MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0928 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/W CENTRAL AND SWRN GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301528Z - 301730Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS NOW ONGOING OVER SERN MS AND INTO W CENTRAL AL SHOULD
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZES.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY AROUND MIDDAY.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RICHER GULF MOISTURE STILL S OF THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST REGION...WHILE MORNING RAOBS SHOW FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
   INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.  ABOVE THE CAPPED LAYER HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS
   REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALOFT ANTICIPATED AS
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   INTO THE SERN CONUS.
   
   COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
   BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD/VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
   THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF WLY
   WINDS -- AND THUS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES...INCREASING FLOW
   AT MID LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS/MID-LEVEL ROTATION. 
   
   EXPECT STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN MS AND INTO W CENTRAL AND SWRN
   AL TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZES AND SHEAR INCREASES.  LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
   GENERAL LACK OF VEERING IN THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT MAIN
   THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL ACROSS THIS AREA.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...WITH WW ISSUANCE LIKELY REQUIRED BY MIDDAY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31098824 31988731 32548601 32948458 31818377 31078404
   29808528 30298610 30208802 30208838

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SRN HALF OF GA/SRN SC/NRN FL AND THE FL
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23...
   
   VALID 302049Z - 302245Z
   
   STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW 23. NEW
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED FURTHER S AND E AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD/SEWD OUT OF
   CURRENT WW.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS -- THOUGH SLOW TO ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY DUE TO WEAK
   CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY -- CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SERN
   AL AND CENTRAL/SWRN GA ATTM.  SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THAT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL JET
   MAX MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SRN ATLANTIC.
   SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER E AND SE OF CURRENT WW MAY OFFSET
   THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND THUS YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A
   CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST.  GIVEN
   THIS...A NEW WATCH EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NRN FL NWD TO
   PARTS OF SRN SC MAY BE REQUIRED BY 22Z.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   30248825 31278700 33338247 32907973 31998087 30708141
   30028130 29358313 30038401 29578503 29968603 29858756

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0528 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SRN GA...SRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302328Z - 310100Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...SHIFTING EASTWARD
   THROUGH SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  THREAT MAY BE FAIRLY
   LOCALIZED...PROBABLY CONFINED TO NARROW SWATH FROM THE VICINITY OF
   ALBANY GA THROUGH THE SAVANNAH GA AND CHARLESTON SC AREAS...BUT A
   NEW WW MAY STILL BE NEEDED BY EXPIRATION OF CURRENT WW.
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY
   INDICATE 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO BE SPREADING THROUGH
   SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...WHERE INTENSIFICATION
   OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ONGOING.  THIS AREA OF
   ENHANCED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
   SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY 03Z...INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AS
   MID-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS EASTWARD THIS EVENING.
   
   THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN...
   NARROW TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /REFLECTED BY 60F+ SURFACE DEW
   POINTS/...COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND STRENGTHENING LIFT
   SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR.  CAPE UP TO
   500 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND SEEMS LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN
   ISOLATED PERSISTENT SUPERCELL...OR PERHAPS A SHORT SQUALL LINE WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   31708477 32098392 32468254 32798135 33028036 32827963
   31927965 31178101 30878233 30868387 30898459 31178501

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 011828Z - 012030Z



SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SERN TX...LIKELY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TX COASTAL REGION ATTM...BENEATH STRONG CAP EVIDENT IN MORNING
RAOBS. HOWEVER...UVV -- AIDED BY STRONG UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EWD
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ATTM -- IS ALLOWING CAP TO SLOWLY
LIFT/WEAKEN...AS CONFIRMED BY 17Z CRP RAOB.

THOUGH CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM REMAINS WEAK/ELEVATED ABOVE STRONG
CAP...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF
CAP TO EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

COMBINATION OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND 40 TO 50 KT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORECAST TO EVOLVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS. THOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
HAIL GIVEN COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION...DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS.

..GOSS.. 02/01/2006

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 012045Z - 012215Z
   
   NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF E TX NW OF WW 0024...AS
   CONVECTION INCREASES.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INTENSIFY INVOF TPL/AUS/CLL WITHIN
   LARGER AREA OF WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION...JUST AHEAD OF UPPER VORT
   MAX.  WITH 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION
   AND 45 KT SHEAR PER LATEST LDB /LEDBETTER TX/ PROFILER...STORMS WILL
   LIKELY ACQUIRE MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH TIME.  GIVEN RELATIVELY COLD
   AIR ALOFT...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 02/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   30699804 32199479 31189389 29539726 30059800

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...
   
   VALID 020048Z - 020215Z
   
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
   EVENING AS CELLS MOVE ONSHORE AND OTHER CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE
   ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA. ALTHOUGH STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...A NEW WW
   MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 24 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LOW
   OVER SCNTRL TX WITH A STRONG DRY SLOT PUNCHING EWD INTO SE TX ATTM.
   A LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED IN THE HOUSTON AREA AND THIS FEATURE WILL
   SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SRN LA THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AS CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT. SFC
   ANALYSIS ACROSS SRN LA CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 55
   TO 60 F...SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ACROSS SE TX. THIS SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO
   THREAT THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY
   LATER TONIGHT AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...
   
   29379144 29269290 29069400 29009464 29259507 29849520
   30269513 30579450 30869338 30909197 30659117 30229105
   29699108

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...
   
   VALID 020544Z - 020715Z
   
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SQUALL-LINE MOVES
   EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF WW 25 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW IN SCNTRL TX WITH A
   DRY SLOT ADVANCING QUICKLY EWD ENTERING SW LA ATTM. A LINE OF STRONG
   STORMS IS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE 55 TO 60 F DEGREE RANGE. ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK AHEAD OF THE LINE...A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL
   JET OVER SWRN LA IS CREATING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
   WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. DUE TO
   THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE MAY
   HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
   29069079 29259212 29539267 30349272 30709203 30559078
   30339010 29808986 29239016

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / FAR SRN MS / FAR SWRN AL / WRN FL PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020752Z - 020915Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NE OF WW 25
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
   THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ROUNDING THE
   TROUGH BASE OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SERN LA. IN THE
   LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SE OF POE WITH AN
   ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SRN LA.  STRONGEST
   PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER SERN LA INTO SRN
   MS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COUPLING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DEEPER
   ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. 
   
   GIVEN THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS OVER S-CNTRL
   LA...IT APPEARS THAT THIS STRONGER FORCING HAS BEGUN TO ACT ON
   SLIGHTLY MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE NRN GULF.
   WHILE 06Z SLIDELL SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY WEAK ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY...INTENSIFICATION OF SLY LLJ TO 50-60 KTS THROUGH 02/12Z
   WILL SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IN VICINITY OF WARM
   FRONT SLOWLY RETREATING NWD.  THUS...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS/SWRN
   AL AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
   
   29979027 30499030 30738958 30908782 30738724 30248706
   29818732 29469001

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020905Z - 021030Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUST WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THOUGH A
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
   
   A SEPARATE..CYCLONICALLY CURVED CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO
   INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS OF 0850Z IN STRONGLY
   DIVERGENT REGION AHEAD OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SABINE
   RIVER VALLEY.  RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
   60S COUPLED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -16 C AT 500
   MB ARE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   RESULTANT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY / MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG /.
   THIS AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE WINNFIELD LA
   PROFILER WITH WINDS VEERING THEN BACKING WITH HEIGHT.
   
   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
   MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LA OVER THE NEXT 2-3
   HRS...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS AND LIFTS NEWD.  THESE
   STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THE STEEP LAPSE
   RATES MOVE OVER A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONVECTIVELY-PROCESSED /I.E.
   STABLE/ SURFACE AIR MASS.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
   
   FARTHER S...MORE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OVER CNTRL
   INTO SWRN LA ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING SEWD.  THE PRIMARY
   LIMITING FACTOR HERE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   WITH TIME...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
   
   31869374 32309363 32899287 33089201 32939104 32319101
   31549164 31179230 31079316 31319366

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0409 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LA / SRN MS / SWRN AL / WRN FL PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 26...
   
   VALID 021009Z - 021145Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA EARLY THIS
   MORNING.
   
   AS OF 0950Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPLEX BOW ECHO
   STRUCTURE EVOLVING OVER FAR SERN LA INTO SRN MS WITH A SYSTEM
   MOVEMENT OF 245/40-45 KTS.  THE CYCLONIC LINE END VORTEX CURRENTLY
   OVER PEARL RIVER COUNTY MS HAS SHOWN A PERSISTENT
   CIRCULATION...THOUGH RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED
   SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS PORTION OF MCS IS LIKELY
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.  EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS FEATURE N OF WW 26 INTO
   LAMAR...FORREST AND PERHAPS PERRY COUNTIES BY 1030Z.  WHILE SOME
   THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL EXIST N OF WW
   AREA...THIS PORTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
   MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT.
   
   THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BOTH MESOCYCLONE AND NON-DESCENDING TYPE
   TORNADOES WILL EXIST ALONG CREST OF THE BOW ECHO SWWD ALONG THE WAVY
   TRAILING FLANK WHERE RADAR DATA SHOW A MORE DISCRETE HP SUPERCELL 35
   WSW OF BVE.  MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE APEX OF THIS BOW IS N OF
   RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH SRN PORTION OF MCS ROOTED IN
   THE BOUNDARY-LAYER.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE STRONGLY SHEARED
   LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INVOF OF THIS WARM FRONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
   400-500 M2/S2.
   
   IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF BOWING PORTION OF MCS
   WHERE RADAR DATA SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID-ALTITUDE RADIAL CONVERGENCE
   SIGNATURE /MARC/.  EXPECT THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DEVELOP EWD
   INTO THE MOBILE AREA BY 1100-1130Z.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   30989067 31058649 29368646 29379067

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0613 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PNHDL / SERN AL AND SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021213Z - 021345Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   AFTER 13Z AS MCS APPROACHES DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE W.  CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AS OF 1155Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH
   EMBEDDED BOWS...LEWPS AND HP SUPERCELLS FROM 35 E MOB TO 35 SE BVE
   WITH A SYSTEM MOTION OF 250/40-45 KTS. NRN PORTION OF THIS MCS
   /OVER BALDWIN COUNTY AL/ REMAINS N OF PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT
   WHICH EXTENDED FROM INTERSECTION WITH MCS S OF MOB TO ROUGHLY 65 SSW
   OF AAF.
   
   GIVEN THE RAPID ENEWD MOTION OF THE MCS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
   MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE NEAR-SURFACE
   INVERSION AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FL
   PNHDL/SERN AL AND SWRN GA AFTER 13Z.  THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST...COUPLED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
   
   AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD
   INCREASE SHOULD STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED...THOUGH CURRENT SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   30918633 31338608 31458528 31258434 31028390 30318379
   29928405 29538505 29578586 30068642

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS COASTAL FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021641Z - 021845Z
   
   TSTMS MOVING FROM GULF WATERS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS GULF/FRANKLIN
   COUNTIES MAY BECOME SFC-BASED. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   DOWNDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOW ECHO MODE...AND
   TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS.
   THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME FOR WW.
   
   ISOLATED HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE...BOTH OVER THOSE AREAS AND INLAND
   20-30 NM TOWARD I-10 CORRIDOR...FROM BOTH MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND
   MORE DISCRETE BUT ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MCS.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM S
   AAF AS OF 16Z...AND THIS FRONT MAY MOVE ASHORE BRIEFLY E OF CAPE SAN
   BLAS AND BEFORE PASSAGE OF TSTM LINE.  12Z TLH RAOB WAS
   REPRESENTATIVE OF MORE DRY/STABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL AIR MASS THAN
   ENVIRONMENT NOW EVIDENT S OF AAF.  MUCAPES ARE ESTIMATED 1500-2000
   J/KG S OF MARINE FRONT.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED
   PARCELS WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 70 F AS OBSERVED ALONG/S OF FRONT.
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH BACKED
   FLOW AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 KM
   SRH 200-500 J/KG.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...
   
   29978550 30218536 30518468 30518402 30068394 29878432
   29538500 29688541

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022108Z - 022300Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR TIME TYPO
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER GULF AND
   MOVING INLAND FROM AAF AREA AROUND APALACHEE BAY.  SHEAR PROFILES
   ARE FCST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN NEAR TERM FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO MODES WITH MESOCYCLONES...PER MODIFIED VWP
   AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND
   AND ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUT/TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS NEAR COAST.
   DAMAGING WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED AT 1930Z BETWEEN MAINLAND AND ST
   GEORGE ISLAND.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT BETWEEN BUOY SGOF1 AND
   AAF...BASICALLY ONSHORE SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY...THEN ARCHING SEWD-NEWD
   TOWARD GNV.  AIR MASS ACROSS PENINSULA IS WELL MIXED AND RELATIVELY
   DRY...BUT FAVORABLY MOIST OVER GULF WITH DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F.
    ANY VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH BOTH
   RUC PROGS AND SFC ISALLOBARIC TRENDS SHOWING PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTING
   EWD INTO CAROLINAS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MOIST ADVECTION INLAND FROM
   CEDAR KEY/CTY AREA NWD TO I-10 AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND.
   
   LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AS
   IT MOVES EWD ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR TOWARD LAKE CITY AREA.
   INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS HAS RELATIVELY WEAK SFC DEW POINTS -- 61-64
   DEG F. GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLGTLY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC
   THIS LIMITS MUCAPE IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS TO UNDER 500 J/KG.
   HOWEVER...SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL REMAIN STRONG
   ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS
   TO MAINTAIN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING INTENSITY BETWEEN CLOUD BASE AND
   SFC.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
   
   29688536 30098515 30428451 30548227 29678265 29528333
   29908410 29528507

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL / EXTREME SERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 022254Z - 030100Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING AS WELL.
   IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
   A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.
   
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH
   THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER THIS
   EVENING. THUS...WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
   EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES MOVING ALONG SURFACE
   BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR PARALLEL.
   
   ISOLATED AND BRIEF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 03Z WHEN
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. THREAT WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY
   DEPENDENT UPON ADVECTION OF TRUE TROPICAL AIR MASS INLAND FROM THE
   SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRUE SURFACE BASED STORMS.
   
   FURTHER...GPS WATER VAPOR SENSORS ALSO INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES INCREASING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH VALUES OF OVER 1.50
   INCHES NOW INTO NRN FL. OFFSHORE BUOYS ALSO INDICATE WEDGE OF
   TROPICAL AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ADVECTING NEWD. WITH
   LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL
   FLOW...FORECAST STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY
   SLOW WITH TIME. THUS...LONG DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   29728529 30658368 31588138 31378096 29648112 29058275
   28688431 28758531 29318604

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND FAR SE GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27...
   
   VALID 030100Z - 030230Z
   
   A TRAINING LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EWD ACROSS
   NRN FL. A SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE LINE OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PART OF WW 27.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NRN FL. A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN
   IS EVIDENT ON RADAR EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM
   SRN GA SWWD INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
   RELATIVELY WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S F.
   IN ADDITION...88D VWP IN NRN FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55-60 KT WITH
   0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE A BRIEF
   TORNADO THREAT WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER THIS EVENING AS THE
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING
   INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE OF THE SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   31118207 31048166 30608132 30078142 29708222 29288355
   29328401 29568436 29968414 30658318

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL BIG BEND REGION
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030653Z - 030830Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND
   COUNTIES OF DIXIE...LEVY...CITRUS BY 0730Z...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
   FARTHER INLAND FROM UNION TO SUMTER COUNTIES.  WELL DEFINED BOW
   ECHO...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NERN GULF /65 SW CTY/...WAS MOVING
   TO THE ENE AROUND 45 KT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED
   GENERALLY EWD FROM THE BOW ACROSS THE NRN FL.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
   PENINSULA...WITH THE BOW ECHO CURRENTLY EXITING A REGION OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN GULF. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDING
   FOR NRN FL MODIFIED WITH THIS SURFACE MOISTURE VALUE RESULTS IN A
   WEAKLY CAPPED AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  SINCE THE BOW IS
   CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF FL THAT HAS NOT BEEN
   CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...AND SLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING THE GREATER
   MOISTURE NWD TOWARD THE BOUNDARY...THERE MAY BE GREATER POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   29658339 29838311 30128236 30078203 29208184 28948181
   28678224 28608268 28968274 29378330 29508344

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0701 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031301Z - 031330Z
   
   WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FL...ESPECIALLY FOR
   WEST CENTRAL FL.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE 1245Z POSITION ANALYZED FROM
   NRN BREVARD COUNTY SWWD TO NRN POLK COUNTY AND THEN WWD TO NRN
   PINELLAS COUNTY.  SURFACE PRESSURE FALL ANALYSIS INDICATED A
   WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE RISES EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF INTO WEST
   CENTRAL FL AT 12Z.  THIS SUGGESTS THE WRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE A SLOWER SWD PROGRESSION AS IS CURRENTLY
   OBSERVED IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA.  ALSO THIS WOULD ALSO INDICATE AN
   INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE
   SURFACE BASED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING.
   
   12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATED A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY
   MINOR SURFACE HEATING REQUIRED TO WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO
   ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN THE
   CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL FL SUGGESTING THE CAP SHOULD EASILY WEAKEN
   BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S.
   STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES ALONG WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...
   
   28388270 28388223 28628138 28938086 28468072 28008059
   27578080 27388186 27198255 27618285 28088289

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1019 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX...NRN AND W-CENTRAL LA...EXTREME SERN
   AR...W-CENTRAL MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031619Z - 031845Z
   
   HAIL POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ATTM IN CORRIDOR FROM E-CENTRAL TX TO
   W-CENTRAL MS...AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE
   ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM FOR
   THIS REGIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SW SHV INVOF TX/LA BORDER AND CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THIS SWATH...THROUGH
   AT LEAST 20Z.  LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN FURTHER OVER THIS REGION
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   1. MIDLEVEL COOLING OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN 12Z RAOBS THAT IS FCST TO
   SHIFT SEWD AHEAD OF MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
   2. WAA IN LOW LEVELS...ALONG AND ATOP STABLE LAYER NOTED IN OBSERVED
   AND RUC SOUNDINGS.
   
   COMBINING THOSE FACTORS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING YIELDS ELEVATED
   MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG.  LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING AND PRECLUDE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
   HOURS...HOWEVER VERY LONG HODOGRAPHS THROUGH LOW-MIDLEVELS OF
   BUOYANT LAYER ARE EVIDENT BASED ON VWP/PROFILER WINDS...MODIFIED
   SHV/FWD RAOBS AND RUC PROGS.  55-70 KT EFFECTIVE/ELEVATED VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS ROOTED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   31469517 32449382 33289167 33459064 32799028 31169246
   30809424 31099510

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 28...
   
   VALID 031640Z - 031845Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR WW TYPE
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR VRB WWD ACROSS
   NRN PORTIONS OKEECHOBEE/HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES THEN OVER SRN
   PORTIONS TAMPA BAY...MOVING S 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THAT AREA.
   MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF
   GULF AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TBW REGION.  TORNADO POTENTIAL
   HAS DIMINISHED WITH THAT ACTIVITY GIVEN EFFECTIVELY ANAFRONTAL
   NATURE OF BOUNDARY...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST TSTMS WILL UNDERCUT
   THEMSELVES WITH STABLE NEAR-SFC AIR BY MOVING OVER OUTFLOW POOL.
   PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER WW PERIOD MAY BE WITH
   MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT LEAST 30-40 NM S OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY IN AREA OF STRONGEST DIABATIC SFC HEATING...SUCH DISTANCE
   GIVING TSTMS TIME TO MATURE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY.  50-60
   KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG MLCAPES SHOULD
   PERSIST OVER AREAS JUST S OF BOUNDARY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   27178013 26678110 26418212 27328281 27768269 28328067

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ME
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 031820Z - 032215Z
   
   AFTER INITIAL SNOW...A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF PREDOMINANT FREEZING
   RAIN IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. HOURLY LIQUID
   EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05-0.10 INCH OR GREATER APPEARS LIKELY...WITH SOME
   ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   ATTENDANT 997 MB SURFACE LOW INVOF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH BROAD
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD /TIED TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/ SPREADING
   ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH INITIAL PRECIP TYPE
   ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW...ENCROACHING MID
   LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN AMIDST
   STRONG WAA PROFILES AS SEEN IN 12Z RAOBS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS.
   LATEST RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
   GENERAL TRANSITION TO PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 20Z-22Z
   ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY N/NW OF A MILLINOCKET TO PRESQUE
   ISLE AXIS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
   
   46576790 46036835 45806892 45816954 46046997 46267013
   46537008 47036969 47376920 47396833 47136779 46936766