Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

It was a very cool overnight in Puerto Rico as the lowest temperature was 54F in Adjuntas on the center of the island in the Cordillera Central. So far during the winter period,it has been with a few below normal days.

I'm jelous! In San Salvador we have not had a temperature below 60°F since January 9. It's interesting how January has been warmer than normal just after one of the coldest December on record.

[Macrocane]

-Today Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador experienced above normal minimum temperatures, Costa Rica was colder than average and the rest of the region had near normal lows.
-Most of the region had near normal maximum temps except for San Salvador and Panama city that were a little above average.

By the way there's a cold front near the Yucatan peninsula that may produce cooler temperatures beggining tomorrow and lasting through the weekend, though the cooler maximum temps registered today in Guatemala, Belize and Honduras are an indirect effect of the front as it has increased the cloud cover in those countries.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mounatin Pine Ridge, Belize 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.3°C (36.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.1°C (50.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 13.6°C (56.5°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.0°C (39.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 11.3°C (52.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.4°C (97.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Managua 24.1°C (75.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.The fires continue to occur as the dry weather continues.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST THU JAN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FRONTS FROM REACHING THE AREA. AT LOWER
LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...
THE FAIR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CONCENTRATE OVER
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. BUT
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE PATTERN...
WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT JSJ/IST/ISX THRU 12Z IN -SHRA. CIGS
IMPROVE AFTER 12Z WITH VCSH AT JBQ THIS AFTERNOON AND MVFR CIGS
THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR ELSEWHERE WITH NO SIG WX NEXT FIVE DAYS.
MAINLY EAST WINDS WITH A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT DUE TO WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT THAN PAST TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. HOWEVER...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING SWELLS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS TIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE FIRE DAY YESTERDAY WITH SVRL LARGE FIRES
CONFIRMED BY BOMBEROS IN SANTA ISABEL/COAMO/GUAYAMA AND HOTSPOTS
DETECTED BY NASA TERRA AND GOES SATELLITES IN YAUCO/SANTA
ISABEL/COAMO/SALINAS. CONDITIONS TODAY NOT AS DANGEROUS AS
YESTERDAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 8AM LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ATTAIN A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT
TODAY DUE TO WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE EFFECT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS...FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO
BURNING BUT ANY FIRES TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT BURN AS INTENSE AS
THEY DID YESTERDAY DUE TO HIGHER RH VALUES. AFTERNOON MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 4500 FEET AND TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 17 MPH WHICH SHOULD YIELD GOOD VENTILATION
RATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 72 / 0 10 10 10
STT 84 73 85 73 / 0 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST THU JAN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GPS-MET OBS SYSTEM INDICATED A DECREASING TREND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND ONE INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY BEFORE SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN/NORTH SOUTH AMERICA
TEND TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODERATE TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL CAP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...LIMITING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING WATERS AND THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE A SURGE OF MOISTURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS
FORESEEN IN NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. HOWEVER...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING SWELLS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS TIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 84 / 20 20 10 10
STT 73 85 73 85 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

The whole region experienced today temperatures near or above normal, the front that is over the Gulf of Honduras didn't have any significant effects on the minimum temps and actually in Honduras they were warmer today than yesterday although the ridge that pushed the front is going to strengthen tonight and tomorrow so there's still hope that temperatures are going to get cooler.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mounatin Pine Ridge, Belize 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.4°C (45.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.3°C (48.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.8°C (58.6°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.7°C (40.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.0°C (60.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 30°C (86°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Managua 22.8°C (75.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)

[Macrocane]

Something very anti-climatology has happened tonight as strong showers developed over San Salvador and other parts of the country, I will post the observations tomorrow but here's a radar image captured some minutes ago:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
933 PM AST THU JAN 27 2011

.UPDATE...AN AREA OF PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS NOW
ENTERING THE VICINITY OF SAINT MARTEN AND SAINT KITTS. IT SHOULD
ARRIVE IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO JUST AFTER 6 AM AST. IN THE LOCAL
AREA CLOUD COVERAGE HAS BEEN FOLLOWING A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN
WHERE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND DIMINISH
DURING THE MORNING OVER THE OCEAN. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR AIR BETWEEN HERE AND THERE. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER THE BASIC PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A TRAILING RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE RESULTING TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL CARRY PATCHES OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 28/12Z. TOP OF THE MOIST
LAYER IS ONLY AROUND 6 THOUSAND FEET. LATEST 28/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
15K FEET...BECOMING MAINLY WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.

[cycloneye]

Macrocane,here is the sat image that shows that small area of convection.

[Macrocane]

Yep it was a small patch, some stations registered between 5 mm (0.2 inches) and 10 mm (0.4 inches) wich is the average and double the average rainfall for January.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST FRI JAN 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC
WILL RETROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL FLATTEN/WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL DIG SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IN TURN WILL
HELP ENHANCE SOME OF THE PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS...AS THEY PROPAGATE
WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS GPS- MET OBS...MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS...AND
EARLIER REGIONAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FOR TJSJ/TFFR...ALL SUGGESTED DECREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ONE INCH OR LESS. THEREFORE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED...OTHER THAN PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS...
THE GENERAL TREND OF DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES AND PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF DIURNALLY OR LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
EACH DAY...AS LACK OF MOISTURE AND THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
HOLD SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST 28/00Z
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 15K FEET...BECOMING MAINLY WESTERLY AND STRONGER
ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. COMBINATION OF
DECREASING SWELL ACTION AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL STILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 84 72 / 20 10 10 30
STT 84 72 84 75 / 20 20 20 30

[Macrocane]

Hi! The low temperatures registered this morning in El Salvador were the warmest of the week thanks to a cloudy night but since midnight northerly winds have been blowing (finally!) associated with the high pressure that pushed the front yesterday so it's very possible that tomorrow minimum temperatures will be cooler, I will post today's minimum and maximum temperatures later this afternoon. Yesterday we had some showers in the central and northern parts of the country, and as I've told you that is unusual and they were the most organized and produced the highest amounts of rainfall since November 17, here's the rainfall registered in some stations:

San Marcos Lempa 25.4 mm/1.00 inch (highest rainfall registered yesterday)
San Salvador 9 mm/0.35 inches (that's almost 200% of the January average for this city)
Perquin 7 mm/0.28 inches
Ilopango 6.5 mm/0.26 inches

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY...AS A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. ALL IN
ALL...THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A FAIRLY DECENT BAND OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THIS VERIFIES AND
DESPITE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WOULD EXPECT
A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME VCSH ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR COULD
RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ. EXPECT LLVL EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO
20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. COMBINED
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW SEVEN FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED
WITH THE UPCOMING FORECAST ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTH
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A STEADILY
INCREASING WILDFIRE FIRE DANGER. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...PROMOTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION AND TO
DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THE PROPER RECEPTACLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 83 71 82 / 20 10 30 30
STT 73 84 74 83 / 20 20 30 40

[Macrocane]

Finally a new cold surge is affecting Central America after almost 2 weeks of warm weather, here's a summary of the effetcs of this cold surge in the region:
-Belize and som locations in Guatemala had cooler minimum and maximum temperatures today.
-El Salvador and Honduras had warmer minimum temperatures because it was cloudy at night but the maximum temperatures have been lower than on previous days, in fact in El Salvador we had the coolest maximum temperatures since January 15.
-In Las Pilas (El Salvador) and La Esperanza (Honduras) the low registered this morning was NOT the minimum temperature of the day as the temperature this evening is already cooler than this morning, that's a rare occurance and tells us that tonight may be much cooler than last night.
-Northerly and Northeasterly winds are blowing from Gulf of Tehuantepec in Mexico to Gulf of Panama because of the high pressure systema associated with the cold surge.

These are the observations, note that I am posting the minimum temperatures registered today so far as I've said above in some places they may get cooler tonight.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Mounatin Pine Ridge, Belize 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.0°C (39.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.5°C (54.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (40.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.3°C (57.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.1°C (57.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.6°C (96.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Esteli, Managua 24.4°C (75.9°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.7°C (58.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2011

.UPDATE...ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER PUERTO RICO AND SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING OVER SURROUNDING WATERS AS WELL. DISCUSSION
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED STILL HOLDS. STILL SEE PULSES OF MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SECOND PULSE ABOUT 48 HOURS
AFTERWARD. BOTH PULSES APPEAR TO BE VISIBLE ABOUT 650 AND 1100
MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOIST LAYER
LESS THAN 7000 FEET DEEP IN 00Z SOUNDING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
NOW BELOW 0.9 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH VCSH ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR COULD RESULT IN
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TJBQ
AND TJMZ BTW 29/18Z-29/21Z. EXPECT LLVL EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN SLOWLY FLATTENS WHILE MAINTAINING
AN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GENERAL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL AND HAS CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST A LARGE CLUSTER OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE TO REACH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
ON SUNDAY. THIS PATCH OF SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH
WAS NOTED EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH INTERVALS
OF PASSING SHOWERS...ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.

HOWEVER...STILL NOT EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS FEATURE AS MID TO UPPER SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH THE OVERALL TREND OF MOSTLY PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COASTAL AREAS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY
FEW TO ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS
TIME AS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR THE
THE BRIEF PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A MILD SHIFT IN THE WIND FLOW IS
FORECAST...AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND REINFORCES THE EAST ATLANTIC HIGH. THIS WILL
BRING A MORE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...THEREFORE INCREASING THE CHANCES
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURES OR MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL DRY FORECAST TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH VCSH ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR COULD RESULT IN MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TJBQ AND TJMZ BTW
29/18Z-29/21Z. EXPECT LLVL EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 70 84 72 / 20 30 40 20
STT 85 72 84 75 / 20 30 40 20

[tropicana]

Showers over Trinidad and Tobago overnight, a pattern that has persisted quite frequently through the month, in this first month of the *dry* season.
Piarco International Airport, Central Trinidad recorded 17mm in the past 18 hours to 8am local time Saturday, Crown Point in Tobago saw 24.6mm in just 6 hours from 2am-8am local time Saturday.

The montly total at Piarco, Trinidad now stands near 140.0mm , well above the seasonal average rainfall for January which is 71mm. It is siginificant considering in January 2010, just 18.4mm of rain was recorded.

But still well below the record wettest January :
PIARCO AIRPORT, TRINIDAD (partial stats)

Jan 2005 232.7mm
Jan 2006 224.2mm
Jan 1984 217.6mm
Jan 1999 157.6mm
Jan 2002 140.2mm
Jan 2011 140mm ** incomplete*

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Hi! The cold surge that began today is still producong northerly winds in the region and the minimum temperatures today were colder than yesterday in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. I will post the onbservation later today but now I want to share an image of the 12z run of the GFS, it is predicting an extremely strong cold surge for next week, if you look closely there are 6 isobars from Guatemala to Honduras and that would produce very strong winds and very cold temepratures, off course if it verifies but it is still in the long range so it still could change a lot in the next runs. Here's the image:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST SAT JAN 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECT AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST A SLIGHT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY...AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALL IN ALL...GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...DECENT BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MAY NOW LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BRINGING A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFT 30/04Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO
INTO FOR PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE AT NOON AST SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PER WSR-88D DATA...HAD A COUPLE OF FIRES THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE CONGRUENCE OF THE BORDERS OF COAMO...SALINAS
AND SANTA ISABEL...AND ALSO NEAR WHERE THE WEST BORDER OF
VILLALBA MEETS THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF JUANA DIAZ. EXPECT
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTH
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A
STEADILY INCREASING WILDFIRE FIRE DANGER. BUT...THIS MAY BE
TEMPERED A BIT BY MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AND FIRST
PART OF MONDAY. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO
USE EXTRA CAUTION AND TO DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THE
PROPER RECEPTACLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 71 81 / 30 40 20 20
STT 72 84 73 84 / 30 40 20 10

[tropicana]

Showers over Trinidad and Tobago overnight, a pattern that has persisted quite frequently through the month, in this first month of the *dry* season.
Piarco International Airport, Central Trinidad recorded 17mm in the past 18 hours to 8am local time Saturday, Crown Point in Tobago saw 24.6mm in just 6 hours from 2am-8am local time Saturday.

The montly total at Piarco, Trinidad now stands near 140.0mm , well above the seasonal average rainfall for January which is 71mm. It is siginificant considering in January 2010, just 18.4mm of rain was recorded.

But still well below the record wettest January :
PIARCO AIRPORT, TRINIDAD (partial stats)

Jan 2005 232.7mm
Jan 2006 224.2mm
Jan 1984 217.6mm
Jan 1999 157.6mm
Jan 2002 140.2mm
Jan 2011 140mm ** incomplete*

-justin-

Piarco Int'l, Central Trinidad received another 32mm of rain in 6 hours ending at 2pm local lime, ( a total of 49mm for the 24 hours which is a normal amount for a rainy season day, not a January day). The monh's total has jumped then to 172.2mm...which is even wetter than December 2010 which saw 153.9mm at the airport. Unofficially, its now the 4th wettest January on record. The wettest January is unlikely to be challenged as the month ends in just 2 days.