Texas Fall 2025

[snownado]

Looking like I might end up in the bullsyee this round. Rainfall totals already pushing 2" per radar estimates, with plenty more t'storms upstream...

Bullseye indeed...

https://x.com/wfaaweather/status/199169 ... CUCJw&s=19

[snownado]

Over 3.20"+ of rainfall so far at DFW with another big batch coming in. Some areas higher locally. Looks like the 4-6" highlighted by the WPC is going to pan out for some.

3.92" will do it, making it the wettest day on record for DFW in November.

[snownado]

Over 3.20"+ of rainfall so far at DFW with another big batch coming in. Some areas higher locally. Looks like the 4-6" highlighted by the WPC is going to pan out for some.

3.92" will do it, making it the wettest day on record for DFW in November.

UPDATE: 3.95" is the official final total per FWD...

[cstrunk]

Looking like I might end up in the bullsyee this round. Rainfall totals already pushing 2" per radar estimates, with plenty more t'storms upstream...

Bullseye indeed...

https://x.com/wfaaweather/status/199169 ... CUCJw&s=19

I was skeptical about my chances, but a few prefrontal "supercell-like" cells blew up and gave me an extra inch before the dying line topped me off. Ended up with 1.24". Got lucky.

[Ntxw]

Over 3.20"+ of rainfall so far at DFW with another big batch coming in. Some areas higher locally. Looks like the 4-6" highlighted by the WPC is going to pan out for some.

3.92" will do it, making it the wettest day on record for DFW in November.

UPDATE: 3.95" is the official final total per FWD...

Could be another 1-3" (closer to 2") for most with the next round. Even though it's been fast and famine, we'll finish the year with a pretty respectable total.

[Brent]

OKC TV met was openly talking about Arctic air and winter weather to start December earlier

Same one who downplayed the entire winter a couple weeks ago

[wxman22]

It finally looks like the seasonal weather is here to stay. At least up here the models show high temperatures in the 60s and low 70s with Lows in the 40s and 30s for the foreseeable future. Next freeze in the forecast looks to be next Wednesday night. With the possibility of much colder Arctic air coming down around December 1st. Which may include an overrunning event once the cold air is in place.

[rwfromkansas]

The Euro AI is still dumping the Arctic air all the way to the coast to begin December btw and has a winter storm setup for the northern areas. It's been very consistent with this idea apparently

I guess we're about to find out if the model is any good or not

We now have so many models to look at and which one is right, noone really knows. Regular euro used to be so much better than it is now imo

I kind of miss the days when I first started on different weather forums in the early 2000s when there were just a few models to look at. It's almost overwhelming now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Been watching the EURO AI model fora year now and it's consistency is much much better than the other models. It may not nail something 12 days out, but the consistency from run to run starts much further out than the other models.

I've been watching this potential cold blast coming right after Turkey day. It's been all over it this week. Showing below zero temps in almost every run. More importantly for us, we need the snow. Extremely dry at the moment.

For Texas, its a decent pattern. I think a little bit of -PNA is good for Texas snowstorms. You guys want the jet to aim directly for the Big Bend region.

[Brent]

Dual posts here about either an impactful storm over the country or an ice storm locally

Other people urging caution because it's still over a week away but this sounds like how some other arctic outbreaks started here whether they are just cold and dry or have precip

[wxman22]

Its early, but im thinking an ice storm looks more likely than a snowstorm at this point.Based on the pattern,but it's still a long ways out so a lot can change of course.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

18z euro aifs was further east. Probably a bunk run would be my guess.

[HockeyTx82]

18z euro aifs was further east. Probably a bunk run would be my guess.

And here we go........

[starsfan65]

18z euro aifs was further east. Probably a bunk run would be my guess.

And here we go........

It will still get cold here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The fact there is still open water just NW of Alaska blows my mind. Has a large effect on the size of the HP coming down.

[Brent]

18z euro aifs was further east. Probably a bunk run would be my guess.

I mean I personally think it's either gonna be a dry cold or an ice storm up here but like it's not even winter yet.. Maybe it's my climo but after what happened last year I'm not worried up here.... I was sitting here in December thinking it would never snow too and then look what happened in January

[Brent]

18z euro aifs was further east. Probably a bunk run would be my guess.

I mean I personally think it's either gonna be a dry cold or an ice storm up here if it happens but like it's not even winter yet(the lack of snow pack upstream needs to be fixed if we're really gonna get a good one).. and maybe it's my climo but after what happened last year I'm not worried up here.... I was sitting here in December thinking it would never snow too and then look what happened in January and even February even if it was ridiculously overhyped for what it was

Yeah down in Texas and Louisiana is more complicated but I don't think we have to worry up here. There hasn't even been anything before Christmas week in so long. I almost look at it now like if something happens in December it's a bonus

[Golfisnoteasy75]

18z euro aifs was further east. Probably a bunk run would be my guess.

I mean I personally think it's either gonna be a dry cold or an ice storm up here if it happens but like it's not even winter yet(the lack of snow pack upstream needs to be fixed if we're really gonna get a good one).. and maybe it's my climo but after what happened last year I'm not worried up here.... I was sitting here in December thinking it would never snow too and then look what happened in January and even February even if it was ridiculously overhyped for what it was

Yeah down in Texas and Louisiana is more complicated but I don't think we have to worry up here. There hasn't even been anything before Christmas week in so long. I almost look at it now like if something happens in December it's a bonus

I agree. You definitely have a better chance than most for sure. Im hoping we get one winter event this winter. More would be nice also

[wxman22]

The panhandle gets more snow on average than most of Oklahoma. Not all of Texas is south of Oklahoma just saying LOL.

[Brent]

The panhandle gets more snow on average than most of Oklahoma. Not all of Texas is south of Oklahoma just saying LOL.

True and yet nobody lives out there really lol