with the potential shift to +ENSO but I lean towards the overall background warmth in the Pacific is currently overwhelming the ENSO signal. Here is the latest blend of Euro and UKMet seasonal models for the Summer showing above normal rainfall continuing for Texas.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYDRKB2UYAA-cIJ?format=jpg&name=small
Cpv17 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Officially 3.57" at DFW putting us +2.13 for the Month, +4.22 for Spring, and +8.31 for the Year. There are some dry concerns with the potential shift to +ENSO but I lean towards the overall background warmth in the Pacific is currently overwhelming the ENSO signal. Here is the latest blend of Euro and UKMet seasonal models for the Summer showing above normal rainfall continuing for Texas.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYDRKB2UYAA-cIJ?format=jpg&name=small
Why does it always rain so much in the Carolinas during the summer?
Haris wrote:New euro remains amazing. Stalling low bringing rain Thurs - next Wed. Maybe even beyond.
GEFS on board too. 2-4" + !
Haris wrote:New euro remains amazing. Stalling low bringing rain Thurs - next Wed. Maybe even beyond.
GEFS on board too. 2-4" + !
bubba hotep wrote:Haris wrote:New euro remains amazing. Stalling low bringing rain Thurs - next Wed. Maybe even beyond.
GEFS on board too. 2-4" + !
Widespread rains for Texas!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/total_precip_inch/1589803200/1590667200-dkESgJv4nQE.png
bubba hotep wrote:EPS looks good as well, esp. for deep S. TX
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/total_precip_inch/1589803200/1591099200-qEny6PJWXKM.png
bubba hotep wrote:EPS looks good as well, esp. for deep S. TX
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/total_precip_inch/1589803200/1591099200-qEny6PJWXKM.png
rwfromkansas wrote:No Nina please. Lol.
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